Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century

Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century Kilian Kuhla, Christian Otto, Michael Puma, Jonas Jaegermeyr This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7348033/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global food security faces rising short-term risks as climate change reshapes crop variability. Combining multi-crop model simulations with agricultural market modeling, we find that under the high-emission scenario RCP 8.5, climate change more than doubles the likelihood of extreme global price peaks for maize (+128%) and rice (+146%) and increases it nearly sixfold for soybean (+496%) by the end of the century. In contrast, the likelihood declines for wheat. Resulting consumption risks vary widely across regions. We identify high production risk, import dependency, a small supplier base, and major exporter status as key drivers. In high-risk regions where several factors overlap, the potential losses are large; for example, in the USA, per-capita maize consumption at risk could equal more than 214 days of recommended caloric intake. Food security strategies must address volatility and be tailored to trade positions, recognizing the role of trade structure in shaping risk. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Scientific community and society/Agriculture Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics climate change food security risk crop variability agent-based model agricultural trade Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7348033","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":498914479,"identity":"e756492d-963a-4425-851e-87d47b36ee4f","order_by":0,"name":"Kilian Kuhla","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8698-1246","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kilian","middleName":"","lastName":"Kuhla","suffix":""},{"id":498914480,"identity":"8538699c-2d45-4513-b8ef-d76c80169153","order_by":1,"name":"Christian Otto","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5500-6774","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christian","middleName":"","lastName":"Otto","suffix":""},{"id":498914481,"identity":"263b6976-b1c2-4842-9e2a-26d20ba45a24","order_by":2,"name":"Michael Puma","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4255-8454","institution":"Columbia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Puma","suffix":""},{"id":498914482,"identity":"63e6f08b-5607-4032-982d-d8fb91311a49","order_by":3,"name":"Jonas Jaegermeyr","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8368-0018","institution":"Columbia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jonas","middleName":"","lastName":"Jaegermeyr","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-11 15:51:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7348033/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7348033/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101752828,"identity":"f55f9cef-a997-4733-9612-d9c77e1aa8ba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 10:33:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":22105385,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"kuhlapre2025climate.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7348033/v1_covered_579d99a0-0c8a-43c9-a3b9-ae117de08734.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"climate change, food security risk, crop variability, agent-based model, agricultural trade","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7348033/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7348033/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Global food security faces rising short-term risks as climate change reshapes crop variability. 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