Indonesia’s Net Tax Revenue Resilience After COVID-19: Controlled Interrupted Time Series, 2015–2025

Indonesia’s Net Tax Revenue Resilience After COVID-19: Controlled Interrupted Time Series, 2015–2025 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Indonesia’s Net Tax Revenue Resilience After COVID-19: Controlled Interrupted Time Series, 2015–2025 Hendra Hendra This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9103123/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Purpose: Public financial management systems are tested by their ability to sustain revenue during severe disruption. This study examines whether Indonesia’s Directorate General of Taxes (DJP) real net tax revenue shows resistance, recovery, and renewal after the COVID-19 shock, and whether post-2022 changes are tax-specific relative to fiscal comparators. Design/methodology/approach: Using annual data for 2015–2025 (N = 11) in constant 2015 IDR, we estimate segmented regression interrupted time series (ITS) models and comparator-adjusted (controlled) ITS models. Non-tax revenue (PNBP) is the primary comparator and customs and excise revenue (DJBC) is a robustness comparator. To reflect annual coding constraints, a policy-aligned specification represents three fiscal contexts: the 2020–2021 COVID-19 tax incentives regime, VAT exposure at 11% from April 2022, and the 2022 Voluntary Disclosure Program (PPS). Findings: Baseline ITS indicates a large shock-year contraction in 2020 (about IDR 222.9 trillion, 19.5%) followed by a steeper post-2020 growth trajectory (about IDR 75.6 trillion per year). In the policy-aligned model, VAT exposure is associated with a persistent level uplift (about IDR 141.6 trillion per full-year exposure). Controlled ITS suggests post-2022 renewal that is stronger for tax revenue than for PNBP, while DJBC provides a weaker robustness pattern. Originality/value: The study contributes a low-frequency diagnostic framework for fiscal resilience in PFM that combines annual ITS with fiscal comparators and falsification and sensitivity checks to diagnose whether post-shock revenue paths reflect cyclical rebound or tax-specific structural renewal, informing revenue stabilisation and performance monitoring in PFM. Health sciences/Diseases Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Health sciences/Health care Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing fiscal resilience interrupted time series tax revenue public financial management VAT reform fiscal comparator Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files DatasetFinal.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 17 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 09 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 08 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9103123","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":631528475,"identity":"d141d790-2ea3-4e6b-a961-bb4cade8d35a","order_by":0,"name":"Hendra Hendra","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDAC9sbGxz8MbOT4IVxmIrTwHD5szFCQZizZQLQWibQ0YYYPhxI3HCBWi8GZM2bMBQYHEjcfP3tMgqHCOrGB/YwBfi3He8wezzC4Y7ztTF6aBMOZ9MQGnhwCWs6cMTfgMXgmu+1AjpkEY9vhxAYGQlpuAFXyGBxm3Nz/BqjlH1AL/xtCWtLSpIFaFDdIgGxpAGqRIGCL5JnDhw1nGKQZS9x4Y2yRcCzduE3iWQFeLXzHGxsffPgDjMr+HMMbH2qsZfv5kzfg1YIKEoCYjQT1o2AUjIJRMApwAADtI0xBdT+/BQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Independent researcher","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hendra","middleName":"","lastName":"Hendra","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-12 09:41:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9103123/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9103123/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108491394,"identity":"39fafd04-78be-4cbd-a736-b829eae456ea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-05 09:53:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1098571,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptdraftV3.8.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9103123/v1_covered_347099c5-5b18-4228-854e-12c16b940313.pdf"},{"id":108241098,"identity":"3a31c02e-0aee-479d-96f0-821a7af7fdb6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-30 20:44:09","extension":"xlsx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":9846,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DatasetFinal.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9103123/v1/c51d6f26c162bef1b13dd46a.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Indonesia’s Net Tax Revenue Resilience After COVID-19: Controlled Interrupted Time Series, 2015–2025","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"fiscal resilience, interrupted time series, tax revenue, public financial management, VAT reform, fiscal comparator","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9103123/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9103123/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePurpose:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e Public financial management systems are tested by their ability to sustain revenue during severe disruption. This study examines whether Indonesia’s Directorate General of Taxes (DJP) real net tax revenue shows resistance, recovery, and renewal after the COVID-19 shock, and whether post-2022 changes are tax-specific relative to fiscal comparators.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDesign/methodology/approach:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e Using annual data for 2015–2025 (N = 11) in constant 2015 IDR, we estimate segmented regression interrupted time series (ITS) models and comparator-adjusted (controlled) ITS models. Non-tax revenue (PNBP) is the primary comparator and customs and excise revenue (DJBC) is a robustness comparator. 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