Does aging population structure affect economic growth through human capital?

Does aging population structure affect economic growth through human capital? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Does aging population structure affect economic growth through human capital? juan luo, Xu Ke This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6160168/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper takes the relationship between population aging, human capital and economic growth as the research object, and makes an in-depth discussion from the perspective of age distribution of the elderly population. With the acceleration of global population aging, the proportion of the elderly population in the total population is increasing year by year, which has brought profound impact on economic and social development. However, the age distribution of the elderly population also has an important impact on economic growth. Through the construction of three panel models, this paper draws the following conclusions: first, population aging has a complex nonlinear impact on economic growth. With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, the economic growth shows an inverted U-shaped relationship, showing a situation of "increasing first and then decreasing". Secondly, the impact of the elderly at different ages on economic growth is also different. Finally, human capital plays a moderating role in population aging and economic growth. Improving the level of human capital of the elderly population can alleviate the negative impact of population aging on economic growth and promote sustainable economic development. Health sciences/Health care/Geriatrics Health sciences/Health care/Health care economics Health sciences/Health care/Public health Health sciences/Health care/Quality of life population aging age distribution human capital economic growth Figures Figure 1 1 Introduction Exploring the impact of population aging on economic growth is an increasingly prominent and important issue in the current social development. However, the age distribution of the elderly population, that is, the proportion of elderly people in different age groups, also has an important impact on economic growth. From the perspective of age distribution of the elderly population, this paper will deeply explore the relationship between population aging, human capital and economic growth. In the past few decades, technological advances and improvements in medical care have led to increasing lifespans. At the same time, demographic changes also bring new challenges and opportunities. The aging of the population not only means changes in the labor market, but also has a profound impact on various fields such as education, health care, and social security. From the perspective of human capital, the increase of the elderly population will have an impact on health human capital and education human capital. As the most important component of economic activities, human capital not only directly enters the production function as a factor of production, but also enters the production function as a factor of production. The change of human capital will also affect a series of variables that determine economic growth, such as technological progress and material capital accumulation. Human capital plays an indispensable role in the process of population age structure affecting economic growth. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the adjustment of human capital in the process of aging and fewer children affecting economic growth and to find the new driving force of economic growth. However, population aging is not a short-term problem, its development has phased characteristics. Therefore, this challenge needs to be understood and addressed from multiple perspectives. First of all, it is necessary to deeply study the impact of population aging, and study the direction and degree of influence of population aging at different stages on economic growth. Secondly, it is necessary to pay attention to the age distribution of the elderly population, and improve the human capital level of the elderly population by expanding education expenditure and increasing training. Finally, there is a need to balance the development needs of older people of different ages to ensure that they all receive the respect and welfare they deserve in an aging society. In general, there is a complex and close relationship between population aging, human capital and economic growth. Understanding and addressing these relationships will help us better address the challenges and opportunities of an aging population to achieve sustainable economic development. 2 Literature review and research hypotheses 2.1 Impact of population aging on economic growth Exploring the impact of population aging on economic growth is an increasingly prominent issue in current social development. As many countries and regions are facing significant changes in population structure, especially the increasing proportion of elderly population, studying this issue is not only helpful to understand the trend of economic growth, but also has important guiding significance for formulating relevant policy measures. It can be seen from the studies of multiple regions and economies that the impact of population aging on economic growth is complex and multifaceted, and the main conclusions are as follows. Negative impact: Yue Liu and Liming Luke Chen (2023) analyzed the data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, and found that population aging significantly hindered economic growth, and industrial structure upgrading, as an intermediary, affected the overall progress and rationalization [1] of industry. Karim et al. used ARDL model for Malaysia to find that population aging has a negative impact on economic growth in the long run, while the decline of fertility rate is beneficial to long-term economic growth. This finding provides important empirical reference [2] for the formulation of population policy. The study of Zihao Wei (2023) specifically analyzed the development status of aging in Beijing, and believed that aging inhibited residents' consumption, reduced the economic benefits of labor, and promoted the optimization [3] of industrial structure. Positive impact: Foreign scholar A. A. Bawazir et al. (2021) found through A study of ten Middle Eastern countries that both the proportion of elderly population and the proportion of dependence on aging have A positive impact on economic growth, which is mainly due to people's saving behavior and human capital accumulation, indicating that population aging does not necessarily hinder the economic growth [4] of developing countries. Nie et al. (2019) explored the impact of population aging on consumption growth, and pointed out that understanding the positive and negative effects of population aging on consumption demand and consumption structure is of great [5] significance for adjusting consumption structure and coping with population aging. Nonlinear theory: there is a nonlinear relationship between population aging and economic growth, and it will have a negative impact only when the elderly population share reaches a certain high level. In the process of deepening the degree of aging, this negative impact is gradually strengthened [6] . The study also finds that there is a nonlinear relationship between population aging and the share of the elderly population and the working-age population. In the early stages of the demographic transition, as the share of the elderly population increases, the share of the working-age population also tends to increase. Only when the share of the elderly population is sufficiently high will an increase in the share of the elderly coincide with a decline in the share of the working-age population, which will have a negative impact [7] on economic growth. Wang Yingying and Peng Rong (2022), taking Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao as the research object, argued that different stages of population aging have different impacts on economic growth, which is an effect of "inhibition before and promotion after". This is because the path of population aging affecting economy at different stages is also different, namely, the path of labor supply in the early stage and the path of capital supply [8] in the late stage. However, the existing research also has some limitations, such as insufficient exploration of the impact mechanism of aging and insufficient systematic comparison of the impact differences among different economies. Future research needs to further deepen the understanding of the mechanism of aging affecting economic growth, especially in the context of globalization, cross-country comparative research is particularly important. In addition, studies should pay attention to the interaction between population aging and economic, social, cultural and other factors, so as to understand the impact of aging on economic growth more comprehensively. Therefore, Hypothesis H1 is proposed: population aging has a non-linear impact on economic growth and has phased characteristics. 2.2 Impact of the distribution of the elderly population on economic growth There are few studies on the impact of the elderly at different ages on economic growth, but there are many studies on the impact of people at other ages on economic growth. For example, in various states in the United States, the response of the economy to monetary policy shocks is stronger [9] in states with a higher proportion of the population aged 40-65 than in states with a higher proportion of young people. For example, the impact of different age groups on the economy usually shows an inverted U-shaped relationship, and the young and old age groups are associated with relatively worse economic outcomes. The younger and older age groups are associated with relatively worse economic outcomes, while the middle-aged age group is associated with relatively better economic outcomes. Therefore, we can speculate that the elderly at different ages have different effects on economic growth. The young elderly are significantly better at physical condition, learning ability, and acceptance of new knowledge and methods than the old. They may also have certain assets and wealth accumulation, while the old usually rely more on social security and welfare system. All of these will have different impacts on economic growth. Therefore, Hypothesis H2 is proposed: the elderly at different ages will have different impacts on economic growth. 2.3 Moderating effect of human capital Various studies have confirmed the moderating effect of human capital on population aging and economic growth. First of all, Ying Yang, R. Zheng and Lexiang Zhao argued that health investment has a significant role in promoting economic growth, while population aging and economic growth have an inverse U-shaped relationship, and the impact of health investment and population aging on economic growth can weaken [10] each other. Yong Liu conducted a study on the impact of China's two-child policy, and the results show that the policy alone has a limited positive impact on economic growth under the constraints of population aging, but it will be more beneficial if combined with measures to promote human capital growth. [11] Dju [12] kec, Damira et al. (2016) pointed out through model analysis that population aging will have a significant impact on Croatia's economic growth, but this impact is closely related to the way of intergenerational transmission of human capital, which indicates that optimizing the social transmission mechanism of human capital is particularly critical in the face of the challenge of population aging. Finally, Eva Ber [13] de and Muyassar Kurbanova argue that in Central Asian countries, human capital, appropriate education, and an effectively utilized labor force have a significant impact on the demographic dividend, while improving the quality of governance also plays a key role in economic growth. Overall, these studies highlight that human capital plays a moderating role in the relationship between population aging and economic growth. Specifically, the change of age structure is related to the decrease of economic growth rate. However, if the population in this age group has a high level of human capital, that is, good health, high education level and strong skill level, it can maintain enough human capital and still maintain a certain ability to work in old age, thus making a positive contribution to economic growth. Therefore, Hypothesis H3 is put forward: human capital plays a moderating role in population aging and economic growth. 3 Data sources and methods 3.1 Data sources This paper uses panel data for 180 countries from 1990 to 2022. Real (i.e., price inflation-adjusted) GDP per capita is expressed in local currency units (LCU). Because real GDP per capita better captures the value of economic output per person over time. The rest of the data are from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI); And age-specific population data from the United Nations' World Population Prospects. 3.2 Model construction The Cobb-Douglas function is a common production function that describes the relationship between inputs and outputs under specific conditions. The functional form is usually as follows: Where Y is gross domestic product (GDP), K is physical capital, L is labor, and A is the level of technology. In this paper, the equation is standardized, both sides are divided by population P, and then the natural logarithm of both sides is taken. On this basis, the coefficient of population aging and the square term are incorporated into the equation for regression analysis to determine whether population aging has a nonlinear impact on economic growth. Of agingit said in the case of the first I t coefficient of an ageing population, with over 60 years of age, the proportion of the population lnKit said the countries I first t years of material capital, with the logarithm of the total amount of fixed capital, lnLit said in the case of the first I t labor, with the logarithm of working age population, lnAit represents the technology level of country i in year t, and is represented by the logarithm of R&D expenditure. For further consideration to different age stages of the old man to the impact of economic growth, we will be over the age of 60, is divided into five ages 60-64 years old, respectively, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79 and 80 years of age or older, and in accordance with the proportion of its population into the equation, thus: In order to examine the moderating effect of human capital on the economic growth of population aging, human capital is included to consider whether any adverse impact of the elderly population will be mitigated by the existence of human capital. Where Hit represents the human capital of country i in year t, which is represented by the average years of schooling. The variables in this paper are as follows: (1) Explained variable: economic growth (lnpergdp). The level of economic growth is closely related to employment opportunities, income growth, wealth creation and social welfare. Therefore, by studying the relationship between population age structure and economic growth, we can evaluate the impact of different age groups on economic growth and formulate policies to deal with the challenges brought by population aging accordingly. In this paper, the logarithm of GDP per capita is used to measure. (2) Explanatory variable: aging coefficient (aging). The international standard here is the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in the total population. popshare (60-64) : ratio of people aged 60-64 to total population popshare (65-69) : Share of people aged 65-69 in total population popshare (70-74) : Share of people aged 70-74 in total population popshare (75-79) : Proportion of people aged 75-79 in total population popshare (80+) : Share of population over 80 years old Control variables. It mainly includes capital input (lnK), total fixed capital, labor input (lnL) and technology level (lnR&D). Capital input is measured by the logarithm of total fixed capital (100 million), labor input is measured by the logarithm of labor participation rate of each country, and technology level is measured by the logarithm of government research and development expenditure (100 million). (4) The moderator variable, human capital (lnH), is measured by the logarithm of the average years of education. 4. Empirical analysis and results 4.1 Heterogeneous impact of population aging on economic growth stages Table 1 Population aging levels in 204 countries and regions Year 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 Percentage aged 65 and over 6.107 7.049 7.402 7.765 8.521 9.612 9.984 According to the World Health Organization, a mildly aged society is defined as one in which 7% of the population is 65 or older; If the proportion reaches 14%, it is considered a moderately aged society; If it exceeds 20%, it is considered a severely aged society [8] . As can be seen from the above table, around 2000, all countries in the world have entered the aging society, and by 2022, the average value is close to the aging degree. However, there are differences in the aging degree of different countries, some countries have a relatively mild aging degree, while others are facing a more serious population aging problem. Table 2 Stages of population aging in some countries and regions Aging stage Country Not entering aging Afghanistan (2.39), brunei (6.17), Cambodia (5.81), India (6.90), Iraq (3.41), (3.84) in Jordan, Kenya (2.87), Laos (4.45), (4.61) of Mongolia, myanmar (6.82), (1.52) of Qatar, Saudi Arabia (2.81), South Africa (5.89), Syria (4.68), Tajikistan (3.47), United Arab Emirates (1.83) Mild ageing Argentina (11.92), Brazil (9.88), China (13.72), Colombia (9.00), Kazakhstan (8.04), North Korea (11.71), Macau (13.00), Malaysia (7.50), Mexico (8.32), Peru (8.41), Sri Lanka (11.54), Turkey (8.64),Vietnam (9.12) Moderately aging Britain (19.17), the United States (17.13), Australia (16.90), Austria (19.81), Belgium (19.73), Canada (19.03), Iceland (15.33), (15.14), Ireland, New Zealand (16.31), (18.44) in Norway, Poland (18.55), Russia (15.80), Singapore (15.12), Switzerland (19.31), Thailand (15.21), Ukraine (18.81) Severe aging Denmark (20.49), Finland (23.27), France (21.66), Germany (22.41), Greece (22.82), Hong Kong (20.47), Hungary (20.01), Italy (24.05), Japan (29.92), Netherlands (20.31), Portugal (22.90), Spain (20.27), Sweden (20.25) Specifically, some developed countries, such as Japan, Germany and France, have entered a severely aging society due to their perfect social security system, high medical care level and low fertility rate. And some developing countries such as China, India, Brazil, etc., while aging degree is relatively light, but with the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standard, the aging problem is increasingly outstanding. In addition, some countries although the aging degree is not high, but with the change of population structure and the decline in fertility, may also is faced with the problem of aging population in the future. Therefore, each country needs to adopt corresponding policies and measures according to its own situation to cope with the challenges brought by population aging. Table 3 Descriptive statistics of variables Names Minimum Maximum Average Standard deviation Log of GDP per capita (lnperGDP) 5.506 18.991 11.176 2.327 Coefficient of population aging (aging65+) 0.172 35.970 7.657 5.485 Capital input lnK 16.023 36.194 25.790 3.298 Labor input lnL 1.995 4.589 4.008 0.206 Level of technology lnR&D 8.747 36.959 26.941 3.414 In order to judge what kind of impact population aging has on economic growth, whether it is positive or negative, and whether it is linear or nonlinear, this paper uses aging (65+), aging^2, lnK, lnA, lnL as explanatory variables, and lnpergdp as explained variable to construct the panel model. If β2<0 and the point is within the range of descriptive statistics, it indicates that the impact of population aging on economic growth is inverted U-shaped, otherwise it is U-shaped. According to the Hausman test, Model 1 is a two-way fixed effect analysis method with time and individual controlled. Table 4 Regression results of Model 1 Model 1 Intercept 5.276 * * * (10.83) aging (65+) 0.047 * * * (7.62) aging^2 (65+) 0.00834 * * * (5.40) lnK 0.340 * * * (31.91) lnR&D 0.038 * * * (5.45) lnL 0.21 * * * (6.79) R 2 0.9989 R 2(within) 0.9988 Individual There are Time There are Inspection F(141, 1542) = 10126.79 As can be seen from the above table, for the population aging coefficient aging (65+), it shows the significance at the level of 0.01 (t=7.62,p=0.000<0.01), and the regression coefficient value is 0.078, indicating that the population aging coefficient will have a significant positive impact on lnpergdp. For the square term aging^2 of population aging coefficient, it shows a significant level of 0.01 (t=-5.4,p=0.000<0.01), and the regression coefficient value is -0.00834, indicating that the square term of aging coefficient has a significant negative impact on lnpergdp. In order to calculate the turning point, we construct the equation of lnperGDP about aging65+ according to the calculated parameters and the constant term, take the partial derivative of it, and set it equal to zero. The turning point is about 28.2, which is within the sample interval of (0.172, 35.970). It can be inferred that population aging has an inverted U-shaped effect on economic growth, that is, in the stage of mild population aging, it has a positive effect on economic growth, and with the deepening of population aging, its positive effect begins to turn into negative effect on economic growth after reaching the turning point. This phenomenon can be explained in the following way: the impact of population aging on economic growth is a slow and gradual process. When the aging level reaches a certain stage, the increase of the old-age dependency ratio will increase the burden of the working-age population, which is not conducive to economic growth Error! Reference source not found. . For the other control variables, at the significance level of 0.01, the t value of lnk is 31.91, and the p value is much less than 0.01, indicating that lnk has a very significant positive impact on lnpergdp, and its regression coefficient is 0.34, which means that every unit increase of lnk will increase lnpergdp by 0.34 units. Similarly, the t value of lnA is 5.45, and the p value is less than 0.01, indicating that lnA also has a significant positive impact on lnpergdp, and its regression coefficient is 0.038, indicating that each unit increase in lnA will increase lnpergdp by 0.038 units. For lnL, the t value is 6.79, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.21, indicating that lnL also has a significant positive impact on lnpergdp, and every unit increase in lnL will increase lnpergdp by 0.21 units. Technology, labor force and capital are the three basic factors to promote economic growth. Technological progress can improve production efficiency, reduce production cost, create new products and services, open up new markets and employment opportunities, and then increase per capita GDP. The increase of labor force participation rate can improve labor productivity, and then increase per capita GDP. Capital investment, including machinery, equipment and infrastructure, can increase production potential and promote economic growth. 4.2 Impact of the elderly at different ages on economic growth The above analysis is aimed at the elderly group. The following analysis will start from the elderly individuals and divide the elderly individuals at different stages into the pre-elderly (60-64 years old), the pre-elderly (65-69 years old), the mid-elderly (70-74 years old), the mid-elderly (75-80 years old) and the late-elderly (over 80 years old). Therefore, popshare (60-64), popshare (65-69), popshare (70-79) and popshare (80+) are used as explanatory variables, and the logarithm of per capita gdp is used as the explained variable to construct the panel model. According to the Hausman test, time and individual are still controlled. Two-way fixed effect analysis was used. Table 5 Descriptive statistics by age group, 204 countries and regions Name Sample size Minimum Maximum Average Standard deviation Median popshare (60-64) 6325 0.300 35.900 11.116 6.959 8.500 popshare (65-69) 6325 0.050 7.970 2.625 1.551 2.030 popshare (70-74) 6325 0.035 7.721 2.017 1.358 1.463 popshare (75-79) 6325 0.019 6.186 1.439 1.113 0.953 popshare (80+) 6325 0.066 16.682 1.576 1.615 0.843 Table 6 Regression results of Model 2 item Model 2 Intercept 6.618 * * * (14.925) lnpopshare (60-64) 1.01 * * * (7.86) lnpopshare (65-69) 0.633 * * * (7.29) lnpopshare (70-74) 0.424 * * * (6.17) lnpopshare (75-79) 0.474 * * * (8.98) lnpopshare (80+) 0.746 * * * (12.85) lnK 0.331 * * * (34.62) lnA 0.0328 * * * (5.23) lnL 0.133 * * * (4.89) R 2 0.425 R 2(within) 0.773 Inspection F (144,1539)= 12472.89,p=0.000 It can be seen from the above table that the elderly at different ages have different impacts on economic growth. At the significance level of 0.01, the t value of popshare (60-64) is -7.86, and the p value is less than 0.01, indicating that the elderly population aged 60-64 has a very significant negative impact on the logarithm of per capita GDP, and its regression coefficient is -1.01, which means that every unit increase of this group, The logarithm of GDP per capita will decrease by 1.01 units for every one unit increase. For popshare (65-69), the t value is 7.29, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.633, indicating that the elderly aged 65-69 have a significant positive impact on the logarithm of GDP per capita. The t value of popshare (70-74) is 6.17, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.424, indicating that the elderly people aged 70-74 have a significant positive impact on the logarithm of GDP per capita. For popshare (75-79), the t value is 8.98, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.474, indicating that the elderly people aged 75-79 years have a significant positive impact on lnpergdp. Finally, the t value of popshare (80+) is 12.85, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.746, indicating that the elderly group over 80 years old has a significant positive impact on the logarithm of per capita GDP. As the retirement age varies from country to country, the current average retirement age in the world is 66 years old. That is to say, most elderly people aged 60-64 have not yet withdrawn from the labor market, but their health level, learning ability and working ability have declined significantly, and they cannot adapt to the changing needs of the labor market compared with young people. In addition, these elderly people account for the largest proportion of the whole elderly group, so they have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. Therefore, Hypothesis H2 is proved. However, the above results also show that population aging does not necessarily have a negative impact on economic growth. Except for the elderly aged 60-64, the elderly in other age groups have a positive impact on economic growth, mainly because the increase of the elderly population will bring about the expansion of the consumer market, thus providing new impetus for economic growth. With the increase of the elderly population, the consumer demand for medical care, elderly care services, leisure and entertainment will also increase, which will promote the development of related industries and create more employment opportunities and economic benefits. In addition, the increase in the elderly population will also bring more savings and investment, which will provide financial support for economic development. Therefore, population aging can promote economic growth to a certain extent. 4.3 Moderating effect of human capital on economic growth According to Hypothesis 1, the impact of population aging on economic growth is not a simple linear relationship, and according to (3), the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable depends on the curvature term, which is a function including the moderating variable human capital. Therefore, if the coefficient β5 is significant, even if the slope term is not significant, Therefore, if the coefficient β5 is significant, even if the slope term is not significant, it also indicates that human capital can regulate the curve relationship between the aging coefficient and economic growth, because the curve relationship between the two will change with the change of the moderator variable human capital. Table 7 model 3 regression results Model 3 Intercept 4.66309 * * * (10.27) aging 0.0276 (0.85) lnH 0.0611015 (-0.56) aging*lnH 0.013679 (0.40) aging^2 -0.0040872 *** (2.28) aging^2*lnH 0.001278 *** (2.62) lnK 0.1875627 * * * (3.65) lnA 0.0412759 * * * (3.65) lnL 0.5928266 * * * (8.33) R 2 0.9997 R 2(within) 0.9996 Inspection F(113, 420) = 12101.06 This article examined the human capital of an aging population and economic growth of the curve of relationship between regulation, with per capita GDP as the dependent variable, respectively, to test aging level a coefficient, the quadratic term coefficient of aging level, aging and human capital of an interaction coefficient and the second interaction coefficient. It can be seen from the above table that the coefficient of the quadratic term of the level of aging is significantly less than 0, indicating that there is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between population aging and economic growth. The coefficient of the quadratic interaction term between the level of aging and human capital is significant, showing the significance at 0.01 level (t=2.09,p=0.0090, indicating that human capital does positively moderate the "inverted U-shaped" effect of the level of aging on human capital. With the improvement of human capital level, the promotion effect of early aging on economic growth will be further strengthened, while the negative relationship between late aging and economic growth will be weakened. Therefore, Hypothesis H3 is verified. Therefore, human capital has a positive moderating effect on population aging and economic growth, which is reflected in the following aspects: 1. Human capital can promote economic growth by increase in labor productivity. Changes in the labor market as the population ages are likely to have an impact on economic growth. However, if a society the human capital level is higher, so the productivity of Labour may be higher, because people have higher skills, knowledge and experience, better able to adapt and use new technology, improve production efficiency. 2. Human capital can mitigate the negative impact of population aging on the labor market. With the increase of aging population, the supply of Labour market may be reduced, leading to higher wages and employment pressure increases. However, if the level of human capital in a society is high, then the elderly can remain employed after retirement or acquire new skills through training and re-education to adapt to changes in the labor market. To sum up, human capital has a positive moderating effect on population aging and economic growth. It is worth mentioning that for the adjustment of the nonlinear relationship, regulating variable may change the position of the turning point occurred on one hand, on the other hand, the adjustment variables may change the instantaneous rate of change of the independent variable on the dependent variable, that is to say, when adjusting variables at different levels, can change the extent [14] . In order to further test the impact of moderating variable human capital on population aging and economic growth, it can be set at different values of higher (+1 SD) and lower (-1 SD) to test the difference in the impact range of independent variable X on dependent variable Y, and then obtain the specific moderating effect. 5 Conclusions and suggestions Comprehensive above research, we can see the influence of population aging on economic growth is multidimensional. 1. The impact of population aging on economic growth is not a single positive or negative effect, but a nonlinear effect. With the increase of the proportion of elderly population, economic growth shows an inverted U-shaped relationship. In the initial stage, the increase of the elderly population has a positive impact on economic growth, but with the further increase of the proportion of the elderly population, it will have a negative impact on economic growth. 2. The elderly at different ages have different impacts on economic growth. 60-64 - year - old old people usually have a negative impact on economic growth, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79 years old, 80 years old elderly population will have a positive impact on economic growth 3. Human capital plays a moderating role in population aging and economic growth. Improving the level of human capital will strengthen the promoting effect of aging in the early stage on economic growth, weaken the negative relationship between aging and economic growth in the late stage, and promote the sustainable development of economy. To this end, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: Promote the accumulation and improvement of human capital: strengthen education and training, especially vocational training and re-education for the elderly. The quality and adaptability of human capital can be improved by providing benefits and incentives to encourage the elderly to continue learning and improve their skill levels. Promote employment and entrepreneurship for the elderly: Encourage enterprises to provide more employment opportunities and flexible work arrangements for the elderly. Through tax cuts and subsidies, entrepreneurs will be encouraged to carry out entrepreneurial activities in the field of elderly services and old-age care. At the same time, we will improve the employment rights protection and welfare system for the elderly to ensure their employment opportunities and sense of security. We will increase social support and welfare for the elderly: we will strengthen support for medical care, elderly care services, community activities and welfare for the elderly. Provide free or subsidized health services and medical insurance, establish a sound old-age service system, and encourage community and volunteer organizations to provide more care and support for the elderly. Promote the elderly to participate in social activities and volunteer services: encourage the elderly to actively participate in community activities, volunteer services and traditional cultural inheritance, etc. Through training and publicity activities, improve the social participation consciousness and ability of old people, promote the elderly and other age groups of interaction and communication between people. Promote industrial structure upgrading and innovative development: Strengthen support and guidance for industrial restructuring, encourage the development of emerging industries and high-tech industries, provide preferential policies and financial support, and attract investment and innovation resources. At the same time, we will increase investment in scientific and technological research, development and innovation, and raise the level of science and technology and production efficiency. To strengthen international cooperation and exchange of experience: the international community is faced with the same population aging challenges, countries can strengthen the experience exchanges and cooperation, jointly cope with the challenges of an ageing population. By sharing successful experiences and best practices, the needs and problems of the elderly population can be better addressed. Specific policies and measures need to be formulated according to the actual situation and development stage of each country. In addition, the government and the social from all walks of life should be formed to make joint efforts to in order to fully cope with the challenge of the aging of the population and realize the sustainable development of economy. Declarations Fund Project: This research is the phased achievement of the National Social Science Foundation's general project "Research on Risk Identification, Prevention and Control Mechanism and Coping Strategy of Severe Aging Society" (No. : 23BGL279) Availability of materials and data The data that support the findings of this study were derived from the following resources availablein the public domain: the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI); the United Nations' World Population Prospects. Author Contributions Statement Luo Juan and Xu Ke contributed equally to this study. Luo Juan conceptualized the research framework, designed the panel models, and led the literature review and hypothesis development. She coordinated data collection from multiple sources (World Bank and UN databases) and oversaw the econometric analysis, including constructing the nonlinear models and interpreting the inverted U-shaped relationship between aging and economic growth. Xu Ke assisted in model specification, particularly the age-group stratified analysis, and contributed to the moderation effect testing involving human capital. Both authors participated in drafting the manuscript, refining theoretical arguments, and ensuring methodological rigor throughout the research process. Their collaborative efforts ensured a comprehensive exploration of population aging's heterogeneous impacts on economic growth and the moderating role of human capital. Competing interests: The authors declared no potential conflict of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and publication of this article.The authors declared that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships . References Make LIU, Liming Luke, CHEN Liangting LV, etc. The impact of population aging on economic growth: A case study on China [J] AIMS Mathematics, 2023, DOI: 10.3934 / math. 2023531. Zulkefly Abdul KARIM, Nurul Aqilah Mohd NURUDDIN, Bakri Abdul KARIM, et al. The impact of population aging and fertility rate on economic growth in Malaysia[EB](2023). DOI: 10.20885 / ejem vol15. Iss2. Art7. Zihao WEI. The impact of population aging on economic growth —— Based on a case analysis in Beijing[EB](2023). DOI: 10.54097 / hbem. V13i. 8640. A. A. BAWAZIR, M. ASLAM, Ahmad Farid OSMAN. The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Middle East Countries[EB](2021). DOI:10.4018/978-1-7998-7327-3.CH005. V. HEYETS, M. SKRYPNYCHENKO, S. SHUMSKA. Population Aging and Economic Dynamics in Ukraine: Models of Endogenous Growth Theory and Empirical Estimates of Current Challenges[J]. Proceedings of the 2019 7th International Conference on Modeling, Development and Strategic Management of Economic System (MDSMES 2019), 2019. DOI:10.2991/mdsmes-19.2019.53. WANG S Q. Rethinking population aging [J]. Population and Health,2020(09):38-40.] Lee, H.-H., & Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2019.100963 Wang Y Y, Peng R. Heterogeneous impact of population aging on economic growth stages and its mechanism: an analysis based on Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Journal of guangdong university of finance and economics, 2022, 5 (6) : 25 to 35. Leahy, John V., and Aditi Thapar. "Age structure and the impact of monetary policy." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 14.4 (2022): 136-173. Yang, Yingzhu, Rong Zheng, and Lexiang Zhao. "Population aging, health investment and economic growth: Based ona cross-country panel data analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18.4 (2021): 1801 Liu, Yong. "Aging and economic growth: is there a role for a two-child policy in China? ." Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja 33.1 (2020): 438-455. Djukec, Damira, and Anica Hunjet. "The role of human and enterpreneurship capital on economic growth in Croatia." Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings (2016): 375. Berde, Eva, and Muyassar Kurbanova. "Does the demographic dividend with human capital development yield an economic dividend? Evidence from Central Asia." Post-Communist Economies 35.2 (2023): 154-178. Lin Wei-peng, Feng Bao-yi. The curve effect and statistical test method in the field of management [J]. Nankai Business Review, 2012,25(01):155-166. Wang Shiqi. Rethinking population aging [J]. Population and Health,2020(09):38-40. Shao Li, Ji Zhenhua, Cui Xia, et al. The issue of population and economic growth in the northeast of spatial econometric analysis [J]. Journal of mathematical statistics and management, 2020, 33 (4) 6:571-583. The DOI: 10.13860 / j.carol carroll nki SLTJ. 20191110-002. Du Yang, Feng Yonggang. The impact of rapid aging population on economic growth [J]. Economic Research Journal,2021,56(02):71-88.] Fan Xianwei. Promoting the High Quality Development of silver economy (New Discussion). People's Daily,2021-12-24(05).] Xie Xueyan, Zhu Xiaoyang. [Xie X Y, Zhu X Y. China Soft Science, 2020(6) : 42-53. Bao Y X. Analysis of regional economic effect of population aging: based on new classical economic growth model [J]. Population and Economy,2012(01):1-7. Fu Jianhua, Cao Xiaochen. The impact of aging population on China's high-quality economic development [J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues,2021(6) : 44-55. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6160168","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":438981691,"identity":"a438582a-667b-46fb-9c80-05e5053ee272","order_by":0,"name":"juan luo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai University of Engineering Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"juan","middleName":"","lastName":"luo","suffix":""},{"id":438981692,"identity":"a9e8d2b7-0852-4eca-9a1f-8e6b4047109c","order_by":1,"name":"Xu Ke","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfvnDBww+VEjw2Lc3HyBOi+QMtoTCGWds5Ax4jiUQp8XgBo/CZ962NGMDCR8DIl12u4dx4wy2w4nbJXg+3njDYCen20BAB+Ocs4cNPvAcTtw5u3ez5RyGZGOzAwS0MDPkpRnOkDic2HDn7DZpHoYDidsIaWFjyDH/zWMA1HIj5xlxWngkcgyMeRKA3r+Rw0acFglg2BrOOGAjJ9lzzNhyjgERfrE/3nzA4OM/CR5+9uaHN95U2MkR1IJmJbFRg6SFVB2jYBSMglEwIgAA6tdIme7ABVUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai University of Engineering Sciences","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xu","middleName":"","lastName":"Ke","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-05 07:53:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6160168/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6160168/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80026364,"identity":"d22a7f50-50ad-49bb-b94a-7bb72c0b102a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 06:25:43","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":171149,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ecoefficient of an ageing population and per capita GDP\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6160168/v1/127bb8fba21e5559f8381a26.png"},{"id":81941951,"identity":"ee48f42f-9d8a-483a-a651-af56f8f3e7ed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-05 07:16:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":850687,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6160168/v1/93a27dda-774c-4af7-a68b-780295e1342c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Does aging population structure affect economic growth through human capital?","fulltext":[{"header":"1 Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eExploring the impact of population aging on economic growth is an increasingly prominent and important issue in the current social development. However, the age distribution of the elderly population, that is, the proportion of elderly people in different age groups, also has an important impact on economic growth. From the perspective of age distribution of the elderly population, this paper will deeply explore the relationship between population aging, human capital and economic growth. In the past few decades, technological advances and improvements in medical care have led to increasing lifespans. At the same time, demographic changes also bring new challenges and opportunities. The aging of the population not only means changes in the labor market, but also has a profound impact on various fields such as education, health care, and social security. From the perspective of human capital, the increase of the elderly population will have an impact on health human capital and education human capital. As the most important component of economic activities, human capital not only directly enters the production function as a factor of production, but also enters the production function as a factor of production. The change of human capital will also affect a series of variables that determine economic growth, such as technological progress and material capital accumulation. Human capital plays an indispensable role in the process of population age structure affecting economic growth. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the adjustment of human capital in the process of aging and fewer children affecting economic growth and to find the new driving force of economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, population aging is not a short-term problem, its development has phased characteristics. Therefore, this challenge needs to be understood and addressed from multiple perspectives. First of all, it is necessary to deeply study the impact of population aging, and study the direction and degree of influence of population aging at different stages on economic growth. Secondly, it is necessary to pay attention to the age distribution of the elderly population, and improve the human capital level of the elderly population by expanding education expenditure and increasing training. Finally, there is a need to balance the development needs of older people of different ages to ensure that they all receive the respect and welfare they deserve in an aging society. In general, there is a complex and close relationship between population aging, human capital and economic growth. Understanding and addressing these relationships will help us better address the challenges and opportunities of an aging population to achieve sustainable economic development.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2 Literature review and research hypotheses","content":"\u003ch4\u003e2.1 Impact of population aging on economic growth\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eExploring the impact of population aging on economic growth is an increasingly prominent issue in current social development. As many countries and regions are facing significant changes in population structure, especially the increasing proportion of elderly population, studying this issue is not only helpful to understand the trend of economic growth, but also has important guiding significance for formulating relevant policy measures. It can be seen from the studies of multiple regions and economies that the impact of population aging on economic growth is complex and multifaceted, and the main conclusions are as follows.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNegative impact: Yue Liu and Liming Luke Chen (2023) analyzed the data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, and found that population aging significantly hindered economic growth, and industrial structure upgrading, as an intermediary, affected the overall progress and rationalization\u003csup\u003e[1]\u003c/sup\u003e of industry. Karim et al. used ARDL model for Malaysia to find that population aging has a negative impact on economic growth in the long run, while the decline of fertility rate is beneficial to long-term economic growth. This finding provides important empirical reference\u003csup\u003e[2]\u003c/sup\u003e for the formulation of population policy. The study of Zihao Wei (2023) specifically analyzed the development status of aging in Beijing, and believed that aging inhibited residents\u0026apos; consumption, reduced the economic benefits of labor, and promoted the optimization\u003csup\u003e[3]\u003c/sup\u003e of industrial structure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePositive impact: Foreign scholar A. A. Bawazir et al. (2021) found through A study of ten Middle Eastern countries that both the proportion of elderly population and the proportion of dependence on aging have A positive impact on economic growth, which is mainly due to people\u0026apos;s saving behavior and human capital accumulation, indicating that population aging does not necessarily hinder the economic growth\u003csup\u003e[4]\u003c/sup\u003e of developing countries.\u0026nbsp;Nie et al. (2019) explored the impact of population aging on consumption growth, and pointed out that understanding the positive and negative effects of population aging on consumption demand and consumption structure is of great\u003csup\u003e[5]\u003c/sup\u003e significance for adjusting consumption structure and coping with population aging.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNonlinear theory: there is a nonlinear relationship between population aging and economic growth, and it will have a negative impact only when the elderly population share reaches a certain high level. In the process of deepening the degree of aging, this negative impact is gradually strengthened\u003csup\u003e[6]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;The study also finds that there is a nonlinear relationship between population aging and the share of the elderly population and the working-age population. In the early stages of the demographic transition, as the share of the elderly population increases, the share of the working-age population also tends to increase. Only when the share of the elderly population is sufficiently high will an increase in the share of the elderly coincide with a decline in the share of the working-age population, which will have a negative impact\u003csup\u003e[7]\u003c/sup\u003e on economic growth.\u0026nbsp;Wang Yingying and Peng Rong (2022), taking Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao as the research object, argued that different stages of population aging have different impacts on economic growth, which is an effect of \u0026quot;inhibition before and promotion after\u0026quot;. This is because the path of population aging affecting economy at different stages is also different, namely, the path of labor supply in the early stage and the path of capital supply\u003csup\u003e[8]\u003c/sup\u003e in the late stage.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, the existing research also has some limitations, such as insufficient exploration of the impact mechanism of aging and insufficient systematic comparison of the impact differences among different economies. Future research needs to further deepen the understanding of the mechanism of aging affecting economic growth, especially in the context of globalization, cross-country comparative research is particularly important. In addition, studies should pay attention to the interaction between population aging and economic, social, cultural and other factors, so as to understand the impact of aging on economic growth more comprehensively.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTherefore, Hypothesis H1 is proposed: population aging has a non-linear impact on economic growth and has phased characteristics.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003e2.2 Impact of the distribution of the elderly population on economic growth\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are few studies on the impact of the elderly at different ages on economic growth, but there are many studies on the impact of people at other ages on economic growth. For example, in various states in the United States, the response of the economy to monetary policy shocks is stronger\u003csup\u003e[9]\u003c/sup\u003e in states with a higher proportion of the population aged 40-65 than in states with a higher proportion of young people. For example, the impact of different age groups on the economy usually shows an inverted U-shaped relationship, and the young and old age groups are associated with relatively worse economic outcomes. The younger and older age groups are associated with relatively worse economic outcomes, while the middle-aged age group is associated with relatively better economic outcomes. Therefore, we can speculate that the elderly at different ages have different effects on economic growth. The young elderly are significantly better at physical condition, learning ability, and acceptance of new knowledge and methods than the old. They may also have certain assets and wealth accumulation, while the old usually rely more on social security and welfare system. All of these will have different impacts on economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTherefore, Hypothesis H2 is proposed: the elderly at different ages will have different impacts on economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003e2.3 Moderating effect of human capital\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eVarious studies have confirmed the moderating effect of human capital on population aging and economic growth. First of all, Ying Yang, R. Zheng and Lexiang Zhao argued that health investment has a significant role in promoting economic growth, while population aging and economic growth have an inverse U-shaped relationship, and the impact of health investment and population aging on economic growth can weaken\u003csup\u003e[10]\u003c/sup\u003e each other. Yong\u0026nbsp;Liu conducted a study on the impact of China\u0026apos;s two-child policy, and the results show that the policy alone has a limited positive impact on economic growth under the constraints of population aging, but it will be more beneficial if combined with measures to promote human capital growth.\u0026nbsp;\u003csup\u003e[11]\u003c/sup\u003eDju\u003csup\u003e[12]\u003c/sup\u003ekec, Damira et al. (2016) pointed out through model analysis that population aging will have a significant impact on Croatia\u0026apos;s economic growth, but this impact is closely related to the way of intergenerational transmission of human capital, which indicates that optimizing the social transmission mechanism of human capital is particularly critical in the face of the challenge of population aging. Finally, Eva\u0026nbsp;Ber\u003csup\u003e[13]\u003c/sup\u003ede and Muyassar Kurbanova argue that in Central Asian countries, human capital, appropriate education, and an effectively utilized labor force have a significant impact on the demographic dividend, while improving the quality of governance also plays a key role in economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOverall, these studies highlight that human capital plays a moderating role in the relationship between population aging and economic growth. Specifically, the change of age structure is related to the decrease of economic growth rate. However, if the population in this age group has a high level of human capital, that is, good health, high education level and strong skill level, it can maintain enough human capital and still maintain a certain ability to work in old age, thus making a positive contribution to economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTherefore, Hypothesis H3 is put forward: human capital plays a moderating role in population aging and economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3 Data sources and methods","content":"\u003ch4\u003e3.1 Data sources\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis paper uses panel data for 180 countries from 1990 to 2022. Real (i.e., price inflation-adjusted) GDP per capita is expressed in local currency units (LCU). Because real GDP per capita better captures the value of economic output per person over time. The rest of the data are from the World Bank\u0026apos;s World Development Indicators (WDI); And age-specific population data from the United Nations\u0026apos; World Population Prospects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003e3.2 Model construction\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Cobb-Douglas function is a common production function that describes the relationship between inputs and outputs under specific conditions. The functional form is usually as follows:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhere Y is gross domestic product (GDP), K is physical capital, L is labor, and A is the level of technology. In this paper, the equation is standardized, both sides are divided by population P, and then the natural logarithm of both sides is taken. On this basis, the coefficient of population aging and the square term are incorporated into the equation for regression analysis to determine whether population aging has a nonlinear impact on economic growth.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOf agingit said in the case of the first I t coefficient of an ageing population, with over 60 years of age, the proportion of the population lnKit said the countries I first t years of material capital, with the logarithm of the total amount of fixed capital, lnLit said in the case of the first I t labor, with the logarithm of working age population, lnAit represents the technology level of country i in year t, and is represented by the logarithm of R\u0026amp;D expenditure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor further consideration to different age stages of the old man to the impact of economic growth, we will be over the age of 60, is divided into five ages 60-64 years old, respectively, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79 and 80 years of age or older, and in accordance with the proportion of its population into the equation, thus:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn order to examine the moderating effect of human capital on the economic growth of population aging, human capital is included to consider whether any adverse impact of the elderly population will be mitigated by the existence of human capital.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhere Hit represents the human capital of country i in year t, which is represented by the average years of schooling. The variables in this paper are as follows:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(1) Explained variable: economic growth (lnpergdp). The level of economic growth is closely related to employment opportunities, income growth, wealth creation and social welfare. Therefore, by studying the relationship between population age structure and economic growth, we can evaluate the impact of different age groups on economic growth and formulate policies to deal with the challenges brought by population aging accordingly. In this paper, the logarithm of GDP per capita is used to measure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(2) Explanatory variable: aging coefficient (aging). The international standard here is the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in the total population.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003epopshare (60-64) : ratio of people aged 60-64 to total population\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003epopshare (65-69) : Share of people aged 65-69 in total population\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003epopshare (70-74) : Share of people aged 70-74 in total population\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003epopshare (75-79) : Proportion of people aged 75-79 in total population\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003epopshare (80+) : Share of population over 80 years old\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eControl variables. It mainly includes capital input (lnK), total fixed capital, labor input (lnL) and technology level (lnR\u0026amp;D). Capital input is measured by the logarithm of total fixed capital (100 million), labor input is measured by the logarithm of labor participation rate of each country, and technology level is measured by the logarithm of government research and development expenditure (100 million).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(4) The moderator variable, human capital (lnH), is measured by the logarithm of the average years of education.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. Empirical analysis and results","content":"\u003ch4\u003e4.1 Heterogeneous impact of population aging on economic growth stages\u0026nbsp;\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1 Population aging levels in 204 countries and regions\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv align=\"center\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"109%\"\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1990\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 12px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2005\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 12px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2010\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;2015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 13px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePercentage aged 65 and over\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.107\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.049\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 12px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.402\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 12px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.765\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8.521\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 13px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.612\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.984\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;According to the World Health Organization, a mildly aged society is defined as one in which 7% of the population is 65 or older; If the proportion reaches 14%, it is considered a moderately aged society; If it exceeds 20%, it is considered a severely aged society\u003csup\u003e[8]\u003c/sup\u003e. As can be seen from the above table, around 2000, all countries in the world have entered the aging society, and by 2022, the average value is close to the aging degree. However, there are differences in the aging degree of different countries, some countries have a relatively mild aging degree, while others are facing a more serious population aging problem.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 2 Stages of population aging in some countries and regions\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv align=\"center\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"109%\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAging stage\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 82px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCountry\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNot entering aging\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 82px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAfghanistan (2.39), brunei (6.17), Cambodia (5.81), India (6.90), Iraq (3.41), (3.84) in Jordan, Kenya (2.87), Laos (4.45), (4.61) of Mongolia, myanmar (6.82), (1.52) of Qatar, Saudi Arabia (2.81), South Africa (5.89), Syria (4.68), Tajikistan (3.47), United Arab Emirates (1.83)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMild ageing\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 82px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eArgentina (11.92), Brazil (9.88), China (13.72), Colombia (9.00), Kazakhstan (8.04), North Korea (11.71), Macau (13.00), Malaysia (7.50), Mexico (8.32), Peru (8.41), Sri Lanka (11.54), Turkey (8.64),Vietnam (9.12)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModerately aging\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 82px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBritain (19.17), the United States (17.13), Australia (16.90), Austria (19.81), Belgium (19.73), Canada (19.03), Iceland (15.33), (15.14), Ireland, New Zealand (16.31), (18.44) in Norway, Poland (18.55), Russia (15.80), Singapore (15.12), Switzerland (19.31), Thailand (15.21), Ukraine (18.81)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSevere aging\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 82px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDenmark (20.49), Finland (23.27), France (21.66), Germany (22.41), Greece (22.82), Hong Kong (20.47), Hungary (20.01), Italy (24.05), Japan (29.92), Netherlands (20.31), Portugal (22.90), Spain (20.27), Sweden (20.25)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSpecifically, some developed countries, such as Japan, Germany and France, have entered a severely aging society due to their perfect social security system, high medical care level and low fertility rate. And some developing countries such as China, India, Brazil, etc., while aging degree is relatively light, but with the development of economy and the improvement of people\u0026apos;s living standard, the aging problem is increasingly outstanding. In addition, some countries although the aging degree is not high, but with the change of population structure and the decline in fertility, may also is faced with the problem of aging population in the future. Therefore, each country needs to adopt corresponding policies and measures according to its own situation to cope with the challenges brought by population aging.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 3 Descriptive statistics of variables\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv align=\"center\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"109%\"\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 19px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNames\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMinimum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMaximum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAverage\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eStandard deviation\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 19px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLog of GDP per capita (lnperGDP)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.506\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e18.991\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e11.176\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.327\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 19px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCoefficient of population aging (aging65+)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.172\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e35.970\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.657\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.485\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 19px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCapital input lnK\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e16.023\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.194\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e25.790\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.298\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 19px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLabor input lnL\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.995\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.589\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.008\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.206\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 19px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLevel of technology lnR\u0026amp;D\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8.747\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.959\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e26.941\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.414\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn order to judge what kind of impact population aging has on economic growth, whether it is positive or negative, and whether it is linear or nonlinear, this paper uses aging (65+), aging^2, lnK, lnA, lnL as explanatory variables, and lnpergdp as explained variable to construct the panel model. If \u0026beta;2\u0026lt;0 and the point is within the range of descriptive statistics, it indicates that the impact of population aging on economic growth is inverted U-shaped, otherwise it is U-shaped. According to the Hausman test, Model 1 is a two-way fixed effect analysis method with time and individual controlled.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Table 4 Regression results of Model 1\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv align=\"center\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"109%\"\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModel 1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIntercept\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.276 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(10.83)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eaging (65+)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.047 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(7.62)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eaging^2 (65+)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.00834 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(5.40)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnK\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.340 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(31.91)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnR\u0026amp;D\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.038 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(5.45)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnL\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.21 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(6.79)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e 2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.9989\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e 2(within)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.9988\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIndividual\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThere are\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTime\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThere are\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eInspection\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eF(141, 1542) = 10126.79\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs can be seen from the above table, for the population aging coefficient aging (65+), it shows the significance at the level of 0.01 (t=7.62,p=0.000\u0026lt;0.01), and the regression coefficient value is 0.078, indicating that the population aging coefficient will have a significant positive impact on lnpergdp. For the square term aging^2 of population aging coefficient, it shows a significant level of 0.01 (t=-5.4,p=0.000\u0026lt;0.01), and the regression coefficient value is -0.00834, indicating that the square term of aging coefficient has a significant negative impact on lnpergdp. In order to calculate the turning point, we construct the equation of lnperGDP about aging65+ according to the calculated parameters and the constant term, take the partial derivative of it, and set it equal to zero. The turning point is about 28.2, which is within the sample interval of (0.172, 35.970).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt can be inferred that population aging has an inverted U-shaped effect on economic growth, that is, in the stage of mild population aging, it has a positive effect on economic growth, and with the deepening of population aging, its positive effect begins to turn into negative effect on economic growth after reaching the turning point.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis phenomenon can be explained in the following way: the impact of population aging on economic growth is a slow and gradual process. When the aging level reaches a certain stage, the increase of the old-age dependency ratio will increase the burden of the working-age population, which is not conducive to economic growth\u003csup\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eError! Reference source not found.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor the other control variables, at the significance level of 0.01, the t value of lnk is 31.91, and the p value is much less than 0.01, indicating that lnk has a very significant positive impact on lnpergdp, and its regression coefficient is 0.34, which means that every unit increase of lnk will increase lnpergdp by 0.34 units. Similarly, the t value of lnA is 5.45, and the p value is less than 0.01, indicating that lnA also has a significant positive impact on lnpergdp, and its regression coefficient is 0.038, indicating that each unit increase in lnA will increase lnpergdp by 0.038 units. For lnL, the t value is 6.79, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.21, indicating that lnL also has a significant positive impact on lnpergdp, and every unit increase in lnL will increase lnpergdp by 0.21 units.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTechnology, labor force and capital are the three basic factors to promote economic growth. Technological progress can improve production efficiency, reduce production cost, create new products and services, open up new markets and employment opportunities, and then increase per capita GDP. The increase of labor force participation rate can improve labor productivity, and then increase per capita GDP. Capital investment, including machinery, equipment and infrastructure, can increase production potential and promote economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003e4.2 Impact of the elderly at different ages on economic growth\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe above analysis is aimed at the elderly group. The following analysis will start from the elderly individuals and divide the elderly individuals at different stages into the pre-elderly (60-64 years old), the pre-elderly (65-69 years old), the mid-elderly (70-74 years old), the mid-elderly (75-80 years old) and the late-elderly (over 80 years old). Therefore, popshare (60-64), popshare (65-69), popshare (70-79) and popshare (80+) are used as explanatory variables, and the logarithm of per capita gdp is used as the explained variable to construct the panel model. According to the Hausman test, time and individual are still controlled. Two-way fixed effect analysis was used.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 5 Descriptive statistics by age group, 204 countries and regions\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv align=\"center\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"100%\"\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eName\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSample size\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMinimum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMaximum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAverage\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 15px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eStandard deviation\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMedian\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epopshare (60-64)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.300\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e35.900\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e11.116\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 15px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.959\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8.500\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epopshare (65-69)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.050\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.970\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.625\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 15px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.551\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.030\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epopshare (70-74)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.035\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.721\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.017\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 15px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.358\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.463\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epopshare (75-79)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.019\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.186\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.439\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 15px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.113\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.953\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 21px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epopshare (80+)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.066\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 17px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e16.682\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 14px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.576\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 15px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.615\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 11px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.843\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Table 6 Regression results of Model 2\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv align=\"center\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"109%\"\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eitem\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModel 2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIntercept\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.618 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(14.925)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnpopshare (60-64)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.01 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(7.86)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnpopshare (65-69)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.633 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(7.29)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnpopshare (70-74)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.424 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(6.17)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnpopshare (75-79)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.474 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(8.98)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnpopshare (80+)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.746 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(12.85)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnK\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.331 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(34.62)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnA\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0328 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(5.23)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnL\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.133 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(4.89)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eR\u0026nbsp;2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.425\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eR\u0026nbsp;2(within)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.773\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 40px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eInspection\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eF (144,1539)= 12472.89,p=0.000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;It can be seen from the above table that the elderly at different ages have different impacts on economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the significance level of 0.01, the t value of popshare (60-64) is -7.86, and the p value is less than 0.01, indicating that the elderly population aged 60-64 has a very significant negative impact on the logarithm of per capita GDP, and its regression coefficient is -1.01, which means that every unit increase of this group, The logarithm of GDP per capita will decrease by 1.01 units for every one unit increase. For popshare (65-69), the t value is 7.29, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.633, indicating that the elderly aged 65-69 have a significant positive impact on the logarithm of GDP per capita. The t value of popshare (70-74) is 6.17, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.424, indicating that the elderly people aged 70-74 have a significant positive impact on the logarithm of GDP per capita. For popshare (75-79), the t value is 8.98, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.474, indicating that the elderly people aged 75-79 years have a significant positive impact on lnpergdp. Finally, the t value of popshare (80+) is 12.85, the p value is less than 0.01, and the regression coefficient is 0.746, indicating that the elderly group over 80 years old has a significant positive impact on the logarithm of per capita GDP.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs the retirement age varies from country to country, the current average retirement age in the world is 66 years old. That is to say, most elderly people aged 60-64 have not yet withdrawn from the labor market, but their health level, learning ability and working ability have declined significantly, and they cannot adapt to the changing needs of the labor market compared with young people. In addition, these elderly people account for the largest proportion of the whole elderly group, so they have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. Therefore, Hypothesis H2 is proved.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, the above results also show that population aging does not necessarily have a negative impact on economic growth. Except for the elderly aged 60-64, the elderly in other age groups have a positive impact on economic growth, mainly because the increase of the elderly population will bring about the expansion of the consumer market, thus providing new impetus for economic growth. With the increase of the elderly population, the consumer demand for medical care, elderly care services, leisure and entertainment will also increase, which will promote the development of related industries and create more employment opportunities and economic benefits. In addition, the increase in the elderly population will also bring more savings and investment, which will provide financial support for economic development. Therefore, population aging can promote economic growth to a certain extent.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.3 Moderating effect of human capital on economic growth\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to Hypothesis 1, the impact of population aging on economic growth is not a simple linear relationship, and according to (3), the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable depends on the curvature term, which is a function including the moderating variable human capital. Therefore, if the coefficient \u0026beta;5 is significant, even if the slope term is not significant, Therefore, if the coefficient \u0026beta;5 is significant, even if the slope term is not significant, it also indicates that human capital can regulate the curve relationship between the aging coefficient and economic growth, because the curve relationship between the two will change with the change of the moderator variable human capital.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 7 model 3 regression results\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"109%\"\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModel 3\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIntercept\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;4.66309 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(10.27)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eaging\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0276\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(0.85)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnH\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0611015\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(-0.56)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eaging*lnH\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.013679\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(0.40)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eaging^2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.0040872 ***\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(2.28)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eaging^2*lnH\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.001278 ***\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(2.62)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnK\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.1875627 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(3.65)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnA\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.0412759 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(3.65)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003elnL\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.5928266 * * *\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(8.33)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e 2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.9997\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e 2(within)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.9996\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 31px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eInspection\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eF(113, 420) = 12101.06\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article examined the human capital of an aging population and economic growth of the curve of relationship between regulation, with per capita GDP as the dependent variable, respectively, to test aging level a coefficient, the quadratic term coefficient of aging level, aging and human capital of an interaction coefficient and the second interaction coefficient. It can be seen from the above table that the coefficient of the quadratic term of the level of aging is significantly less than 0, indicating that there is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between population aging and economic growth. The coefficient of the quadratic interaction term between the level of aging and human capital is significant, showing the significance at 0.01 level (t=2.09,p=0.009\u0026lt;0.01), and the regression coefficient value is 0.013\u0026gt;0, indicating that human capital does positively moderate the \u0026quot;inverted U-shaped\u0026quot; effect of the level of aging on human capital. With the improvement of human capital level, the promotion effect of early aging on economic growth will be further strengthened, while the negative relationship between late aging and economic growth will be weakened. Therefore, Hypothesis H3 is verified.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTherefore, human capital has a positive moderating effect on population aging and economic growth, which is reflected in the following aspects: 1. Human capital can promote economic growth by increase in labor productivity. Changes in the labor market as the population ages are likely to have an impact on economic growth. However, if a society the human capital level is higher, so the productivity of Labour may be higher, because people have higher skills, knowledge and experience, better able to adapt and use new technology, improve production efficiency. 2. Human capital can mitigate the negative impact of population aging on the labor market. With the increase of aging population, the supply of Labour market may be reduced, leading to higher wages and employment pressure increases. However, if the level of human capital in a society is high, then the elderly can remain employed after retirement or acquire new skills through training and re-education to adapt to changes in the labor market. To sum up, human capital has a positive moderating effect on population aging and economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is worth mentioning that for the adjustment of the nonlinear relationship, regulating variable may change the position of the turning point occurred on one hand, on the other hand, the adjustment variables may change the instantaneous rate of change of the independent variable on the dependent variable, that is to say, when adjusting variables at different levels, can change the extent\u003csup\u003e[14]\u003c/sup\u003e. In order to further test the impact of moderating variable human capital on population aging and economic growth, it can be set at different values of higher (+1 SD) and lower (-1 SD) to test the difference in the impact range of independent variable X on dependent variable Y, and then obtain the specific moderating effect.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"5 Conclusions and suggestions","content":"\u003cp\u003eComprehensive above research, we can see the influence of population aging on economic growth is multidimensional.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1. The impact of population aging on economic growth is not a single positive or negative effect, but a nonlinear effect. With the increase of the proportion of elderly population, economic growth shows an inverted U-shaped relationship. In the initial stage, the increase of the elderly population has a positive impact on economic growth, but with the further increase of the proportion of the elderly population, it will have a negative impact on economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e2. The elderly at different ages have different impacts on economic growth. 60-64 - year - old old people usually have a negative impact on economic growth, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79 years old, 80 years old elderly population will have a positive impact on economic growth\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e3. Human capital plays a moderating role in population aging and economic growth. Improving the level of human capital will strengthen the promoting effect of aging in the early stage on economic growth, weaken the negative relationship between aging and economic growth in the late stage, and promote the sustainable development of economy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo this end, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePromote the accumulation and improvement of human capital: strengthen education and training, especially vocational training and re-education for the elderly. The quality and adaptability of human capital can be improved by providing benefits and incentives to encourage the elderly to continue learning and improve their skill levels.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Promote employment and entrepreneurship for the elderly: Encourage enterprises to provide more employment opportunities and flexible work arrangements for the elderly. Through tax cuts and subsidies, entrepreneurs will be encouraged to carry out entrepreneurial activities in the field of elderly services and old-age care. At the same time, we will improve the employment rights protection and welfare system for the elderly to ensure their employment opportunities and sense of security.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;We will increase social support and welfare for the elderly: we will strengthen support for medical care, elderly care services, community activities and welfare for the elderly. Provide free or subsidized health services and medical insurance, establish a sound old-age service system, and encourage community and volunteer organizations to provide more care and support for the elderly.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePromote the elderly to participate in social activities and volunteer services: encourage the elderly to actively participate in community activities, volunteer services and traditional cultural inheritance, etc. Through training and publicity activities, improve the social participation consciousness and ability of old people, promote the elderly and other age groups of interaction and communication between people.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePromote industrial structure upgrading and innovative development: Strengthen support and guidance for industrial restructuring, encourage the development of emerging industries and high-tech industries, provide preferential policies and financial support, and attract investment and innovation resources. At the same time, we will increase investment in scientific and technological research, development and innovation, and raise the level of science and technology and production efficiency.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo strengthen international cooperation and exchange of experience: the international community is faced with the same population aging challenges, countries can strengthen the experience exchanges and cooperation, jointly cope with the challenges of an ageing population. By sharing successful experiences and best practices, the needs and problems of the elderly population can be better addressed. Specific policies and measures need to be formulated according to the actual situation and development stage of each country. In addition, the government and the social from all walks of life should be formed to make joint efforts to in order to fully cope with the challenge of the aging of the population and realize the sustainable development of economy.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFund Project:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eThis research is the phased achievement of the National Social Science Foundation's general project \"Research on Risk Identification, Prevention and Control Mechanism and Coping Strategy of Severe Aging Society\" (No. : 23BGL279)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAvailability of materials and data\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe data that support the findings of this study were derived from the following resources availablein the public domain:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ethe World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI);\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ethe United Nations' World Population Prospects.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor Contributions Statement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLuo Juan and Xu Ke contributed equally to this study. Luo Juan conceptualized the research framework, designed the panel models, and led the literature review and hypothesis development. She coordinated data collection from multiple sources (World Bank and UN databases) and oversaw the econometric analysis, including constructing the nonlinear models and interpreting the inverted U-shaped relationship between aging and economic growth. Xu Ke assisted in model specification, particularly the age-group stratified analysis, and contributed to the moderation effect testing involving human capital. Both authors participated in drafting the manuscript, refining theoretical arguments, and ensuring methodological rigor throughout the research process. Their collaborative efforts ensured a comprehensive exploration of population aging's heterogeneous impacts on economic growth and the moderating role of human capital.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting interests:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declared no potential conflict of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and publication of this article.The authors declared that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships .\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":" References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMake LIU, Liming Luke, CHEN Liangting LV, etc. The impact of population aging on economic growth: A case study on China [J] AIMS Mathematics, 2023, DOI: 10.3934 / math. 2023531.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eZulkefly Abdul KARIM, Nurul Aqilah Mohd NURUDDIN, Bakri Abdul KARIM, et al. The impact of population aging and fertility rate on economic growth in Malaysia[EB](2023). 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Inquiry into Economic Issues,2021(6) : 44-55.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"population aging, age distribution, human capital, economic growth","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6160168/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6160168/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"This paper takes the relationship between population aging, human capital and economic growth as the research object, and makes an in-depth discussion from the perspective of age distribution of the elderly population. With the acceleration of global population aging, the proportion of the elderly population in the total population is increasing year by year, which has brought profound impact on economic and social development. However, the age distribution of the elderly population also has an important impact on economic growth. Through the construction of three panel models, this paper draws the following\nconclusions: first, population aging has a complex nonlinear impact on economic growth. With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, the economic growth shows an inverted U-shaped relationship, showing a situation of \"increasing first and then decreasing\". Secondly, the impact of the elderly at different ages on economic growth is also different. Finally, human capital plays a moderating role in population aging and economic growth. Improving the level of human capital of the elderly population can alleviate the negative impact of population aging on economic growth and promote sustainable economic development.","manuscriptTitle":"Does aging population structure affect economic growth through human capital?","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-07 06:25:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6160168/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1df16cad-8daf-4e21-88e8-0fd78b084ac6","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 7th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":46737726,"name":"Health sciences/Health care/Geriatrics"},{"id":46737727,"name":"Health sciences/Health care/Health care economics"},{"id":46737728,"name":"Health sciences/Health care/Public health"},{"id":46737729,"name":"Health sciences/Health care/Quality of life"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-05-05T07:08:45+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-07 06:25:39","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6160168","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6160168","identity":"rs-6160168","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}