Trend and burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2035

Trend and burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2035 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Trend and burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2035 Kangqian Lin, Jie Yang, Huimin Li, Siting Zhong, Xiaoxue Zeng, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7280838/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Alzheimer's Disease (AD) has become a major public health problem affecting the health of the elderly as the global population ages. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of AD in China, predict its future trends, and explore coping strategies, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for public health policy making. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study assessed the underlying prevalence characteristics and trends in AD age-standardized incidence and mortality using a combination of joint point regression models and (Bayesian) age-period-cohort models. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of AD and other dementias in China in 2021 were 151.47 /100 000 and 30.82/10 000, and the age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life year was 562.39 /100 000. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence showed an increasing trend, while the age-standardized mortality declined slightly. Age is a significant risk factor for incidence and mortality in AD and other dementias, with both incidence and mortality increasing significantly with age. Period and cohort effects showed fluctuations in incidence and mortality across time and cohorts. Projection analyses suggest that the standardized incidence and mortality for AD and other dementias will increase steadily between 2022 and 2035. Conclusion: The age-standardized incidence and mortality for AD and other dementias increase significantly with age and are higher for female than for male. Despite a slight decline in mortality in recent years, the age-standardized incidence is still rising and is projected to continue to increase over the next 10 years. Suggesting that the burden of the disease on the public health system may further increase, there is an urgent need to strengthen early screening, diagnosis and interventions to cope with the growing disease burden in the future. Alzheimer's disease forecasts age-period-cohort model Joinpoint regression model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 05 Sep, 2025 Editor invited by journal 06 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 05 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 02 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7280838","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":511420981,"identity":"3655b5c5-46ea-4204-90ab-439e741d5287","order_by":0,"name":"Kangqian Lin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shenzhen Eye Hospital, Shenzhen Eye Medical Center, Southern Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kangqian","middleName":"","lastName":"Lin","suffix":""},{"id":511420982,"identity":"3a3ca5ad-e016-4f3e-b951-8426e3c92001","order_by":1,"name":"Jie Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of 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02:23:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7280838/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7280838/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91149044,"identity":"fa6f6f0b-3716-478d-a410-5d8010494e20","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-12 06:46:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":790903,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TrendandburdenofAlzheimersdisease1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7280838/v1_covered_43ba8543-c041-4dac-ba58-a75abf804606.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Trend and burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2035","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-neurology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nurl","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Neurology](http://bmcneurol.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/nurl","title":"BMC Neurology","twitterHandle":"BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC 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This study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of AD in China, predict its future trends, and explore coping strategies, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for public health policy making.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study assessed the underlying prevalence characteristics and trends in AD age-standardized incidence and mortality using a combination of joint point regression models and (Bayesian) age-period-cohort models.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe age-standardized incidence and mortality of AD and other dementias in China in 2021 were 151.47 /100 000 and 30.82/10 000, and the age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life year was 562.39 /100 000. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence showed an increasing trend, while the age-standardized mortality declined slightly. Age is a significant risk factor for incidence and mortality in AD and other dementias, with both incidence and mortality increasing significantly with age. Period and cohort effects showed fluctuations in incidence and mortality across time and cohorts. Projection analyses suggest that the standardized incidence and mortality for AD and other dementias will increase steadily between 2022 and 2035.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe age-standardized incidence and mortality for AD and other dementias increase significantly with age and are higher for female than for male. Despite a slight decline in mortality in recent years, the age-standardized incidence is still rising and is projected to continue to increase over the next 10 years. 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