Agent-Based Modeling of Infectious Pathogens and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Inform Pandemic Preparedness

Background: Throughout history, pandemics have occurred semi-regularly. Epidemics and outbreaks occur even more frequently, and the primary response strategy to all is an implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The COVID-19 pandemic was no different. Despite the regular implementation of these interventions, there is relatively little empirical data on the effect of these on transmission dynamics, especially for pathogens other than SARS-CoV-2.Methods: Using the SIDD-NC ABM we investigate the effect of NPI adherence on the transmission dynamics of outbreaks four simulated pathogens. We used the observed rates of NPI adherence from COVID-19 to inform NPI adherence in the model population. The simulated pathogens are based on known respiratory pathogens observed to have caused outbreaks. Morbidity and mortality outcomes are compared against those for COVID-19 to contextualize how future outbreaks or pandemics may differ.Findings: We find the observed rates of adherence to NPIs during COVID-19 would have limited efficacy against outbreaks of other pathogens. Further, we identify a possible relationship between the contagiousness and virulence of a pathogen and the rate of NPI implementation and adherence in the affected population required to contain or completely stop an outbreak.Interpretation: The results of this research demonstrate what may be expected from a possible future outbreak or pandemic if the rates of adherence to NPIs during COVID-19 represent the maximum possible rate of adherence to NPIs during a pandemic-potential outbreak.Funding: Funding for this project was provided by The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), award number 1K01AI151197-01 (PI: P.L. Delamater).Declaration of Interest: None.