Safeguarding Food Security is the Key to Unlocking the Land-Use Trilemma and Enabling Climate–Biodiversity Policy Synergies

Safeguarding Food Security is the Key to Unlocking the Land-Use Trilemma and Enabling Climate–Biodiversity Policy Synergies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Safeguarding Food Security is the Key to Unlocking the Land-Use Trilemma and Enabling Climate–Biodiversity Policy Synergies Hancheng Dai, Xiaotian Ma, Petr Havlík, Chao Yue, David Leclère, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8374204/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The growing reliance on land-based approaches for climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation intensifies global competition for finite land resources. However, their compounded food-security impacts remain inadequately assessed because most evidence evaluates climate and biodiversity objectives in isolation. Here we employ an integrated global biosphere management modelling framework that incorporates biodiversity-priority layers and Gaussian-process emulation to quantify trade-offs among land-sector net greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity intactness (BII) and food security. Results show that combined climate-biodiversity strategies effectively curb emissions and slow biodiversity loss, yet simultaneously increase global food prices by 57% and leave 368 million more people undernourished by 2050 compared to the baseline case, primarily in vulnerable Global South regions. The emulator reveals strongly non-linear trade-offs, with undernourishment accelerating as mitigation stringency increases and steepening under stricter protection as land competition displaces agriculture. While financial compensation equivalent to 0.39% of global Gross Domestic Product has proven potential to narrow the global North-South food-security divide, implementation schemes can be refined through collaborative global efforts to fully unlock its value. These findings necessitate coordinated biodiversity and climate governance that reconciles planetary boundaries with human welfare, highlighting the urgent need for technical and financial innovations to decouple nutrition security from cropland expansion. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx SI of Safeguarding Food Security is the Key to Unlocking the Land-Use Trilemma and Enabling Climate–Biodiversity Policy Synergies Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8374204","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":586049686,"identity":"3a8b756f-8606-47d0-a29c-d92280324d92","order_by":0,"name":"Hancheng 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