Reproduction of Rainfall-Tidal Scenarios and Flood Risk Analysis Based on Representative Historical Rainfall Profile

Reproduction of Rainfall-Tidal Scenarios and Flood Risk Analysis Based on Representative Historical Rainfall Profile | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Reproduction of Rainfall-Tidal Scenarios and Flood Risk Analysis Based on Representative Historical Rainfall Profile Xin Dong, Weihong Liao, Hao Wang, Yongshai Liang, Shangtao Chi, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7426805/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 3 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coastal cities affected by tidal dynamics frequently experience heavy rainfall and pluvial flooding. Accurate assessment of urban flood risk and the enhancement of hydrological early warning capabilities are therefore critically important. This study proposes the identification of seven localized representative rainfall patterns based on the distribution of historical rainfall profiles, which, combined with regional empirical formulas for extreme precipitation, are used to generate urban design rainfall scenarios for flood risk analysis. Furthermore, a representative stochastic rainfall event database is constructed and superimposed with tidal processes to reproduce rainfall and tidal scenarios based on historical distribution characteristics. These scenarios are then used to drive an urban rainfall-runoff model to simulate flood responses and assess risks, while also verifying the feasibility of replacing future rainfall forecast inputs with the stochastic rainfall event database. Simulation results show that some river water levels are affected only by rainfall, while others are influenced by both rainfall and tidal interactions. Significant differences in urban river channel responses are observed under different rainfall patterns. In particular, short-duration intense rainfall events (within 180 minutes) require heightened attention. As rainfall duration increases, peak water depths exhibit a “high–low–high” variation trend. Analysis of 1,000 stochastic rainfall events found that 225 threshold exceedance incidents were mainly concentrated in rainfall patterns 1, 4, and 6, which accounted for more than 80% of exceedances, with pattern 1 having the highest exceedance rate and thus requiring prioritized focus. The results of this study provide more concrete technical support for flood risk assessment and for improving the efficiency and reliability of flood forecasting in coastal cities. Representative Rainfall Patterns Stochastic Rainfall Urban Design Storm Tidal Interaction Flood Risk Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 28 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 15 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 13 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7426805","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":521806495,"identity":"3a8b02d1-a34b-48b3-b725-6017e013dd90","order_by":0,"name":"Xin 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Profile","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Representative Rainfall Patterns, Stochastic Rainfall, Urban Design Storm, Tidal Interaction, Flood Risk","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7426805/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7426805/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCoastal cities affected by tidal dynamics frequently experience heavy rainfall and pluvial flooding. Accurate assessment of urban flood risk and the enhancement of hydrological early warning capabilities are therefore critically important. This study proposes the identification of seven localized representative rainfall patterns based on the distribution of historical rainfall profiles, which, combined with regional empirical formulas for extreme precipitation, are used to generate urban design rainfall scenarios for flood risk analysis. Furthermore, a representative stochastic rainfall event database is constructed and superimposed with tidal processes to reproduce rainfall and tidal scenarios based on historical distribution characteristics. These scenarios are then used to drive an urban rainfall-runoff model to simulate flood responses and assess risks, while also verifying the feasibility of replacing future rainfall forecast inputs with the stochastic rainfall event database. Simulation results show that some river water levels are affected only by rainfall, while others are influenced by both rainfall and tidal interactions. Significant differences in urban river channel responses are observed under different rainfall patterns. In particular, short-duration intense rainfall events (within 180 minutes) require heightened attention. As rainfall duration increases, peak water depths exhibit a \u0026ldquo;high\u0026ndash;low\u0026ndash;high\u0026rdquo; variation trend. Analysis of 1,000 stochastic rainfall events found that 225 threshold exceedance incidents were mainly concentrated in rainfall patterns 1, 4, and 6, which accounted for more than 80% of exceedances, with pattern 1 having the highest exceedance rate and thus requiring prioritized focus. The results of this study provide more concrete technical support for flood risk assessment and for improving the efficiency and reliability of flood forecasting in coastal cities.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Reproduction of Rainfall-Tidal Scenarios and Flood Risk Analysis Based on Representative Historical Rainfall Profile","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-09 23:46:06","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7426805/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-28T16:38:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-15T11:31:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2025-09-13T09:52:40+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"abdf7432-df3c-4f77-997b-8f763852dfa0","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 9th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-09T23:46:06+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-09 23:46:06","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7426805","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7426805","identity":"rs-7426805","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}