Empirical Validation of Vehicle-to-Grid Carbon Impact and Market Economics: Evidence from a UK Municipal Fleet Charging Dataset (2020–2023)

Empirical Validation of Vehicle-to-Grid Carbon Impact and Market Economics: Evidence from a UK Municipal Fleet Charging Dataset (2020–2023) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Empirical Validation of Vehicle-to-Grid Carbon Impact and Market Economics: Evidence from a UK Municipal Fleet Charging Dataset (2020–2023) Princely Kolle Epie This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9646594/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology is increasingly proposed as a mechanism for simultaneous grid decarbonisation and EV-owner revenue generation, but integrated carbon-economic models remain weakly validated against observed fleet charging behaviour. This study empirically validates a V2G carbon impact and market economics framework using 5,459 charging sessions from 69 chargepoints across 61 sites in the Leeds municipal fleet dataset (2020–2023; 59,709.8 kWh total delivered energy). The framework combines Gaussian Process marginal emission factor (MEF) modelling, Rainflow-Arrhenius battery degradation economics and market-revenue decomposition. The empirical mean energy swing is 12.37 kWh, which is + 23.7% above the model assumption and therefore not validated by a mean-error criterion; however, the median energy swing is 10.25 kWh (+ 2.5%), confirming that the model captures central tendency while underestimating the high-energy right tail. Under current market prices and degradation assumptions, both the model and the depot-calibrated Monte Carlo analysis give P(NEB > 0) = 0%, indicating a robust pre-carbon-price viability boundary rather than a modelling failure. Fleet availability is 91.7% in the low-MEF charging window (01:00–06:00) and 93.5% in the high-MEF discharge window (17:00–20:00), confirming favourable structural alignment for depot-based V2G. Nevertheless, only 27.9% of unmanaged sessions are actually carbon-beneficial; delaying charging to the low-MEF window increases the expected mean CO2 saving from − 0.150 to + 1.90 kg per session, a 14.6x improvement achievable through software control alone. The observed utilisation rate of 24.8 sessions per chargepoint per year is 14.7x below a daily-cycling assumption, materially correcting national-scale CO2 projections for depot fleets. The depot carbon break-even price is approximately GBP120-140/tCO2, within reach of medium-term UK ETS escalation pathways. Energy Engineering Environmental Economics Applied Statistics vehicle-to-grid marginal emission factor battery degradation net economic benefit smart charging EV fleet carbon abatement Bass diffusion UK ETS Cournot oligopoly Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9646594","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":636458333,"identity":"0819f144-a992-4a6a-999d-57c95305bc62","order_by":0,"name":"Princely Kolle Epie","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6970-3423","institution":"Sakarya University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Princely","middleName":"Kolle","lastName":"Epie","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-07 20:51:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9646594/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9646594/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108965400,"identity":"08a8a3c3-08d2-4c22-ba07-5b2531520560","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-11 09:33:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":839093,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript01.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9646594/v1_covered_4c6188f5-1ef9-4f97-99bf-639410736a59.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEmpirical Validation of Vehicle-to-Grid Carbon Impact and Market Economics: Evidence from a UK Municipal Fleet Charging Dataset (2020–2023)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"none","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"vehicle-to-grid, marginal emission factor, battery degradation, net economic benefit, smart charging, EV fleet, carbon abatement, Bass diffusion, UK ETS, Cournot oligopoly","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9646594/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9646594/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eVehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology is increasingly proposed as a mechanism for simultaneous grid decarbonisation and EV-owner revenue generation, but integrated carbon-economic models remain weakly validated against observed fleet charging behaviour. This study empirically validates a V2G carbon impact and market economics framework using 5,459 charging sessions from 69 chargepoints across 61 sites in the Leeds municipal fleet dataset (2020\u0026ndash;2023; 59,709.8 kWh total delivered energy). The framework combines Gaussian Process marginal emission factor (MEF) modelling, Rainflow-Arrhenius battery degradation economics and market-revenue decomposition. The empirical mean energy swing is 12.37 kWh, which is +\u0026thinsp;23.7% above the model assumption and therefore not validated by a mean-error criterion; however, the median energy swing is 10.25 kWh (+\u0026thinsp;2.5%), confirming that the model captures central tendency while underestimating the high-energy right tail. Under current market prices and degradation assumptions, both the model and the depot-calibrated Monte Carlo analysis give P(NEB\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0)\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0%, indicating a robust pre-carbon-price viability boundary rather than a modelling failure. Fleet availability is 91.7% in the low-MEF charging window (01:00\u0026ndash;06:00) and 93.5% in the high-MEF discharge window (17:00\u0026ndash;20:00), confirming favourable structural alignment for depot-based V2G. Nevertheless, only 27.9% of unmanaged sessions are actually carbon-beneficial; delaying charging to the low-MEF window increases the expected mean CO2 saving from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.150 to +\u0026thinsp;1.90 kg per session, a 14.6x improvement achievable through software control alone. The observed utilisation rate of 24.8 sessions per chargepoint per year is 14.7x below a daily-cycling assumption, materially correcting national-scale CO2 projections for depot fleets. The depot carbon break-even price is approximately GBP120-140/tCO2, within reach of medium-term UK ETS escalation pathways.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Empirical Validation of Vehicle-to-Grid Carbon Impact and Market Economics: Evidence from a UK Municipal Fleet Charging Dataset (2020–2023)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-11 09:29:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9646594/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"48059b44-3f2d-46d9-aa05-c3d1f56f192c","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 11th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":67743487,"name":"Energy Engineering"},{"id":67743488,"name":"Environmental Economics"},{"id":67743489,"name":"Applied Statistics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-11T09:29:55+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-11 09:29:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9646594","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9646594","identity":"rs-9646594","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}