Rox Index Variation as Predictor of Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients. Calderón Hospital Quito

Background: During the pandemic, Emergency departments were overcrowded with critically ill patients and confronted ethical dilemmas to assign respiratory support to them due to scarce resources. Quick tools to evaluate patients at admission were needed; many scores were used but inaccurate to predict outcomes. The Rox Index is an easy and fast score that reflects the respiratory status in acute respiratory failure patients, this score could predict the outcome of covid 19 patients. Hypothesis: The 24-hour difference in the Rox Index discriminate accurately the mortality and needs for mechanical ventilation of patients with covid-19. Methods: Study design: Prospective analytic study. Population: 204 Patients admitted to the emergency department from May to August 2020. Data were collected from the clinical records. The Rox Index was calculated at admission and 24h later, the difference was used to establish the outcome, a logistic regression model adjusting for age, sex, presence of comorbidities and disease severity to build and perform ROC analysis. Results: Difference in respiratory ROX Index between admission and 24h is a good predictor for death AUC 0.92 and for mechanic ventilation AUC: 0.75. Each decrease in one unit of the difference at 24h had an Odds Ratio for death risk: 1.48 (95%CI: 1.31-1.67) and for mechanic ventilation: 1.16 (95%IC: 1.1-1.23). Conclusion: The 24-hour variation of Rox Index has good predictive value and allows healthcare professionals to identify which patients will benefit from invasive treatment, especially in low resource settings where emergency physicians deal with survival.