Behavioral and Temporal Dynamics of Child Pedestrian Crash Injury Patterns: Evidence from Random Parameter Modeling

Behavioral and Temporal Dynamics of Child Pedestrian Crash Injury Patterns: Evidence from Random Parameter Modeling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Behavioral and Temporal Dynamics of Child Pedestrian Crash Injury Patterns: Evidence from Random Parameter Modeling Sazzad Bin Bashar Polock, Michael Starewich, Swastika Barua, Anannya Ghosh Tusti, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9306536/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the behavioral, environmental, and roadway-related determinants of injury severity in crashes involving child pedestrians (aged under 15), utilizing six years (2017–2022) of crash data from Texas. A random-parameter logit model is employed to account for unobserved heterogeneity in driver behavior, roadway context, temporal conditions, and environmental factors. The results reveal that higher injury severities are significantly associated with crashes occurring on two-lane, two-way roads, at curved alignments, and in areas lacking traffic control, where driver expectancy and pedestrian visibility may be compromised. In contrast, crashes involving backing maneuvers and those in large urban areas are more likely to result in no or minor injuries, possibly reflecting lower vehicular speeds and improved pedestrian-supportive infrastructure. The analysis also identifies year-to-year variability in the effects of key risk factors such as distraction, speeding, and roadway features, indicating the presence of temporal instability in crash dynamics. Crashes occurring during morning and late evening hours are consistently associated with greater injury severity, showing the role of visibility, traffic conditions, and behavioral factors such as driver alertness. These findings have important implications for child pedestrian safety programs and support targeted countermeasures, including improved lighting, traffic calming, signalization at uncontrolled sites, and expanded school-zone protections. By incorporating a behavioral safety lens and accounting for time-varying effects, this study contributes valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to reduce child pedestrian injuries through context-sensitive and evidence-based interventions. Physical sciences/Engineering Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Biological sciences/Psychology Social science/Psychology Health sciences/Risk factors Child pedestrian injury severity random parameter unobserved heterogeneity temporal instability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Highlights.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 19 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 07 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 03 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 02 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9306536","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":625924826,"identity":"530e4040-d0df-443e-86a1-68351071306e","order_by":0,"name":"Sazzad Bin Bashar Polock","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Texas State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sazzad","middleName":"Bin Bashar","lastName":"Polock","suffix":""},{"id":625924829,"identity":"be79caa9-6f8f-425e-94e7-377bc427d757","order_by":1,"name":"Michael Starewich","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Texas State 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