Global Repeating Earthquakes Reveal a Scattered Recurrence Time-Moment Scaling Consistent with Crack Models in a Complex Fault Zone

Global Repeating Earthquakes Reveal a Scattered Recurrence Time-Moment Scaling Consistent with Crack Models in a Complex Fault Zone | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 21 November 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Global Repeating Earthquakes Reveal a Scattered Recurrence Time-Moment Scaling Consistent with Crack Models in a Complex Fault Zone Authors : Binhao Wang 0000-0001-6934-1522 , Baoning Wu 0000-0002-9609-4325 [email protected] , and Yijian Zhou 0000-0002-7205-1769 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176376455.59548849/v1 384 views 139 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Repeating earthquakes are recurrent ruptures of the same asperity along creeping faults, and their recurrence time–moment (Tr–M0) scaling provides key constraints on earthquake physics and fault creep. However, previous studies have reported Tr~M0^(1/6), which contradicts the classic crack model that predicts Tr~M0^(1/3). We compile a set of global repeater catalogs and find a highly scattered Tr–M0 distribution that precludes a meaningful global linear fit. To reveal the true scaling, we first focus on the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault to diagnose the sources of scatter in the Tr–M0 relation. Leveraging a modern catalog, we select repeaters based on quasi-periodicity and temporal persistence, and correct for differences in background creep rate between sequences. These procedures yield a triangular Tr–M0 distribution with a robust lower envelope of slope ~1/3, which we interpret as reflecting total long-term steady fault creep, together with numerous long-recurrence sequences above this lower bound, which likely reflect (1) higher stress drops, and/or (2) local creep-rate variations associated with complex fault structures, and/or (3) earthquake interactions. Furthermore, applying the same selection and correction procedures to global catalogs reveals a similar triangular pattern. Our results suggest that repeater recurrence may still be broadly consistent with the classic crack model, and that the previously reported 1/6 slope mainly reflects an average trend through scattered data influenced by uncorrected long-recurrence cases. Our study supports the applicability of the crack model for estimating slip and highlights the potential of repeaters as high-resolution creep meters. Supplementary Material File (1055951_0_merged_1763566405.pdf) Download 10.80 MB File (main_submitted.pdf) Download 9.79 MB File (suppmaterials.pdf) Download 51.90 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 21 November 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords earthquake physics earthquake recurrence fault creep geophysics heterogeneous fault zone recurrence time-moment scaling repeating earthquake Authors Affiliations Binhao Wang 0000-0001-6934-1522 University of Southern California View all articles by this author Baoning Wu 0000-0002-9609-4325 [email protected] University of California, San Diego View all articles by this author Yijian Zhou 0000-0002-7205-1769 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 384 views 139 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Binhao Wang, Baoning Wu, Yijian Zhou. Global Repeating Earthquakes Reveal a Scattered Recurrence Time-Moment Scaling Consistent with Crack Models in a Complex Fault Zone. Authorea . 21 November 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176376455.59548849/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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