Detecting desertification dynamics based on time series analysis and spatio- temporal changes of net primary productivity (NPP) in arid regions

Detecting desertification dynamics based on time series analysis and spatio- temporal changes of net primary productivity (NPP) in arid regions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Detecting desertification dynamics based on time series analysis and spatio- temporal changes of net primary productivity (NPP) in arid regions Mohammad Gholami, Morteza Akbari, Ebrahim Mahmoudabadi, Majid Kazemzadeh, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7411841/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Desertification is a major global environmental threat, impacting ecosystems and human livelihoods. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of desertification is crucial for selecting mitigation strategies. Actual Net Primary Productivity (ANPP) has emerged as an efficient index for evaluating this phenomenon. This study detected and investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of desertification hazard in the arid northeastern Iran using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model to estimate ANPP over a 20-year period (2004–2023). Potential Net Primary Productivity (PNPP) was calculated using the Thornthwaite method and ANPP and PNPP were used to calculate Human Net Primary Productivity (HNPP). HNPP was calculated as the difference between ANPP and PNPP. The modified CASA model demonstrated high accuracy and reliability in estimating ANPP for the arid and semi-arid regions, exhibiting an 86% correlation with MODIS ANPP products. The results revealed a concerning level of desertification in the study area, affecting 81.7% of the region. The analysis attributed 35.8% of desertification to climatic factors, 29.4% to the interaction between climatic factors and human activities, and 16.5% solely to human activities. The primary human-induced drivers of desertification included agricultural practices such as traditional livestock farming and irrigated agriculture, which have severely strained the region’s natural resources by disregarding ecosystem resilience and sustainable development principles. The findings help policymakers and environmental planners to develop and implement sustainable land management practices and effective desertification control measures. These measures are essential for mitigating further environmental degradation and safeguarding the region's long-term ecological and economic stability. Human Activities Environmental Changes Remote Sensing Sustainable Development Climatic Factors Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7411841","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":515591847,"identity":"8d0183d5-9b75-4fe3-b910-e43048f28d63","order_by":0,"name":"Mohammad Gholami","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ferdowsi University of Mashhad","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammad","middleName":"","lastName":"Gholami","suffix":""},{"id":515591848,"identity":"056e3e34-0712-47ee-bd8c-1f11e4ced54a","order_by":1,"name":"Morteza 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regions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Human Activities, Environmental Changes, Remote Sensing, Sustainable Development, Climatic Factors","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7411841/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7411841/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDesertification is a major global environmental threat, impacting ecosystems and human livelihoods. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of desertification is crucial for selecting mitigation strategies. Actual Net Primary Productivity (ANPP) has emerged as an efficient index for evaluating this phenomenon. This study detected and investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of desertification hazard in the arid northeastern Iran using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model to estimate ANPP over a 20-year period (2004\u0026ndash;2023). Potential Net Primary Productivity (PNPP) was calculated using the Thornthwaite method and ANPP and PNPP were used to calculate Human Net Primary Productivity (HNPP). HNPP was calculated as the difference between ANPP and PNPP. The modified CASA model demonstrated high accuracy and reliability in estimating ANPP for the arid and semi-arid regions, exhibiting an 86% correlation with MODIS ANPP products. The results revealed a concerning level of desertification in the study area, affecting 81.7% of the region. The analysis attributed 35.8% of desertification to climatic factors, 29.4% to the interaction between climatic factors and human activities, and 16.5% solely to human activities. The primary human-induced drivers of desertification included agricultural practices such as traditional livestock farming and irrigated agriculture, which have severely strained the region\u0026rsquo;s natural resources by disregarding ecosystem resilience and sustainable development principles. The findings help policymakers and environmental planners to develop and implement sustainable land management practices and effective desertification control measures. These measures are essential for mitigating further environmental degradation and safeguarding the region's long-term ecological and economic stability.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Detecting desertification dynamics based on time series analysis and spatio- temporal changes of net primary productivity (NPP) in arid regions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-22 03:43:59","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7411841/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7e38d42d-8305-422e-872d-7be0712f8289","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-03T08:24:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-22 03:43:59","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7411841","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7411841","identity":"rs-7411841","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}