A Crisis-Proof Electrical Power System: Desirable Characteristics and Investment Decision Support Approaches

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global economic crisis, leading to many lessons, concerns, and reflections beyond health issues. The crisis has impacted practically all sectors of the economy, including the electricity sector. In Brazil, the decrease in electricity demand during the first wave of the pandemic was more intense and rapid than during the 2001-02 rationing. It is uncertain whether new health crises will occur, but the COVID-19 crisis has intensified the debate regarding the expansion planning of the electricity sector under uncertainties. This is especially true in Brazil, where there have been constant crises in the last 20 years, with different origins and natures (political, financial, economic, social), but with similar impacts on demand. This article presents analysis proposals that aim to provide additional elements to aid in the planning process for the expansion of the electrical system in an environment of constant crises. The results suggest that more conservative demand projections should be considered during the planning stage and that matrices with a more flexible generation supply profile respond more adequately and cause fewer distortions in the electricity market.