Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer

Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer Li Jiaping, Zhu Yunxia, Zhu Yu, Wei Yipan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7610615/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Objective This study aimed to construct a nomogram and web calculator for predicting the risk of dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer after surgery. Design A prospective study Methods patients who met the exclusion criteria in a class III a hospital in Zhejiang Province from October 2023 to June 2024 were selected as the modeling group, and patients in the same hospital from July 2024 to October 2024 were selected as the validation group. SPSS software was used for single factor and multi factor analysis to build the prediction model, and R software was used to draw the nomogram and web calculator. Internal and external validation of the constructed prediction model. Results the incidence of dysphagia in the modeling group and the validation group were 56.4% and 53.8%, respectively. Age (OR = 2.332), smoking history (OR = 2.423), tumor T stage (OR = 1.818), primary tumor location, neck lymph node dissection (OR= 2.342), flap transplantation (OR = 2.954), nutritional risk (OR = 1.772) and Beck oral score (OR = 2.482) were independent predictors of dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer after surgery. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling group and the validation group were 0.893 and 0.890, respectively. Conclusion the incidence of postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer is high. The risk prediction model for early postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer constructed in this study has good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability. It can be used as an evaluation and prediction tool to help clinical medical staff early identify high-risk groups of postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer. head and neck cancer dysphagia risk assessment nomogram risk prediction model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7610615","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":528272729,"identity":"29edc733-8a7c-48e3-bdf0-b460765ece11","order_by":0,"name":"Li Jiaping","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shaoxing Hospital of traditional Chinese Medicine","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Li","middleName":"","lastName":"Jiaping","suffix":""},{"id":528272730,"identity":"42cfe1de-b60b-445a-a09d-17f4cafa502e","order_by":1,"name":"Zhu 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cancer","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"head and neck cancer, dysphagia, risk assessment, nomogram, risk prediction model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7610615/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7610615/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eObjective \u003c/strong\u003eThis study aimed to construct a nomogram and web calculator for predicting the risk of dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer after surgery.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDesign\u003c/strong\u003e A prospective study\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003e patients who met the exclusion criteria in a class III a hospital in Zhejiang Province from October 2023 to June 2024 were selected as the modeling group, and patients in the same hospital from July 2024 to October 2024 were selected as the validation group. SPSS software was used for single factor and multi factor analysis to build the prediction model, and R software was used to draw the nomogram and web calculator. Internal and external validation of the constructed prediction model.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e the incidence of dysphagia in the modeling group and the validation group were 56.4% and 53.8%, respectively. Age (OR = 2.332), smoking history (OR = 2.423), tumor T stage (OR = 1.818), primary tumor location, neck lymph node dissection (OR= 2.342), flap transplantation (OR = 2.954), nutritional risk (OR = 1.772) and Beck oral score (OR = 2.482) were independent predictors of dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer after surgery. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling group and the validation group were 0.893 and 0.890, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion\u003c/strong\u003e the incidence of postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer is high. The risk prediction model for early postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer constructed in this study has good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability. It can be used as an evaluation and prediction tool to help clinical medical staff early identify high-risk groups of postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for postoperative dysphagia in patients with head and neck cancer","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-15 19:44:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7610615/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9d549cd2-f077-40ed-98b5-a8dcfac37483","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 15th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-07T11:38:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-15 19:44:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7610615","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7610615","identity":"rs-7610615","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}