A Bayesian-Rational Framework for Conspiracy Theories

In our present era of fractured politics, social media, and fake news, conspiracy theories are as prominent as ever. While conspiracy theories are often dismissed as pathological or irrational reasoning, belief in at least some conspiracy theories could arise from a Bayesian rational system that is merely wrong, rather than truly irrational. This paper lays out a framework for understanding how conspiracy theories could arise from rational Bayesian cognition, identifying four potential sources for conspiracy theory belief in a primarily rational framework: elevated prior belief in CTs, different likelihoods, missing non-conspiratorial explanations, and non-epistemic utilities.