The warm Arctic-cold North American pattern in CanESM5 large ensemble simulations: Eurasian influence and uncertainty due to internal variability

Abstract This study examines the warm Arctic-cold North American pattern (WACNA) and its connection with the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern (WACE) using ERA5 reanalysis and a 50-member ensemble of historical climate simulations produced by CanESM5, the Canadian model participated in CMIP6. The results indicate that a negative WACE-like pattern usually precedes a positive WACNA pattern by one month, and that negative Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) and Pacific-North American (PNA) like circulation patterns appear upstream and precede a positive WACNA. The negative ABNA-like pattern can be attributed to anomalous heating in southern Siberia, which is associated with the negative WACE pattern and its featured Eurasian warming. The negative PNA-like pattern is influenced by negative SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, resembling tropical ENSO variability. Anomalous temperature advection in the lower troposphere follows the circulation anomaly, which supports the formation of WACNA. Conversely, processes with circulation anomalies of opposite sign result in a negative WACNA pattern. The tropical ENSO variability does not significantly impact the WACNA pattern and its linkage with WACE. CanESM5 simulates the WACNA pattern and WACE-WACNA connection well, with differences mainly in the anomalous magnitude between model simulations and ERA5. The uncertainty in the simulated WACNA pattern due to internal climate variability is dominated by two modes of inter-member variability: a southeast-northwest phase shift and a local variation in amplitude.