Maddening intermittence of rain and two types of critical transitions to monsoon

Abstract According to folk knowledge, in some years, monsoon comes as a thundering elephant, while in others, it enters gently, like a deer, or sets foot erratic like a chicken. The "elephant" brings good continuous rains and prosperity, while the "deer" or the "chicken" bode a dry spell and a ruinous planting season for farmers. The classical understanding of monsoon onset implies a sudden increase in precipitation and sustainable rains that only fit the "elephant" case. Here, we show that there are two types of critical transitions to monsoon: a direct transition, with a sudden increase in precipitation, and a two/multiple-step transition, with a dry spell after initial rain. We present evidence that 70$\%$ of the last 47 years show two/multiple-step transition, which went overlooked. We uncover that the cause of rainfall cessation is the hidden phenomenon of intermittence emerging between two successive phase transitions. Remarkably, the second type of transition prevails under climate change. Our discovery fills the gap in understanding the transition to monsoon and paves the way to explore its climate resilience in India and other tropical countries.