Group Size as a Trade Off Between Fertility and Predation Risk: Implications for Social Evolution

Cluster analysis reveals a fractal pattern in the sizes of baboon groups, with peaks at ∼20, ∼40, ∼80 and ∼160. Although all baboon species individually exhibit this pattern, the two largest are mainly characteristic of the hamadryas and gelada. We suggest that these constitute three pairs of linear oscillators (20/40, 40/80 and 80/160), where in each case the higher value is set by limits on female fertility and the lower by predation risk. The lower pair of oscillators form an ESS in woodland baboons, with choice of oscillator being determined by local predation risk. Female fertility rates would naturally prevent baboons from achieving the highest oscillator with any regularity; nonetheless, hamadryas and gelada have been able to break through this fertility ‘glass ceiling’ and we suggest that they have been able to do so by using substructuring (based partly on using males as ‘hired guns’). This seems to have allowed them to increase group size significantly so as to occupy higher predation risk habitats (thereby creating the upper oscillator).