Climate Change Impact on Egypt's Wind Energy Future: A CMIP6-Based Assessment of Power Output

Climate Change Impact on Egypt's Wind Energy Future: A CMIP6-Based Assessment of Power Output | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate Change Impact on Egypt's Wind Energy Future: A CMIP6-Based Assessment of Power Output Mohammed Magdy Hamed, Mohamed Tarek Sobh, Ahmed Raouf El-Mallawany, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8424654/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Egypt has the capacity to generate substantial energy from renewable sources, particularly wind power. Egypt has invested heavily in wind farms and aims to further increase the share of wind energy in its overall energy portfolio. This made it crucial to evaluate the effects of climate change on future wind energy production. This study employed Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 to project wind speed and temperature, which were used to simulate power output from nine wind turbines across Egypt under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3–7.0, and 5-8.5. EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3, and CESM2-WACCM GCMs were selected as the best-performing against ERA5 data in the historical period using the robust statistical metric Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The best GCMs were bias corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique. The performance of nine different wind turbine models (T1–T9) was evaluated, confirming that T1 and T2 maintained the highest capacity ratios across historical conditions, reaching maximums of 68.0–76.5% and 59.5–68%, respectively. Meteorological projections indicated a global warming trend and a decrease in mean wind speed by 2100; notably, SSP5-8.5 projects the highest mean temperature (28°C) and the lowest mean wind speed (3.8 m/sec). Future projections for T1 and T2 indicate a positive power increase in key locations, such as Ras Gareb and the South of Egypt, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are crucial for energy planners and policymakers, providing essential data to enhance the resilience and strategic development of Egypt's wind energy sector under a changing climate. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Wind Energy Wind Turbines ERA5-Land Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Global Climate Models (GCMs) Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 25 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 31 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 29 Dec, 2025 Editor invited by journal 25 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 22 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8424654","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":566716943,"identity":"fac33541-f1a2-43ed-b843-3b0d999cd92a","order_by":0,"name":"Mohammed Magdy Hamed","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammed","middleName":"Magdy","lastName":"Hamed","suffix":""},{"id":566716944,"identity":"85a47d9b-1755-4542-8a17-c2f41a7a1fc9","order_by":1,"name":"Mohamed Tarek Sobh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Arab Academy for 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Output","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Wind Energy, Wind Turbines, ERA5-Land, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Global Climate Models (GCMs), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE)","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8424654/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8424654/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEgypt has the capacity to generate substantial energy from renewable sources, particularly wind power. Egypt has invested heavily in wind farms and aims to further increase the share of wind energy in its overall energy portfolio. This made it crucial to evaluate the effects of climate change on future wind energy production. This study employed Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 to project wind speed and temperature, which were used to simulate power output from nine wind turbines across Egypt under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3\u0026ndash;7.0, and 5-8.5. EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3, and CESM2-WACCM GCMs were selected as the best-performing against ERA5 data in the historical period using the robust statistical metric Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The best GCMs were bias corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique. The performance of nine different wind turbine models (T1\u0026ndash;T9) was evaluated, confirming that T1 and T2 maintained the highest capacity ratios across historical conditions, reaching maximums of 68.0\u0026ndash;76.5% and 59.5\u0026ndash;68%, respectively. Meteorological projections indicated a global warming trend and a decrease in mean wind speed by 2100; notably, SSP5-8.5 projects the highest mean temperature (28\u0026deg;C) and the lowest mean wind speed (3.8 m/sec). Future projections for T1 and T2 indicate a positive power increase in key locations, such as Ras Gareb and the South of Egypt, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are crucial for energy planners and policymakers, providing essential data to enhance the resilience and strategic development of Egypt's wind energy sector under a changing climate.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate Change Impact on Egypt's Wind Energy Future: A CMIP6-Based Assessment of Power Output","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-30 07:36:06","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8424654/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-26T04:10:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-22T12:16:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"321421742213785982266741140380671935439","date":"2026-02-01T13:01:41+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-12T07:44:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"209686174672512151252932997536331366511","date":"2025-12-31T11:39:26+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"301556679660767355483804736836146741973","date":"2025-12-29T07:48:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-29T05:10:40+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-25T20:01:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-12-24T07:01:24+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-24T06:59:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-12-22T11:48:35+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4c93f377-7010-4901-b498-b4555f2fd0cb","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":60316685,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":60316686,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-03T12:38:09+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-30 07:36:06","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8424654","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8424654","identity":"rs-8424654","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}