Rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessment for the 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga: a bespoke approach and lessons identified

Rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessment for the 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga: a bespoke approach and lessons identified | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessment for the 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga: a bespoke approach and lessons identified Alana M. Weir, James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Josh Hayes, and 12 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4378687/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract When disasters occur, rapid impact assessments are required to direct response priorities, support in-country efforts and inform the mobilisation of aid. The 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, and the resulting atmospheric shockwave, ashfall, underwater mass disturbance and tsunami, caused substantial impacts across the Kingdom of Tonga. Volcanic impacts of the scale observed after the eruption are rare, necessitating a reliance on international advice and assistance. The situation was complicated by the loss of Tonga’s international submarine fibreoptic cable, causing a complete loss of communications for approximately 20 days, along with border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A need emerged for a rapid remote volcanic impact assessment and provision of specialist advice to help inform the response of international partners. Here we present a novel methodology for conducting rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessments, conducted over a 10-day period following the eruption. We used three different hazard models for ashfall thickness across the main island of Tongatapu and available asset information and vulnerability functions for buildings, agriculture, electricity networks, water supply and roads, to provide initial estimates of losses due to ashfall from the 15 January eruption. For buildings, we estimated losses, both as total losses and as percentages of the total replacement cost of buildings on Tongatapu. For agriculture, we made probabilistic estimates of production losses for three different crop classes. For ashfall cleanup, we estimated ranges of ashfall volumes requiring cleanup from road surfaces and roofs. For water supply, electricity networks and roads, our analysis was limited to assessing the exposure of important assets to ashfall, as we had insufficient information on system configurations to take the analysis further. Key constraints to our analysis were the limited nature of critical infrastructure asset inventories, and the lack of volcanic vulnerability models for tropical regions including Pacific Island nations. Key steps towards iteratively improving rapid remote impacts assessments will include developing vulnerability functions for tropical environments, including Pacific islands, as well as ground-truthing estimated losses from remote approaches against in-person impact assessment campaigns. risk assessment loss assessment disaster risk reduction volcanic risk Pacific Islands Tonga Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4378687","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":318041933,"identity":"fd572c2a-d3c9-495a-8e25-18975e84ad18","order_by":0,"name":"Alana M. 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The 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, and the resulting atmospheric shockwave, ashfall, underwater mass disturbance and tsunami, caused substantial impacts across the Kingdom of Tonga. Volcanic impacts of the scale observed after the eruption are rare, necessitating a reliance on international advice and assistance. The situation was complicated by the loss of Tonga\u0026rsquo;s international submarine fibreoptic cable, causing a complete loss of communications for approximately 20 days, along with border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A need emerged for a rapid remote volcanic impact assessment and provision of specialist advice to help inform the response of international partners.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHere we present a novel methodology for conducting rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessments, conducted over a 10-day period following the eruption. We used three different hazard models for ashfall thickness across the main island of Tongatapu and available asset information and vulnerability functions for buildings, agriculture, electricity networks, water supply and roads, to provide initial estimates of losses due to ashfall from the 15 January eruption.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor buildings, we estimated losses, both as total losses and as percentages of the total replacement cost of buildings on Tongatapu. For agriculture, we made probabilistic estimates of production losses for three different crop classes. For ashfall cleanup, we estimated ranges of ashfall volumes requiring cleanup from road surfaces and roofs. For water supply, electricity networks and roads, our analysis was limited to assessing the exposure of important assets to ashfall, as we had insufficient information on system configurations to take the analysis further. 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