Responding to Climate Change: Assessing the Current Situation and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Sinks in China

Responding to Climate Change: Assessing the Current Situation and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Sinks in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Responding to Climate Change: Assessing the Current Situation and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Sinks in China Yucen Wu, Ming Xu, Yuntao Tan, Lidong Shi, Jiahui Zhao This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7541444/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Driven by the intensification of global climate change and the goal of "dual carbon", forest carbon sink, as the core path of natural solutions, has become a key lever to balance carbon emissions from human activities and ecological restoration. Based on 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018, this paper selected forest stock expansion to measure provincial forest carbon sink validity, explored the evolution trend of forest carbon sink validity in time, space, and region and its driving factors, and further constructed a spatial Durbin model. To quantify the direct and indirect effects of natural and policy factors on forest carbon sink validity in local and neighboring provinces. It was found that the forest carbon sink validity showed an evolutionary trend of "higher in the west, faster in the east, and catch-up in the middle". The benchmark regression results showed that the increase in R&D investment and industrial structure optimization had a significant positive driving effect on the rise of carbon sink. At the same time, excessive government intervention significantly inhibited its development. The direct effects of urbanization and economic development level did not pass the significance test. The spatial effect analysis shows that the positive spillover effect of R&D intensity and industrial structure optimization can significantly promote the carbon sink growth of neighboring provinces, while the spatial spillover effect of government intervention is significantly negative, and the indirect effect of economic development and urbanization is still not significant. In this regard, it is necessary to strengthen regional science and technology development, improve forestry supervision policies, and then help optimize the forestry service system, to provide theoretical and practical guidance for promoting the high-quality development of the forestry industry. Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Forest carbon sink validity Spatiotemporal heterogeneity Driving factors Spatial spillover effect Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 10 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 21 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 23 Sep, 2025 Editor invited by journal 23 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 05 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7541444","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":524492666,"identity":"3e5fb2bd-2c53-4f56-bc7e-e2ea337040aa","order_by":0,"name":"Yucen Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing People's Hospital","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yucen","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":524492667,"identity":"80e978c1-5ccc-423a-ae97-8239ffa5fc91","order_by":1,"name":"Ming Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Southwest University of Political Science and 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Based on 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018, this paper selected forest stock expansion to measure provincial forest carbon sink validity, explored the evolution trend of forest carbon sink validity in time, space, and region and its driving factors, and further constructed a spatial Durbin model. To quantify the direct and indirect effects of natural and policy factors on forest carbon sink validity in local and neighboring provinces. It was found that the forest carbon sink validity showed an evolutionary trend of \"higher in the west, faster in the east, and catch-up in the middle\". The benchmark regression results showed that the increase in R\u0026D investment and industrial structure optimization had a significant positive driving effect on the rise of carbon sink. At the same time, excessive government intervention significantly inhibited its development. The direct effects of urbanization and economic development level did not pass the significance test. 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