What drives reservoir infrastructure upgrade decisions under deep uncertainty?

What drives reservoir infrastructure upgrade decisions under deep uncertainty? | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 12 December 2025 V1 Latest version Share on What drives reservoir infrastructure upgrade decisions under deep uncertainty? Authors : Jiajia Huang 0000-0001-9834-8416 [email protected] , Wenyan Wu 0000-0003-3907-1570 , Holger Robert Maier 0000-0002-0277-6887 , Justin Douglas Hughes 0000-0003-3092-2201 , Quan J. Wang 0000-0002-8787-2738 , and Yuan Cao Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176556335.53101511/v1 Published Environmental Modelling & Software Version of record Peer review timeline 218 views 136 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Huang et al. (2026) recently developed a comprehensive framework to jointly optimize reservoir operation policies and infrastructure upgrades under deep uncertainty. Building on this framework, this commentary provides several new, yet important, insights into reservoir planning and management under deep uncertainty. First, while the discount rate is frequently treated as a constant economic input, high discount rates may create a false sense of security by making delayed infrastructure upgrades economically preferable. In addition, initially undersized key infrastructure increases the risks of locking systems into long-term underperformance that subsequent infrastructure upgrades and operational adaptations cannot fully rectify. Furthermore, the presence or absence of key infrastructure within the system can reshape infrastructure upgrade priorities, highlighting the importance of having a clear system boundary at the planning stage. These new insights are essential for supporting credible and defensible infrastructure decisions in a climate-sensitive planning environment. Supplementary Material File (commentary_what_drives_reservoir_infrastructure_upgrade_decisions_under_deep_uncertainty.pdf) Download 794.35 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 12 December 2025 Peer review timeline Published Environmental Modelling & Software Version of Record 1 Feb 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords climate change adaptation deep uncertainty infrastructure planning multi-objective optimization northern australia water resource assessment sensitivity analysis water resources management Authors Affiliations Jiajia Huang 0000-0001-9834-8416 [email protected] Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne View all articles by this author Wenyan Wu 0000-0003-3907-1570 Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne View all articles by this author Holger Robert Maier 0000-0002-0277-6887 School of Civil Engineering and Construction Management, Adelaide University View all articles by this author Justin Douglas Hughes 0000-0003-3092-2201 CSIRO View all articles by this author Quan J. Wang 0000-0002-8787-2738 Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne View all articles by this author Yuan Cao Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne View all articles by this author Funding Information Australian Research Council DE210100117 Wenyan Wu Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 218 views 136 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Jiajia Huang, Wenyan Wu, Holger Robert Maier, et al. What drives reservoir infrastructure upgrade decisions under deep uncertainty?. Authorea . 12 December 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176556335.53101511/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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