A Globally Relevant Data-Driven Assessment of Carbon Leakage from Forestry

A Globally Relevant Data-Driven Assessment of Carbon Leakage from Forestry | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article A Globally Relevant Data-Driven Assessment of Carbon Leakage from Forestry Adam Daigneault, Brent Sohngen, Ethan Belair, Peter Ellis This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3596881/v3 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 3 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) practices are widely recognized as efficient natural climate solutions. However, leakage accounting for these practices often relies on limited analysis and ad hoc reasoning, leading to integrity concerns and underinvestment in CSF. This study proposes a data-intensive, dynamic economic-ecological modeling approach to estimating regional CSF leakage, with global applicability. Results show how leakage varies by CSF activity, location, forest type, timeframe, and implementation rate. Critically, we show that widely cited harvest leakage estimates ignore complex forest dynamics and are a poor proxy for the metric most applicable to CSF implementation: carbon leakage. While harvest leakage is nearly always positive, our results demonstrate that some project designs can result in beneficial carbon spillovers, or negative carbon leakage. These results improve the evidence base for robust leakage quantification in CSF-based projects, enabling more accurate accounting and thereby ensuring credible climate benefits. These results are relevant in a carbon markets context, where robust leakage accounting would help safeguard the credibility of ecosystem service payments, but are also applicable to traditional, non-carbon markets conservation projects seeking to quantify carbon mitigation impacts. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Biological sciences/Ecology/Forest ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Scientific community and society/Forestry Natural climate solutions Climate smart forestry Improved forest management Climate change policy Carbon offsets Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 3 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3596881","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":400103457,"identity":"85506d02-8257-4675-8367-d3cd05f80385","order_by":0,"name":"Adam Daigneault","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABE0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCBCBmY+CBcAoY5BgYGBtATAhJWIuBgTHRWhhgWhJhKnFq4W9PfrqBocxORj66+eBnHoM/6WvbD7c9+MBgI7vhAHYtEmeemd1gOJfMY3jnWLI0j4FB7rYzie2GMxjSjHFpYbiRYHaDsY2Zx3BGjgFEy4HENmkehsOJuLTI30j/BtRSD9SS//k3UEu62fmHbdJ/GP7j1GJwIwdky2EeeYkcNpAtQEuBtjAwHMCpxfDMm7IbCeeO8xhIpJlZzjEwNtx242GbZI9BsvFMHFrkjqdvu/GhrNpefkby4xtvKuTkzc6nP5P4UWEn24fL+yCQAHIhqgIDPMphQL6BCEWjYBSMglEwMgEAODlhoWmbMGEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8287-8727","institution":"University of Maine","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Adam","middleName":"","lastName":"Daigneault","suffix":""},{"id":400103458,"identity":"0a5ee074-409d-4e63-835a-6defed23e48e","order_by":1,"name":"Brent Sohngen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9094-160X","institution":"Ohio State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brent","middleName":"","lastName":"Sohngen","suffix":""},{"id":400103459,"identity":"a957941f-4bd2-45aa-97cd-75919ee3d858","order_by":2,"name":"Ethan Belair","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Nature Conservancy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ethan","middleName":"","lastName":"Belair","suffix":""},{"id":400103460,"identity":"c5ca57ec-3712-4915-ab8f-bed307075f1c","order_by":3,"name":"Peter Ellis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Nature Conservancy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Ellis","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2023-11-11 18:35:07","currentVersionCode":3,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3596881/v3","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3596881/v3","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91455694,"identity":"a4ca30fb-47dc-4a15-b046-ccc0217810d7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-16 16:14:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1537204,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ERLLeakageManuscriptResearchSquare.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3596881/v3_covered_f084f42c-2ac9-42a2-8061-754096f848d3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eA Globally Relevant Data-Driven Assessment of Carbon Leakage from Forestry\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Natural climate solutions, Climate smart forestry, Improved forest management, Climate change policy, Carbon offsets","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3596881/v3","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3596881/v3","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate Smart Forestry (CSF) practices are widely recognized as efficient natural climate\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003esolutions. However, leakage accounting for these practices often relies on limited analysis and\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ead hoc reasoning, leading to integrity concerns and underinvestment in CSF. This study\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eproposes a data-intensive, dynamic economic-ecological modeling approach to estimating\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eregional CSF leakage, with global applicability. Results show how leakage varies by CSF\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eactivity, location, forest type, timeframe, and implementation rate. Critically, we show that widely\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ecited harvest leakage estimates ignore complex forest dynamics and are a poor proxy for the\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003emetric most applicable to CSF implementation: carbon leakage. While harvest leakage is nearly\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ealways positive, our results demonstrate that some project designs can result in beneficial\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ecarbon spillovers, or negative carbon leakage. 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