Scenario Space Exploration for Robust Energy Planning

Scenario Space Exploration for Robust Energy Planning | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Scenario Space Exploration for Robust Energy Planning Amir Fattahi, Rebeka Beres, Mobi van der Linden, Carlos Felipe Blanco, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8653364/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Energy and climate assessments often contrast a few narrative scenarios, limiting insight into interacting uncertainties. We map a scenario space for a whole energy system model using more than 4,500 cost optimal runs, then analyse the ensemble with global sensitivity analysis, scatter plot diagnostics and scenario discovery. This workflow identifies influential drivers, reveals thresholds and regime switching, and distinguishes robust from contingent technology portfolios under demand and weather variability. It also answers the reverse policy question, which combinations of assumptions are sufficient to reach, or avoid, target outcomes. By shifting emphasis from point comparisons to distributions, interactions and condition sets, the approach supports interactive exploration of trade-offs and risks, and prioritises where higher fidelity follow up analysis is most valuable. Compared with conventional scenario studies, scenario space substantially increases robustness and exposes boundary conditions that are typically hidden by narrative comparisons, turning energy models into stress tests that delineate where policy performs reliably, and where it becomes brittle. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy policy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8653364","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":584190011,"identity":"6c60b49e-4e07-44e0-8ae2-29f97fb3a355","order_by":0,"name":"Amir Fattahi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0UlEQVRIie3OvQrCMBDA8SuFdgl0jSj1FSJdHKq+ypVCXYovIGhFcCq4SR+nJYOTu1A3walDxo6mfoBTk9Eh/yk58iMHYDL9ZVYGEHYHAqV4TexMgyRAiSRVgd+Jsg+xiQ7xTvwgAOebhXup+Ky9+TDc9RNaR/sCMKaErJCn+AhgVCkWkwSs1paLpUwSHmU06ifjjgBuKfEaxqc6hL0Jp4TKX0CHTDqCeB7k14ZVecIDR0X8enkHgWvPPaaBaEPuezQue8kr/L046vcmk8lkUvUE7TRE+Z/19MMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0717-2257","institution":"TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research / Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Amir","middleName":"","lastName":"Fattahi","suffix":""},{"id":584190012,"identity":"656f530f-3e6f-4d39-9464-68cd577a9f96","order_by":1,"name":"Rebeka Beres","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1853-9242","institution":"TNO","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rebeka","middleName":"","lastName":"Beres","suffix":""},{"id":584190013,"identity":"3729a5d8-d7b8-4fcb-8ba1-b52ceda8c6ee","order_by":2,"name":"Mobi van der Linden","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3286-3169","institution":"TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mobi","middleName":"van der","lastName":"Linden","suffix":""},{"id":584190014,"identity":"e4825c38-7fb9-44d8-bc4f-bd6216940f07","order_by":3,"name":"Carlos Felipe Blanco","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8199-8420","institution":"TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research / Leiden University, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carlos","middleName":"Felipe","lastName":"Blanco","suffix":""},{"id":584190015,"identity":"6b8175a3-13e2-4fa9-83ee-2de0149574df","order_by":4,"name":"André Faaij","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research / Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"André","middleName":"","lastName":"Faaij","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-20 22:26:39","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8653364/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8653364/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105363173,"identity":"c8781eb4-1c1f-4e67-8e12-bb8d22340bf3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-25 08:13:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2050850,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ScenarioSpaceExplorationforRobustEnergyPlanning.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8653364/v1_covered_95540e81-4981-4f17-9c43-97da98b70f56.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Scenario Space Exploration for Robust Energy Planning","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8653364/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8653364/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Energy and climate assessments often contrast a few narrative scenarios, limiting insight into interacting uncertainties. 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