Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River

Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River Nijad Emer, Lanzhou Chen, Haijun Wang, Youcheng Song, Quan Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9120836/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Land use and land cover change(LULC)have a large impact on ecosystem service values (ESV), but traditional valuation methods tend to ignore economic differences in crops over time. By integrating high-resolution land-use data (2000–2020), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and spatial econometric techniques, we projected land-use dynamics for 2030 under four alternative scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Economic Development Priority (EDP), Ecological Protection Priority (EPP), and Ecological-Economic Balance (EEB). A novel slope-adaptive ESV assessment framework—validated with high accuracy (Ove Accuracy = 0.95;Kappa = 0.91)—was developed to address topographic heterogeneity in ESV estimation. Under the EDP scenario, built-up land expands by 5.52%, critically low-ESV areas increase by 476.83 km² (a 2.7-fold rise from 2010–2020), and a net ESV loss of 1.04% is observed. In contrast, EPP reduces urban land by 10.19% through active restoration, significantly curbing ESV degradation. High-value ESV zones are concentrated in water bodies and forests, which dominate regional regulating services. The Middle Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MYRUA) illustrates the conflict between urbanization and ESV. Using high-resolution land-use data (2000–2020), the PLUS model, and spatial econometrics, we projected 2030 land-use under four scenarios. The results can more accurately assess social, economic and environmental factors, providing a new solution approach for formulating differentiated ecological environment protection policies in the MYRUA and solving key technical problems in large-scale ecological functional area land use planning. Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Ecosystem services value LULC simulation PLUS model Multi-scenario simulation Middle Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 06 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 25 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 24 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 24 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 22 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 22 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9120836","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":612142066,"identity":"04ce3c32-c827-4125-bc65-3dca65bef3db","order_by":0,"name":"Nijad Emer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wuhan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nijad","middleName":"","lastName":"Emer","suffix":""},{"id":612142067,"identity":"9dc8dafb-099b-4acb-ba82-ab269d9fb2a2","order_by":1,"name":"Lanzhou Chen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZoYEBh4Qg72BDUQxNhCvhecAsVrAqkGERAKRWszZGR5+eFOxTc585huzxzwMNrIbDjA/e4BPi2UzQ7LknDO3jWVu55gb8zCkGW84wGZugE+LwWGGBGnettuJM6Rzt0nzMBxO3HCAh02CgJbk37z/btfPkDwL0vKfKC1p0rwNtxMkJHhBWg4Qp8VyzrHbhjN48r9JzjFINp55mM0Mv5bzZ5JvvKm5LS/BfixN4k2FnWzf8eZneLUAIyUB2QQGUOQSAuwHCCoZBaNgFIyCEQ4Axj1GEHE7EpwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Wuhan University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lanzhou","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":612142068,"identity":"d170c834-2f11-4644-99b3-368dcfb5538e","order_by":2,"name":"Haijun Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wuhan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haijun","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":612142069,"identity":"e514158e-cfdc-42fd-80e6-63d81c649905","order_by":3,"name":"Youcheng Song","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hunan Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Youcheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""},{"id":612142070,"identity":"6f938419-d985-451a-9aeb-5fecd78c0cd7","order_by":4,"name":"Quan Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University of Finance and Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Quan","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-14 08:23:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9120836/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9120836/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105567333,"identity":"78a86e38-39b9-4f4a-a3d5-e488a4e61fb8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:58:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1947410,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"revisedmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9120836/v1_covered_36c74f6b-f476-4707-8b00-972aecdf46bc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Ecosystem services value, LULC simulation, PLUS model, Multi-scenario simulation, Middle Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9120836/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9120836/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLand use and land cover change(LULC)have a large impact on ecosystem service values (ESV), but traditional valuation methods tend to ignore economic differences in crops over time. By integrating high-resolution land-use data (2000\u0026ndash;2020), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and spatial econometric techniques, we projected land-use dynamics for 2030 under four alternative scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Economic Development Priority (EDP), Ecological Protection Priority (EPP), and Ecological-Economic Balance (EEB). A novel slope-adaptive ESV assessment framework\u0026mdash;validated with high accuracy (Ove Accuracy\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.95;Kappa\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.91)\u0026mdash;was developed to address topographic heterogeneity in ESV estimation. Under the EDP scenario, built-up land expands by 5.52%, critically low-ESV areas increase by 476.83 km\u0026sup2; (a 2.7-fold rise from 2010\u0026ndash;2020), and a net ESV loss of 1.04% is observed. In contrast, EPP reduces urban land by 10.19% through active restoration, significantly curbing ESV degradation. High-value ESV zones are concentrated in water bodies and forests, which dominate regional regulating services. The Middle Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MYRUA) illustrates the conflict between urbanization and ESV. Using high-resolution land-use data (2000\u0026ndash;2020), the PLUS model, and spatial econometrics, we projected 2030 land-use under four scenarios. The results can more accurately assess social, economic and environmental factors, providing a new solution approach for formulating differentiated ecological environment protection policies in the MYRUA and solving key technical problems in large-scale ecological functional area land use planning.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-26 17:02:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9120836/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-09T08:46:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-06T12:53:41+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-05T07:43:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"257267977910248214999950570102970743710","date":"2026-03-31T03:43:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"111229398308499444475045874334041425679","date":"2026-03-27T08:08:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-25T15:51:25+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"318644003031670621250920326875374432203","date":"2026-03-25T12:56:18+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-03-25T08:05:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-24T15:03:17+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-03-24T15:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-22T19:13:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2026-03-22T11:38:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9feda767-4985-44ea-a280-cfaa46c58b14","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 26th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":65134945,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology"},{"id":65134946,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology"},{"id":65134947,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":65134948,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-14T12:38:33+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-26 17:02:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9120836","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9120836","identity":"rs-9120836","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}