When and how do national CO2 emissions peak? The role of crises and structural change

Abstract We empirically investigate the timing of CO2 emissions peaks in all major economies 1965-2019, and the effects of economic crises on the economic and structural drivers of emissions. We show that in all but two countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession, by the combined effect of lower GDP growth and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. Almost all peaking countries have returned to economic growth post-crisis, implying that absolute decoupling is possible, also over several decades, and that structural change – not lost economic activity – was the key driver of emission peaks. In non-peaking countries, the GDP growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or rather increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms