Representation of Present and Future of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulation over West Africa

Representation of Present and Future of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulation over West Africa | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Representation of Present and Future of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulation over West Africa Felix Olabamiji Ajibola, Stella Abosede Afolayan, Abiola Abayomi Okanlawon, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743422/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This research investigates the representation of present and future of mean and extreme precipitation in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations over West Africa. The ensemble means of eight high- and low-resolution simulations, referred to as ENSEMBLE-H and ENSEMBLE-L, were analyzed for the period 2025–2049. Future mean and extreme precipitation patterns were examined for two sub regions of West Africa: the Sahel and the Guinea Coast. Projected annual rainfall peaks at 250 mm/month in May and 150 mm/month in both August and September. The onset of precipitation is expected between the 35th and 67th day of the year for the Guinea Coast, and between the 135th and 165th day for the Sahel. Cessation days are projected between the 315th and 330th day for the Guinea Coast, and between the 250th and 280th day for the Sahel. The length of the growing season is anticipated to increase, reaching around 10 months for the Guinea Coast and 4 months for the Sahel by 2045–2049. High rainfall events are projected to occur in 2035 and 2036, exceeding normal levels. The spatio-temporal analysis of extreme precipitation shows a more significant increase in the highest one-day precipitation over the Sahel (approximately 30%) compared to the Guinea Coast (less than 20%). Additionally, heavy rainfall events (r10mm) are projected to see a positive change of around 8% over the Guinea Coast and 12% over the Sahel. These results suggest potential future re-greening of the Sahel. A greater positive change in precipitation is projected over the Sahel compared to the Guinea Coast during the 2025–2049 period. CMIP6 HighResMIP Extreme Precipitation Mean Precipitation Climate Change West Africa Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SUPPLIMENTARYchange.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5743422","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":407060690,"identity":"0e50019b-a195-4771-8b5a-390e036e0b46","order_by":0,"name":"Felix Olabamiji Ajibola","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCgw2HGRgsGNgbmBsOMFQwMBgQqUWCgecAI1DLGaK0MDAww7QwMLYRoYW/8XDj4YIKCXke9sbGw7zzDsubszcfYPhRsQ2nFokDQIfNOCNh2MNzsOHgzG2HDXf2HEtg7DlzG7c1IC28bRKM+yUSGw583HaYccONHANmxjbcWuShWux75B82HEicc9ieoBYDqJbEHglgiH1sOJxIUIsh1C/JPTyJDQdnHEtP3nDmWMJBfH6Ru3H88eeCChvbHvbDhz/z1FjbbjjefPDBjwo83pc4gMJtBpMHMNUhAf4GFG4dXsWjYBSMglEwMgEAHgdplNBVJH8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Nigerian Meteorological Agency, National Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Centre, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, PMB 615, Nigeria","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Felix","middleName":"Olabamiji","lastName":"Ajibola","suffix":""},{"id":407060691,"identity":"2119f66e-7646-4a9f-b7d1-fe950a3cf7f8","order_by":1,"name":"Stella Abosede Afolayan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North Carolina A\u0026T State University, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stella","middleName":"Abosede","lastName":"Afolayan","suffix":""},{"id":407060692,"identity":"ed4da72d-0156-4dde-98ed-366519686af0","order_by":2,"name":"Abiola Abayomi Okanlawon","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nigerian Meteorological Agency, National Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Centre, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, PMB 615, Nigeria","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abiola","middleName":"Abayomi","lastName":"Okanlawon","suffix":""},{"id":407060693,"identity":"aba0354c-579e-4c5b-8abd-24565ec2ff81","order_by":3,"name":"Aderonke Temilade Ibiam","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nigerian Meteorological Agency, National Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Centre, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, PMB 615, Nigeria","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aderonke","middleName":"Temilade","lastName":"Ibiam","suffix":""},{"id":407060694,"identity":"589aa0b2-cd2c-43f2-be9c-495a6d4390c8","order_by":4,"name":"Oluwatosin Onajite Itiowe","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nigerian Meteorological Agency, National Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Centre, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, PMB 615, Nigeria","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Oluwatosin","middleName":"Onajite","lastName":"Itiowe","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-31 18:23:05","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743422/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743422/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":74880691,"identity":"bea75e0a-1b2c-4c32-b716-a841f12fd64a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-28 01:58:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1153182,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"changemanuscrpt.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5743422/v1_covered_7c07866d-f443-42bb-a4fc-aa8cfd047a8c.pdf"},{"id":74880182,"identity":"830371e3-c9ff-43ea-8328-54a0992b584f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-28 01:42:25","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2263467,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SUPPLIMENTARYchange.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5743422/v1/99a7fc8f3d5b3fb37fcc7861.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Representation of Present and Future of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulation over West Africa","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"CMIP6 HighResMIP, Extreme Precipitation, Mean Precipitation, Climate Change, West Africa","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743422/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743422/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis research investigates the representation of present and future of mean and extreme precipitation in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations over West Africa. The ensemble means of eight high- and low-resolution simulations, referred to as ENSEMBLE-H and ENSEMBLE-L, were analyzed for the period 2025\u0026ndash;2049. Future mean and extreme precipitation patterns were examined for two sub regions of West Africa: the Sahel and the Guinea Coast. Projected annual rainfall peaks at 250 mm/month in May and 150 mm/month in both August and September. The onset of precipitation is expected between the 35th and 67th day of the year for the Guinea Coast, and between the 135th and 165th day for the Sahel. Cessation days are projected between the 315th and 330th day for the Guinea Coast, and between the 250th and 280th day for the Sahel. The length of the growing season is anticipated to increase, reaching around 10 months for the Guinea Coast and 4 months for the Sahel by 2045\u0026ndash;2049. High rainfall events are projected to occur in 2035 and 2036, exceeding normal levels. The spatio-temporal analysis of extreme precipitation shows a more significant increase in the highest one-day precipitation over the Sahel (approximately 30%) compared to the Guinea Coast (less than 20%). Additionally, heavy rainfall events (r10mm) are projected to see a positive change of around 8% over the Guinea Coast and 12% over the Sahel. These results suggest potential future re-greening of the Sahel. A greater positive change in precipitation is projected over the Sahel compared to the Guinea Coast during the 2025\u0026ndash;2049 period.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Representation of Present and Future of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulation over West Africa","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-01-28 01:42:21","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743422/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"bf361a81-cf87-487f-973a-153d6b4a2646","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-01-29T22:23:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-01-28 01:42:21","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5743422","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5743422","identity":"rs-5743422","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}