Water scarcity and the agricultural trade structure in Morocco: A quantification of virtual water flows in Morocco’s foreign trade of agricultural products

Water scarcity and the agricultural trade structure in Morocco: A quantification of virtual water flows in Morocco’s foreign trade of agricultural products | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Water scarcity and the agricultural trade structure in Morocco: A quantification of virtual water flows in Morocco’s foreign trade of agricultural products Said BOUDHAR, Abdeslam Boudhar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6080363/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Morocco, a semi-arid/arid country located at the northwest of Africa, is facing serious water scarcity driven by the dual-stresses of decreasing availability of water resources and increasing water demands. Virtual water trade could be an effective tool to alleviate water scarcity. The paper presents an analysis of the relationships between agrarian productions, foreign trade and water sector in Morocco by deriving a comprehensive estimate of virtual water export and import in Morocco’s foreign trade of 40 crop products during the period from 2000 to 2017. Our objectives include determining the intensity of water consumption of exported and imported crop products and quantifying the water consumed and saved, respectively, by locally producing and importing these products. To this end, FAO's Penman-Monteith climate model was used to estimate crop water requirements based on data on meteorological factors. The results show that Morocco was a net virtual water importer during the study period. The deficit was 595.74 Gm 3 . The tendency of total virtual water export was on a rising trend, while the total virtual water import was on a downward trend. The main exported virtual water was from vegetables (68.87 Gm 3 ., 72.47%) and the main imported virtual water was from cereals (679.68 Gm 3 ., 98.4%). Regarding crop product's water intensity, we found that the exported crop products were excessively concentrated on water intensive products such as mandarin and clementine, figs, orange, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas and artichokes. On the other hand, the agricultural policy 2009–2020 increased the production of water-intensive products. This finding seems to be geeing against the virtual water trade theory, which states that water-poor countries should import water-intensive products, and produce locally products with lower water requirements. Agricultural Economics & Policy Renewable Resources Virtual water trade Water scarcity Agricultural products Penman-Monteith climate model Morocco Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Figure 13 Figure 14 Figure 15 Figure 16 Figure 17 Figure 18 Figure 19 Figure 20 Figure 21 Figure 22 Figure 23 Figure 24 Figure 25 1. Introduction Insuring sustainable access to adequate water has become a big challenge facing the Moroccan policy makers. Morocco is considered as a freshwater scarcity country in that its per capita available freshwater resource is only 650 m3 (Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts, 2020). Two factors affect the water situation in Morocco: its climatic conditions and the anthropogenic pressures. Considering the first factor, Morocco’s climate is characterized by irregular and uncertain precipitations, and frequent and multi-year droughts. The average annual precipitation is around 346 mm and occurs mainly between autumn and spring. However, this average value conceals a huge geographical difference. On the one hand, the northwest receives an average of 700 mm of precipitation per year, which makes rainfed agriculture possible. On the other hand, the south-east receives only 25 mm per year, so that irrigation is essential for agricultural production. As a result, there are also considerable regional diversities of water availability between South and North Morocco. Indeed, the hydrographical map of the country is composed of nine hydrological basins (Table.1). Two of them, located in the north of the country, contain for about 47% of the total water resources, while they are home to only 19% of the total population and cover only 7.43% of the country’s area. Regarding anthropogenic pressures, the analysis of changes in supply and demand of water in Morocco shows that over the three past three decades, population growth, accelerating urbanization, and changing consumption patterns, have caused great pressures on water resources in Morocco. As a result, the water sector was in an expansionary phase marked by a strong increase in supply that accompanies the strong increase in demand. During this phase, the cost of mobilizing new water resources was relatively low since the country's water potential was largely underutilized. Currently, Morocco is in a second phase that Randall (1981) denominates "maturing water economy". This phase is characterized by high financial and environmental costs of mobilizing new water resources, conflicts between water users and the emergence of negative externalities. In fact, by 2030, Morocco's conventional freshwater resources will be completely mobilized (Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts 2020). As a result, to increase supply, Morocco has begun to resort to the mobilization of unconventional water resources (sewage treatment, desalination of seawater, demineralization of brackish water ...) (Economic, Social and Environmental Council of Morocco, 2013) Agriculture is the largest water-consuming sector in Morocco. It absorbs more than 87% of total water withdrawal[1] . Furthermore, irrigated agriculture is mainly export oriented. Morocco’s foreign agricultural trade value has been booming since 2010. In 2017, exports of agricultural products represented more than 22% of Morocco's total exports. The export volume increased by 59% since 2010. The international trade of agricultural products entails substantial flows of water in ‘virtual’ form among countries. Therefore, assessing the impact of international trade of agricultural commodities on water resources is helpful for understanding the driving forces behind water use and exploring new ways to mitigate the water scarcity problem in Morocco. The impact of trade of agriculture products on water resources can be assessed using the “Virtual water” concept. Since the 1990s, virtual water- or embedded water- has been emerging as a new perspective for water scarcity and water use management [ 9 , 10 ]. The virtual water concept was introduced by Allan in the 1990s [ 11 , 12 ]. It refers to the total volume of water used to produce a commodity. This volume depends on production conditions including time and place of production and the efficiency of water use. The virtual water trade refers to virtual water transfers associated with international trade of commodities. As a matter of fact, when a good is exported/ imported, the virtual water used for the production of this good is also implicitly exported/imported. International trade tied, therefore, an indirect link between water resources of a country and those of the countries with which it has trade relations. In 1999, Allan [ 13 ] suggested that a country could implement the virtual water trade strategy by importing water-intensive products from another country and reducing the exports of products with high water consumption. For this purpose, the Virtual Water Trade analysis was developed to estimate the virtual water flow embodied in trade of commodities. Many researchers have tried to assess the virtual water flow at global, regional and national scales. At global scale, virtual water trade research focuses more on the estimation of the global virtual water flows and the time series trends for virtual water trade ( [ 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ] and inversigated the drivers of trade pattern formation [ 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 ],. At regional scale, virtual water trade has been largely conducted in orther to explore the virtual water flows among multiple countries in a region or among countries in a basin. For example, Serrano et al[ 29 ] Antonellia et al [ 30 ], Fu et al [ 31 ], Wang et al[ 32 ] investigated the virtual water flows in the EU. Vanham[ 33 ] assessed the virtual water balance for agricultural products in EU river basins. Duarte et al[ 34 ] analysed the virtual water embodied in Mediterranean exports between 1910 and 2010. Hakimian [ 35 ], Antonellia and Tamea [ 36 ], Roson and Sartori [ 37 ], Saidi et al[ 38 ] Antonellia et al[ 39 ] Lee et al[ 40 ] analysed virtual water flows and virtual water trade patterns in MENA region. Yang et al[ 41 ] investigated food trade patterns in relation to water resources in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. Virtual water trade has been largely analysed at the national scale in china [ 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 ], Spain (e.g. [ 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 ]e.g. Italy (e .g. [ 56 , 57 , 58 ]), Korea[ 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 ] and Brazil [ 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 ]. A few scholars have conducted quantitative studies on Morocco’s virtual water flows. For instance, Hoekstra and Chapagain[ 67 ] assessed the water footprints of Morocco and the Netherlands from 1997 to 2001. They found that Morocco depends for 14% on on foreign water resources water resources, while the Netherlands depend for 95%. Boudhar et al. [ 68 ] implemented the concept of virtual water within an input output framework. The model is used to quantitatively assessing the relationships between economic sectors and water use (direct use), intersectoral water relationships (indirect use), and the economic benefits of water use. Haddad and Mengoub [ 69 ] estimated the virtual water exchanged between the Moroccan regions and with the rest of the world through the implementation of the concept of virtual water in an interregional input-output model. However, there is no scholar who has analysed the virtual water export and import in Morocco’s foreign trade of crop products and observed the changes over a long time. Therefore, the research on Morocco's international virtual water trade of agricultural products needs to be enriched. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between agrarian production, foreign trade of crop products and water sector in Morocco by deriving a comprehensive estimate of virtual water export and import in Morocco’s foreign trade of 40 crop products during the period from 2000 to 2017. The main objectives include determining the status of Morocco’s virtual water trade, calculating the intensity of water consumption of exported and imported crops and quantifying the water consumed and saved, respectively, by locally producing and importing these products. The results of this research provide new insights to mitigate the water stress situation the country is suffering from throughout a virtual water trade strategy. The original contribution of this study lies in the estimation method of the data used. In order to assess the water intensity of the exported and the imported crops, this paper use “crop water requirements” Data estimated according to climatic conditions and soil characteristics of the regions where they are cultivated and not crop water consumption data. In fact, the determinants of the orientation of certain agricultural sectors towards exports and the orientation of others towards the local market have historical roots. Therefore, the export-oriented sectors have benefited from a great support and have become much mechanized. Consequently, the irrigation techniques used in these sectors, and therefore water waste, are different compared to sectors oriented towards the local market. As a result, the use of crop water consumption data leads to erroneous conclusions. Thus, we can assert the advantage / disadvantage of locally producing, exporting or importing an agricultural product only if we neutralize the effect of mechanization through the estimation of the crop water requirements according to the climatic conditions and soil characteristics Table 1 water ressources (10 6 m 3 ), Population and Area (10 3 km 2 ) by river basin River basin Surface water (10 6 m 3 ) Groundwater (10 6 m 3 ) Total fresh water (10 6 m 3 ) Cumulative proportions Population (10 4 ) Cumulative proportions Area (10 3 km 2 ) Cumulative proportions Loukkos 3600 146 3746 17 300 10 12.805 1.80 Sebou 5600 1123 6723 47 620 19 40 7.43 Moulouya 1300 610 936 55 250 40 74.145 17.86 Bouregreg 852 84 3880 59 700 63 20.47 20.74 Oum Er Rbia 3300 580 1780 77 500 80 48.07 27.50 Tensift 1140 640 1780 85 272.310 90 24.8 30.99 Ziz Guir Rheris 656 240 896 89 76.250 92 58.841 39.27 Sous Massa Draa 1500 710 2210 98 190 99 126.48 57.06 Sahara 300 40 340 100 41.649 100 305.239 100 2. Material and methods 2.1. Estimation of the crop water requirements The estimating process of the crop water requirements and virtual water is presented in Fig. 2 . In this study, the crop water requirements are estimated by using the FAO Penman - Monteith model and the CROPWAT software developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The crop water requirement is defined in Allen et al [ 70 ] as the amount of water required by a crop achieving full production potential to compensate the water lost through the evapotranspiration. The same authors define the evapotranspiration as « a combination of two separate processes whereby water is lost on the one hand from the soil surface by evaporation and on the other hand from the crop by transpiration ». After irrigating a crop, liquid water enters the soil. Much of this water is absorbed by the roots of the plant, goes up into the leaves, and is evacuated as vapor through the stomata. This evacuation is called transpiration. Another quantity of water is evacuated as vapor from soil. This second type of evacuation is called evaporation. the sum of evaporation and transpiration is evapotranspiration (ET c ). The share of evaporation and transpiration in ET c varies according to the leaf area. At sowing, nearly 100% of the ETc comes from evaporation, while in full plant cover, more than 90% of the ET c comes from transpiration. Thus, the evapotranspiration and the crop water requirement are identical. According to the FAO Penman-Monteith model, evapotranspiration (ETc) depends on the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) and the cultural coefficient (Kc) [ 71 , 72 ]: ET c =K c ×ET 0 (1.6) The cultural coefficient depends on the characteristics of the plants and their development phases. The reference evapotranspiration is calculated according to the following equation [ 73 , 74 ] : $$\:{ET}_{0}=\frac{0.408\varDelta\:\left({R}_{n}-G\right)+\gamma\:\frac{{C}_{n}}{T+273}{u}_{2}\left({e}_{s}-{e}_{a}\right)}{\varDelta\:+\gamma\:\left(1+{C}_{d}{u}_{2}\right)}\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\left(1.7\right)$$ Where ET 0 or ET ref is the reference evapotranspiration; R n is the net radiation at the crop surface; G is the soil heat flux density at the soil surface; T is the mean daily or hourly air temperature at 1.5 to 2.5 m height; u 2 is the mean daily or hourly wind speed at 2 m height; ; e s is the saturation vapor pressure at 1.5 to 2.5 m height calculated for daily time steps as the average of saturation vapor pressure at maximum and minimum air temperature and for hourly time steps using hourly average air temperature; e a is the mean actual vapor pressure at 1.5 to 2.5 m height; \(\:\text{∆}\) is the slope of the saturation vapor pressure-temperature curve; \(\:\gamma\:\) is the Psychrometric constant; C n and C d are respectively the numerator and the denominator constant those change with calculation time step as shown in Tabe 2. Table 2 Units of Penman-Monteith equation parameters, C n and C d values for different calculation time steps Time step C n C d Units U 2 ; C d T e s ; ea Δ; γ ET o C n R n , G Daily time step 900 0.34 m s − 1 ° C kPa kPa °C − 1 mm d − 1 K mm s 3 Mg − 1 d − 1 MJ m − 2 d − 1 Hourly time step during daytime 37 0.24 mm h − 1 K mm s 3 Mg − 1 h − 1 MJ m − 2 h − 1 Hourly time step during nighttime 37 0.96 mm h − 1 K mm s 3 Mg − 1 h − 1 MJ m − 2 h − 1 Source: Author's own, based on Pereira et al. [ 75 ] In 1992, FAO integrated the FAO-Penman-Monteith model into a software called CROPWAT in order to facilitate the calculation of crop water requirements and irrigation requirements [ 76 ]. In order to overcome the lack of data needed to compute the FAO-Penman-Monteith model variables, FAO has developed the CLIMWAT for CROPWAT database [ 77 ], which provides the necessary climatic data assembled from 146 countries. 2.2. Quantification of the imported and the exported virtual water The international flows of imported virtual water (VWM i ) and exported virtual water (VWX i ) associated with a crop i , expressed in cubic meters, are calculated in this work, by multiplying the annual trade flows (exports (X i ) and imports (M i )) of the crop i , expressed in ton/year, by the water content of the crop i (WC i ), expressed in m 3 /tons: VWM i = Mi* WC i (1.1) And: VWX i = X i * WC i (1.2) A crop’s net exports of virtual water (NVW i ) are the value of its total virtual water exports minus the value of its total virtual water imports: NVW i = VWX i - VWM i (1.3) The water content (WC i ) associated with a crop i is defined as the volume of water required to produce one ton of this crop. It is obtained by dividing the crop water requirements (CWR i ) (m 3 /ha) by the crop yield (Y i ) (Ton/ha): WC i = CWR i /Y i (1.4) The yield of each crop i is obtained by dividing the production (P i ) by the cultivated area (CA i ): Y i = P i /CA i (1.5) 2.3. Data In this study, we have taken into account the imported and the exported virtual water embodied in trade from 2000 to 2017. A total of 40 crop products are considered. The crops imports and exports data come from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Trade System Database. The yield of each crop is extracted from the FAOSTAT database of FAO. Morocco's climatic data: The average daily maximum and minimum temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, the average daily sun hours, average solar radiation, and the monthly precipitations are extracted from CLIMWAT 2.0 for CROPWAT 8.0 database. Twelve meteorological stations covering the territory of Morocco are available in this database. Regarding the crop factors, CROPWAT contains a database of the variables that are needed. Nevertheless, this database does not contain all the crops considered in this paper. Therefore, we have created the files of the unavailable crops using data of crop planting times in Morocco from the FAO Crop Calendar database. Crop coefficients, crop development stages and rooting depths of each crop are obtained from Doorenbos and Pruitt [ 78 ]. Table 3 . Presents a summary of data sources. Table 3 Summary of data sources Data Data sources Exportation and importation per crop (Ton) USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) database [ 79 ]. Yield per crop (Ton/ha) FAOSTAT database of FAO [ 80 ]. Climatic data CLIMWAT database [ 81 ]. Crop factors CROPWAT database [ 82 ]. FAO crop Calendar database [ 83 ]. Crop coefficients, crop development stages and rooting depths of crops Doorenbos and Pruitt. 3. Results 3.1. Analysis of Morocco’s import and export 3.1.1. The variation of agricultural products import and export Following Morocco’s increasing openness to the world after Morocco joined GATT in 1987 and WTO in 1995, exports of agricultural products continuously increased during the period from 2000 to 2017. Morocco’s total export volume of agricultural products has achieved USD 33.583 billion during the study period. The export volume increased from USD 698.964 million in 2000 to USD 3399.168 million in 2017, by 4.9 times. Since 2012, this volume has experienced a vigorous growth. The number increased by 12% from USD 1691 million in 2009 to USD 2458 million in 2010 (Fig. 3). Morocco has established trading relationships with most countries and areas in the world. The top ten export destinations of Morocco’s agricultural products during the period 2000–2017 are France (USD 11.03 billion), Spain (USD 4.04 billion), Russia (USD 2.65 billion), Netherlands (USD 2.23 billion), United States of America (USD 1.5 billion), United Kingdom (USD 1.1 billion), Italy (USD 939 million), Germany (USD 926 million), Belgium (USD 819 million), and Canada (USD 629 million) (Fig. 4). The top ten countries accounted for 77% of total exported agricultural products during the study period. From the perspective of import, Morocco’s total import volume of agricultural products was USD 57.9 billion during the period from 2000 to 2017. This volume has increased from USD 1674 million in 2000 to USD 5254 million in 2017, by 3.13 times. During the period 2000–2006, the import volume increased steadily from USD 698.964 million to USD 2328 million, at an average rate of 6% per year. Since 2007, Morocco’s imports have been booming, reaching the highest value (5853 million USD) in year 2011 (Fig. 5). The top ten import sources of Morocco during this period are France (USD 10.77 billion), United States of America (USD 8.82 billion), Brazil (USD 8.60 billion), Argentina (USD 6.26 billion), Canada (USD 3.86 billion), Spain (USD 3.11 billion), Germany (USD 2.80 billion), China (USD 2.70 billion), Ukraine (USD 2.27 billion) and Netherlands (USD 1.84 billion) (Fig. 8). The imported volume of agricultural products of Morocco from the above ten countries accounted for approximately 88% of its total import volume from 2000 to 2017. 3.1.2. The variation of studied crops import and export Figure 6 presents the variation of Morocco’s exports by crop category from 2000 to 2017. It appears clearly that the crop categories that have significantly pulled the agriculural products import are Fruits and vegetables. The study period exhibits a rising trend. Morocco’s Fruits and vegetables exports increased respecterly from 2.76 million tons and 2.73 million tons in 2000 − 7.02 million tons and 8.11 million tons in 2017. during the period 2000–2017, the above-mentioned crop categories were responsible for respectively 78.81and 104.36 million tons of export. The highest values of fruits and vegetables exports were in 2010. (8.29 and 10.22 million tons respectively). Meanwhile, cereals were the main imported crops (Fig. 7). The tendency of cereals imports is basically on an irregular trend. The period from 2000 to 2017 suffers ups and downs every other year. The Morocco’s imports of cereals reached the highest value in 2016 (18 million tons). The lowest value was recorded in 2003 (3 million tons) and Morocco had accumulatively imported 150 million tons of cereals during the study period. Comparing the exports by crop category with the imports from 2000 to 2017, it can be found that Fruits and Vegetables are a net exporters crop categories. Their net exports were in a rising trend year by year and increased from 2.67 and 2.11 million tons respectively in 2000 to 6.38 and 7.31 million tons in 2017 (Fig. 8). Their aggregate net exports in the seventeen years achieved respectively 72.32 and 94.46 million tons. Cereals and pulses show a negative balance, which means that the imported volume is higher than the exported volume. Cereals is the most net importer crop category. It had a total net imports of 150,24 million tons during the study period, while pulses had a total net imports of 0.27 million tons. Analysis of the virtual water exports and imports in Morocco’s international trade of the studied crop products 3.2.1. Total virtual water imports and exports Our calculations show that the virtual water that Morocco exported to the world during the period 2000–2007 was 95.03 Gm 3 . The amount was 1.73 Gm 3 in 2000 and 7.86 Gm 3 in 2017. The exported virtual water flows had little inter-annual changes and the tendency of total virtual water export was on a rising trend (Fig. 9). The highest volume was recorded in 2017. That is because fruits and vegetables exports, which are water intensive agricultural commodities, significantly increased durring the period 2010–2017 (Fig. 6). Therefore, there was a significant pulling effect of these crop products on Moroccos’s virtual water export. Regarding the virtual water imports, Morocco had accumulatively imported 690.77 Gm 3 from 2000 to 2017. The total virtual water that Morocco imported during the study period was basically on a downward trend (Fig. 9). Morocco’s virtual water imports were 151.60 Gm 3 in 2000 and 26.66 Gm 3 in 2017. The annual average was 38.38. The highest volume of water imports (151.60 Gm 3 ) and the lowest volume (10.96) were reached respectively in 2000 and 2010. 3.2.2. The variation of virtual water exports by crop category It can be seen from Table.4, which demonstrates the virtual water exported by crop category, that the main exported virtual water was from vegetables. Virtual water exported by Morocco’s vegetables exports was approximately 68872.17 Hm 3 from 2000 to 2017, accounted for about 72.47% of the total volume of exported virtual water. The second was Fruits products (25773.69 Hm 3 ., 27.12%), then cereals (250.79 Hm 3 ., 0.26%) and pulses (137.29 Hm 3 ., 0.14%). Table 4 Exported and imported virtual water by crop category from 2000 to 2017 Virtual water exports (Hm 3 ) Percent (%) Virtual water imports (Hm 3 ) Percent (%) Total cereals 250.79 0.26 679681.71 98.4 Total pulses 137.29 0.14 2073.37 0.3 Total Fruits 25773.69 27.12 7569.30 1.1. Total vegetables 68872.17 72.47 1445.50 0.2 Total 95033.94 690769.87 As shown in Fig. 10, the tendency of the exported virtual water was on a rising trend as a whole in all crop categories except pulses. The detailed trend of the exported virtual water through the exports of vegetables and fruits is as follows: From 2000 to 2011, exported virtual water has experienced ups and downs every year. The highest exported virtual water volumes of fruits and vegetables during this period were respectively, 4325.50 hm 3 reached in 2010 and 6133.24 hm 3 reached in 2004, while the lowest exported virtual water volumes were respectively 356.22 hm 3 recorded in 2003 and 982.60 hm 3 recorded in 2000. The exported virtual water of fruits and vegetables followed a rising trend. In 2008, Morocco launched the "Green Morocco Plan (GMP) 2008–2020", which is a comprehensive development strategy aimed at transforming the agricultural sector into a source of growth and employment. Regarding exports development, this strategy aimed to increase agricultural exports from 1.35 million tons in 2008 to 4.6 million tons in 2020 (that is + 254%). As shown in Fig. 9, the GMP promoted the export of agricultural products in Morocco. As a result, from 2011 to 2017, the tendency of virtual water exports of fruits and vegetables was on a rising trend. With regard to cereals and pulses, the exported virtual water through the exports of these crop categories had slight inter-annual variations. The tendency of the total virtual water exported through the export of pulses per year were on the decline as a whole, while the tendency of the total virtual water exported through cereals exports was on a rising trend. The top five crop products in terms of virtual water export from 2000 to 2017 were olives (61201.13 Hm 3 ), pears (19819.31 Hm 3 ), Tomatoes (5126.37 Hm 3 ), Dates (1572.86 Hm 3 ) and Mandarin, Clementine (1479.36 Hm 3 ). The exported virtual water embedded in these crop products accounted for 94% of the total volume of exported virtual water through the exports of the crop products studied. In cereals category (Fig. 11), the main exported virtual was from Corn. The amount was 205.22 Hm 3 from 2000 to 2017, accounted for approximately 82% of the total virtual water embodied in cereals category. The second was Wheat (45.21 Hm 3 ., 18%), then Barley, Millet and Oats. With regard to the virtual water embedded in Pulses category (Fig. 12), chickpeas was the main virtual water exporter. The amount was approximately 117 Hm 3 from 2000 to 2017, accounted for 85% of the total volume of virtual water exported in Pulses category. The second was lentils Dried with approximately 20.30 Hm 3 , accounted for 15% of the total volume of virtual water exported in this category. As is illustrated in Fig. 13, the top five fruits in terms of virtual water exports were pears (19819.31 Hm 3 .,77%), Dates (1572.86 Hm 3 ., 6%), Mandarin, Clementine (1479.36 Hm 3 ., 6%), Raspberries (1104 Hm 3 .,4%), and Plums (578.60 Hm 3 ., 2%). The virtual water embedded in these products accounted for approximately 26% of the total volume of the exported virtual water embedded in the crop categories studied. In vegetables category (Fig. 14), the top four crop products that pulled Morocco’s virtual water exports are olives, tomatoes, beans and potatoes. From 2000 to 2017, the total virtual water exported by the above-mentioned 5 crop Products were respectively 61201.13 Hm 3 , 5126.37 Hm 3 , 1034.60 Hm 3 and 843 Hm 3 , accounted for 89%, 7%, 2%, and 1% of the total exports of virtual water in vegetables category. The proportion of the virtual water exported by these 4 crop products in the total exported virtual water embedded in the 41 crop products studied had been kept above 72%. 3.2.3. The variation of virtual water imports by crop category We see in Table.4 that the main imported virtual water was from cereals category during the period 2000–2017. The total amount of virtual water imported by Morocco’s cereals import was approximately 679.68 Gm 3 from 2000 to 2017, accounted for about 98.4% of the total volume of imported virtual water. The second was fruits products (7.57 Gm 3 ., 1.1%), then pulses (2.07 Gm 3 ., 0.3%) and vegetables (1.45 Gm 3 ., 0.2%). The trend that Morocco imported virtual water per year through the imports of cereals was on the decline while the exported was on a rising trend (Fig. 15). The annual average water imports of cereal was 37.76 Gm 3 . The highest volume was 150.60 Gm 3 reached in 2000 and the lowest volume was 10.40 reached in 2010. Concerning pulses category, the tendency of the total virtual water imported as well as that of the total virtual water exported through the exports of this category per year were on the decline as a whole. The year 2000 had the highest water imports with a figure of 813.69 Hm 3 . The lowest volume was 5.91 Hm 3 reached in 2015. The annual average was 115.19 Hm 3 . The tendency of imported virtual water was on a rising trend as a whole in fruits and vegetables categories. The highest imported virtual water volumes of fruits and vegetables during this period were respectively 635.27 Hm 3 reached in 2015 and 122.22 Hm 3 reached in 2017. The lowest volumes were respectively 77.39 Hm 3 reached in 2000 and 12.94 Hm 3 reached in 2010 (Fig. 15). In addition, as is reflected in Fig. 16 and Fig. 17, the virtual water imports and exports through the imports of vegetables raised at a growing rate. However, the average annual growth rate of virtual water imports (45%) was higher than that of virtual water exports (26%). Regarding fruits, the exported virtual water through fruits exports raised at an increasing rate and the virtual water imports raised at a decreasing rate. The average annual growth rate of virtual water imports of fruits was 22% while that of virtual water exports was 33%. The top five crop products in terms of virtual water imports during the study period were barley (304.95 Gm 3 ), corn (191.34 Gm 3 ), wheat (182.70 Gm 3 ), dates (5.52 Gm 3 ) and lentils dried (2.01 Gm 3 ). The imported virtual water embedded in these crop products accounted for 99% of the total volume of imported virtual water through the exports of the 40 crop products taken into account in this study. As is illustrated in Fig. 18, the main imported virtual water in cereals category was from barley. The imported virtual water through the imports of this crop product from 2000 to 2017 accounted for approximately 45% of the total virtual water embodied in cereals category. The second was corn (28%), then wheat (27%), Millet and Oats. The imported virtual water embedded in cereal products accounted for approximately 68% of the total volume of the imported virtual water embedded in the crop categories studied. With regard to the virtual water embedded in Pulses category (Fig. 19), lentils dried was the main virtual water importer. The amount was approximately 2014.50 Hm 3 from 2000 to 2017, accounted for 97% of the total volume of virtual water exported in Pulses category. The second was chickpeas with 58.87 Hm 3 . The top five fruits from the perspective of virtual water imports were dates (5523.69 Hm 3 .,73%), Pears (554.66 Hm 3 ., 7%), apples (520.01 Hm 3 ., 7%), grapes (411.37 Hm 3 .,5%), and bananas (333.97 Hm 3 ., 4%) (Fig. 20). The imported virtual water through the import of the sub-mentioned fruits products accounted for approximately 1% of the total volume of the imported virtual water embedded in the crop categories studied. Concerning vegetables category (Fig. 21), during the period 2000–2017, the top five crop products from the perspective of virtual water import are Potatoes (1177.17 Hm 3 ., 81%), Olives (105.21 Hm 3 .,7%), Tomatoes (71.24 Hm 3 ., 5%) peas (55.61 Hm 3 ., 4%) and Asparagus (16.76 Hm 3 ., 1%). 3.2.4. The net exports of virtual water driven With regard to virtual water balance, the results show that Morocco was a net virtual water importer during the study period. The deficit was 595.74 Gm 3 . At first glance, these findings seem satisfactory because the water situation in Morocco is alarming. Taking into account only these results, we can conclude that Morocco's foreign trade strategy is favorable to the country's water resources. However, Pursuant to Fig. 22, which shows the trend of the virtual water net exported from 2000 to 2017 through the trade of crop products, the tendency of the net imported virtual water was on a declining trend. The net imports of virtual water declined from 149.86 Gm 3 (2000) to 18.8 Gm 3 (2017). This is because the trend that Morocco exported virtual water was on the increase while the imported was on the decline. Compared to freshwater withdrawals in 2017, whish was 10.43 billion m 3 , the net imports of virtual water in 2017 accounted for 178%. As shown in Fig. 23, cereals and pulses had a negative virtual water trade balance during 2000–2017, which means that the amount of water imported is higher than the water exported, while fruits and vegetables categories had a positive virtual water trade balance due to the great volume of water exported when exporting these crop products. On the one hand, the main net imported virtual water during this period was from cereals category, approximately 679.43 Gm 3 during 2000–2017, then pulses (2 Gm 3 from 2000 to 2017). On the other hand, the main net exported virtual water was from vegetables, approximately 6 Gm3 from 2000 to 2017. The second was fruits category with 1.13 Gm3. It is important to note that cereals and pulses are important in Moroccans’ diet. Therefore, the satisfaction of the country's needs in these basic agricultural products through the external market and the lacks of water needed to produce them locally because of its allocation to export- oriented crops make Morocco in a situation of food and water dependency. Comparing the trade balance of crop products with crops water content, it can be found that the exported virtual water through exports of vegetables is far higher than the imported virtual water because of the exportation of water-intensive products, mainly olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas, artichokes, carrots, turnips and cauliflowers (Fig. 24). Olives had the highest water content and showed a significant exporting net balance. This finding strikes our attention since the Moroccan agriculture policy 2009–2020 “Green Morocco Plan” was intended to increase the areas under olive cultivation by 40% during the period 2009–2020. As a result, the area under olive trees increased from 720,000 ha in 2007 to 1,073,000 ha in 2019. The total production of olives sector has increased from 549,000 tons in 2007 to 1,414,000 tons in 2019 [84]. Regarding fruits, the top ten crop products with a negative water trade balance in term of water content, are mandarin and clementine, figs, orange, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, grapefruit, watermelons, raspberry and Peaches and nectarines (Fig. 25). It is outstanding that dates are a very water-intensive crop. Nevertheless, it has made a significant investment to increase production and exports of this sector. The Green Morocco Plan (GMP) had set the objective of increasing production of dates from 68,000 tons (2007) to 160,000 tons (2020). As a result, the area cultivated with date palm crop increased by 25% to 60,000 ha in 2019. The production increased by 50%, from 68,000 tons between to 102,000 tons over the same period [85]. The GMP was also intended to increase areas under citrus fruit and other fruits and vegetables cultivation by 52% and 76% respectively from 2009 to 2020. This suggests that the GMP did not aim to change agricultural specialization in crops with extremely high-water requirements. Instead, it aimed to intensify water-intensive crops that are primarily export-oriented (citrus, olives, other fruits and vegetables). 4. Conclusions and Policy implications This paper conducted a study of the relationship between international trade in crop products and water resources in Morocco by means of the concept of virtual water. For this purpose, we quantified the virtual water imported and exported through the trade of the 40 crop products from 2000 to 2017 with a view to explore new ways to alleviate the pressure on water resources in Morocco. At the end of this research, we could make a summary of the main conclusions of our analysis as follows: From 2000 to 2017, Morocco was a net virtual water importer. The net imported virtual water during this period was 595.74 Gm 3 . However, the exported virtual water per year was on a rising trend while the imported was on the decline. As a result, the tendency of the net imported virtual water embedded in agricultural products was on a declining trend. The net imports of virtual water declined from 149.86 Gm 3 in 2000 to 18.8 Gm 3 in 2017. The main imported virtual water was from cereals (679.43 Gm 3 ), which are a strategic agricultural product for Morocco’s food security. This situation makes the country in a situation of food and water dependence on other world regions. Fruits and vegetables are the major crop categories for pulling Morocco’s virtual water exports. The main net exported virtual water during this period was from vegetables, approximately 6 Gm 3 from 2000 to 2017. The second was fruits category (1.13 Gm 3 ). The exported virtual water through the export of vegetables is far higher than the imported virtual water because of the exportation of water-intensive products, mainly olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas, artichokes, carrots, turnips and cauliflowers. Concerning fruits category, the top ten crop products in term of water content with a negative water trade balance are mandarin and clementine, figs, orange, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, grapefruit, watermelons, raspberry and Peaches and nectarines. The agricultural policy 2009–2020 increased the production of export-oriented crop products that require a lot of water, mainly Dates, olives and citrus and other fruits and vegetables. From our findings, we could draw some interesting conclusions concerning the international trade of crop products in relation to water resource in Morocco. We could formulate our first conclusion as follows: Morocco, which is facing a difficult water situation, is a net exporter of products that intensively use water (mainly fruits and vegetables). This first conclusion seems to be geeing against the virtual water trade theory, that is, water-poor countries should import water-intensive commodities and produce locally non-water intensive commodities. These findings tend to reveal that Morocco has a trade structure of virtual water detrimental to its water resource. The second conclusion is that the GMP has strongly encouraged the production and export of water-intensive products. this suggests that it did not include a virtual water trade strategy. Based on the above conclusions, we are convinced there is a great potential to alleviate Morocco’s water scarcity by adjusting its international trade structure of crop products. To achieve this goal, Morocco should review its productive structure and reducing exports of products that require a large amount of water and replace them with products that require a small amount of water. For example, if we imported vegetables and fruits, we would be able to save a lot of water. In addition, if the export-oriented vegetables and fruits production was to be replaced by cereals, we would be able to mitigate the situation of food and water dependence on other world regions. Nevertheless, it should not be overlooked that changes in the productive specialization and the international commercial relations are very difficult and can only be achieved in the long term. In the short term, Morocco should change the use of water in agriculture on a large scale. The modification of the agricultural specialization and the commercial dealings remains however an unavoidable option. Declarations Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Acknowledgments We thank anonymous referees. All errors are our responsibility Funding: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. References R. J. Grimble. “Economic Instruments for Improving Water Use Efficiency: Theory and Practice.” Agricultural Water Management. 40 (1) (1999) 77–82. H. H. Savenije. “Why Water Is Not an Ordinary Economic Good, or Why the Girl Is Special.” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 27(11–22) (2002) 741–44. Z. Zhongming, L. Linong, Y. Xiaona, Z. Wangqiang, L. Wei , UN World Water Development Report 2021 ‘Valuing Water’. 2021. P. Steduto, J. M. Faurès, J. Hoogeveen, J. Winpenny, J. 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It can include water from renewable freshwater resources, as well as water from over-abstraction of renewable groundwater or withdrawal from fossil groundwater, direct use of agricultural drainage water, direct use of (treated) wastewater, and desalinated water. Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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of Morocco.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/eb69916bfee804d20bc5cc3b.png"},{"id":77057518,"identity":"8c8caee9-ba74-44c7-894c-bf32830f7f8f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:36","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":105114,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eCrop water requirements and virtual water estimating process.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/5cd1974a3ba6b7303ee60b6a.png"},{"id":77057452,"identity":"86871530-09a3-4ae3-a7b9-78163488f2e1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:28","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":377337,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eVariation of Morocco’s agricultural products import and export.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/821f010073ed3eb6ff14c72c.png"},{"id":77057449,"identity":"e36722b4-281b-40f3-841f-3a150d7d00e8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:27","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":613928,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMapping of exports flows of agricultural products to the top ten trading partners of Morocco from 2000 to 2017.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/d7ef16c4750861779d760684.png"},{"id":77057448,"identity":"b7f5b003-bc0a-4291-b881-e13be20eacac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:27","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":768054,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMapping of imports flows of agricultural products from the top ten trading partners of Morocco from 2000 to 2017.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/ee22a49237ab5747fcacaa46.png"},{"id":77057461,"identity":"30effd9f-f4cc-44a2-8e47-1a00805c56c0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:29","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":59537,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eVariation of Morocco’s exports by crop category from 2000 to 2017.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/3be5286cb4afb5b985745e9f.png"},{"id":77057451,"identity":"3ab489bd-118d-4f34-b994-fed0bd2c0c13","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:28","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":71882,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eVariation of Morocco’s imports by crop category from 2000 to 2017.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/26bf95a2d99f653a4b1843c4.png"},{"id":77057458,"identity":"1681a751-a44a-4a26-8f18-59204cdc9b56","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:29","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":66326,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMorocco’s trade balance (X-M) by crop category from 2000 to 2017\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/bc4e0d13c7e37b54dc2b5636.png"},{"id":77058597,"identity":"2d1bc2ac-a456-4e59-88a0-81140ee4f7ff","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 17:06:37","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":176875,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe trend of virtual water imports and exports in Morocco’s foreign trade of the studied crop products\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/d86ae73ddc0e710353e7f4df.png"},{"id":77057511,"identity":"9f34dd26-251e-4557-bba8-4fc6f84a5cc9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:36","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":217976,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrend of exported virtual water of Morocco by crop category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/ad9e56f773c63b05bd0fdae1.png"},{"id":77057506,"identity":"71267b2d-600b-43e6-adb3-b075174a709f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:35","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"Figure 11","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":88156,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eExports ratio of various crop products, cereals category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/2ceec1c6a9800bd576acc191.png"},{"id":77058317,"identity":"f5dbcad1-fe75-470d-a899-320ed61096cc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:58:29","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"Figure 12","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":82524,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eExports ratio of various crop products, Pulses category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/0ed2dfb349d7ee7d37bf1689.png"},{"id":77057456,"identity":"977c16fa-5cd7-4f90-8fe1-7f2b8d0551a0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:28","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"Figure 13","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":153300,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eExports ratio of various crop products, Fruits category\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"13.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/2c6f933b3caf77c8b21e52a0.png"},{"id":77058314,"identity":"88413416-d21c-451a-9c2f-163c3965eb6d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:58:29","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"Figure 14","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":138042,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eExports ratios of various crop products, Vegetables category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"14.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/022d73f1e77ac5edb6a6fa7b.png"},{"id":77057502,"identity":"4d3b985c-161b-4a31-954e-cdafd19b4a68","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:34","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"Figure 15","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":312042,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrend of imported virtual water of Morocco by crop category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"15.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/1b3e85e5835fad2f5f7a2e4b.png"},{"id":77057490,"identity":"25db7bfa-f5ba-4678-a94c-878b277e583a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:32","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"Figure 16","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":187278,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAnnual growth rate of vegetables and fruits imports.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"16.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/58ecb1af6b67b68889ca1949.png"},{"id":77057459,"identity":"59a524a4-bd9f-4d5f-a91f-5a74022e0f4f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:29","extension":"png","order_by":17,"title":"Figure 17","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":168853,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAnnual growth rate of Vegetables and Fruits exports.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"17.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/095f98b64e47f23a629da590.png"},{"id":77057515,"identity":"ac0426b9-f782-42d3-ac9c-82947b8ef7ba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:36","extension":"png","order_by":18,"title":"Figure 18","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":96092,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eImports ratio of various crop products, cereals category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"18.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/183fe9a506a0e459fb218124.png"},{"id":77057457,"identity":"621bc8b2-3519-40e0-8276-52a4c637fef7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:28","extension":"png","order_by":19,"title":"Figure 19","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":80611,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eImports ratio of various crop products, Pulses category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"19.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/07f6df8edc787ecfff2f0dd2.png"},{"id":77057470,"identity":"b86464d8-b930-4ff2-a618-e5d96cf6530a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:29","extension":"png","order_by":20,"title":"Figure 20","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":151381,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eImports ratio of various crop products, Fruits category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"20.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/14e0a08dbd792eef0d2a77f2.png"},{"id":77057484,"identity":"1d9103ca-8e8e-4d65-b962-d2da4a7297ef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:30","extension":"png","order_by":21,"title":"Figure 21","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":133090,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eImports ratio of various crop products, Vegetables category.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"21.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/b9f7f6b4103c1389a980acbb.png"},{"id":77058580,"identity":"676b18bd-d390-4db6-8f57-41b974de0b07","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 17:06:29","extension":"png","order_by":22,"title":"Figure 22","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":81597,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eNet exports of virtual water per year.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"22.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/dc96f46f43e221dc141baf8a.png"},{"id":77057507,"identity":"b34e6965-bf5f-40cf-809c-358347401251","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:36","extension":"png","order_by":23,"title":"Figure 23","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":108575,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eVirtual Water net exported by crop category per year.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"23.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/0c9918131be9fad7d238681c.png"},{"id":77058595,"identity":"e193bd19-debb-4e44-b77e-6aef68e383de","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 17:06:37","extension":"png","order_by":24,"title":"Figure 24","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":209713,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrade balance and average water content of vegetables from 2000-2017.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"24.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/9521042aa9db0ef023e7abc5.png"},{"id":77057505,"identity":"b8eadd27-e381-4004-bb2c-dbc8437dcb6b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 16:50:35","extension":"png","order_by":25,"title":"Figure 25","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":244192,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrade balance and average water content of fruits from 2000 to 2017.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"25.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/f03290922f168bbe56027672.png"},{"id":77059421,"identity":"ae89d931-a0c6-4be8-8410-0334372043f8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-24 17:14:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":5764241,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6080363/v1/5d3b0a91-b5db-424e-8ad7-d63be7110de8.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eWater scarcity and the agricultural trade structure in Morocco: A quantification of virtual water flows in Morocco’s foreign trade of agricultural products\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eInsuring sustainable access to adequate water has become a big challenge facing the Moroccan policy makers. Morocco is considered as a freshwater scarcity country in that its per capita available freshwater resource is only 650 m3 (Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts, 2020). Two factors affect the water situation in Morocco: its climatic conditions and the anthropogenic pressures. Considering the first factor, Morocco\u0026rsquo;s climate is characterized by irregular and uncertain precipitations, and frequent and multi-year droughts. The average annual precipitation is around 346 mm and occurs mainly between autumn and spring. However, this average value conceals a huge geographical difference. On the one hand, the northwest receives an average of 700 mm of precipitation per year, which makes rainfed agriculture possible. On the other hand, the south-east receives only 25 mm per year, so that irrigation is essential for agricultural production. As a result, there are also considerable regional diversities of water availability between South and North Morocco. Indeed, the hydrographical map of the country is composed of nine hydrological basins (Table.1). Two of them, located in the north of the country, contain for about 47% of the total water resources, while they are home to only 19% of the total population and cover only 7.43% of the country\u0026rsquo;s area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegarding anthropogenic pressures, the analysis of changes in supply and demand of water in Morocco shows that over the three past three decades, population growth, accelerating urbanization, and changing consumption patterns, have caused great pressures on water resources in Morocco. As a result, the water sector was in an expansionary phase marked by a strong increase in supply that accompanies the strong increase in demand. During this phase, the cost of mobilizing new water resources was relatively low since the country's water potential was largely underutilized. Currently, Morocco is in a second phase that Randall (1981) denominates \"maturing water economy\". This phase is characterized by high financial and environmental costs of mobilizing new water resources, conflicts between water users and the emergence of negative externalities. In fact, by 2030, Morocco's conventional freshwater resources will be completely mobilized (Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts 2020). As a result, to increase supply, Morocco has begun to resort to the mobilization of unconventional water resources (sewage treatment, desalination of seawater, demineralization of brackish water ...) (Economic, Social and Environmental Council of Morocco, 2013)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgriculture is the largest water-consuming sector in Morocco. It absorbs more than 87% of total water withdrawal[1]\u003ca class=\"FNLink\" href=\"#Fn1\" id=\"#FNLinkFn1\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003e. Furthermore, irrigated agriculture is mainly export oriented. Morocco\u0026rsquo;s foreign agricultural trade value has been booming since 2010. In 2017, exports of agricultural products represented more than 22% of Morocco's total exports. The export volume increased by 59% since 2010. The international trade of agricultural products entails substantial flows of water in \u0026lsquo;virtual\u0026rsquo; form among countries. Therefore, assessing the impact of international trade of agricultural commodities on water resources is helpful for understanding the driving forces behind water use and exploring new ways to mitigate the water scarcity problem in Morocco. The impact of trade of agriculture products on water resources can be assessed using the \u0026ldquo;Virtual water\u0026rdquo; concept. Since the 1990s, virtual water- or embedded water- has been emerging as a new perspective for water scarcity and water use management [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e]. The virtual water concept was introduced by Allan in the 1990s [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. It refers to the total volume of water used to produce a commodity. This volume depends on production conditions including time and place of production and the efficiency of water use. The virtual water trade refers to virtual water transfers associated with international trade of commodities. As a matter of fact, when a good is exported/ imported, the virtual water used for the production of this good is also implicitly exported/imported. International trade tied, therefore, an indirect link between water resources of a country and those of the countries with which it has trade relations.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 1999, Allan [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e13\u003c/span\u003e] suggested that a country could implement the virtual water trade strategy by importing water-intensive products from another country and reducing the exports of products with high water consumption. For this purpose, the Virtual Water Trade analysis was developed to estimate the virtual water flow embodied in trade of commodities. Many researchers have tried to assess the virtual water flow at global, regional and national scales. At global scale, virtual water trade research focuses more on the estimation of the global virtual water flows and the time series trends for virtual water trade ( [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e14\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e15\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e16\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e17\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e18\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e19\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e20\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e21\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e22\u003c/span\u003e] and inversigated the drivers of trade pattern formation [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e23\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e24\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e25\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e26\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e27\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e28\u003c/span\u003e],.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAt regional scale, virtual water trade has been largely conducted in orther to explore the virtual water flows among multiple countries in a region or among countries in a basin. For example, Serrano et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e29\u003c/span\u003e] Antonellia et al [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e30\u003c/span\u003e], Fu et al [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e31\u003c/span\u003e], Wang et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e32\u003c/span\u003e] investigated the virtual water flows in the EU. Vanham[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e33\u003c/span\u003e] assessed the virtual water balance for agricultural products in EU river basins. Duarte et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e34\u003c/span\u003e] analysed the virtual water embodied in Mediterranean exports between 1910 and 2010. Hakimian [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e35\u003c/span\u003e], Antonellia and Tamea [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e36\u003c/span\u003e], Roson and Sartori [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e37\u003c/span\u003e], Saidi et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e38\u003c/span\u003e] Antonellia et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e39\u003c/span\u003e] Lee et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e40\u003c/span\u003e] analysed virtual water flows and virtual water trade patterns in MENA region. Yang et al[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e41\u003c/span\u003e] investigated food trade patterns in relation to water resources in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVirtual water trade has been largely analysed at the national scale in china [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e42\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e43\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e44\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e45\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e46\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e47\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e48\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e49\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e50\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e51\u003c/span\u003e], Spain (e.g. [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR52\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e52\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e53\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e54\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e55\u003c/span\u003e]e.g. Italy (e .g. [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR56\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e56\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e57\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e58\u003c/span\u003e]), Korea[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR59\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e59\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR60\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e60\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e61\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR62\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e62\u003c/span\u003e] and Brazil [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR63\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e63\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e64\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e65\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR66\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e66\u003c/span\u003e]. A few scholars have conducted quantitative studies on Morocco\u0026rsquo;s virtual water flows. For instance, Hoekstra and Chapagain[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e67\u003c/span\u003e] assessed the water footprints of Morocco and the Netherlands from 1997 to 2001. They found that Morocco depends for 14% on on foreign water resources water resources, while the Netherlands depend for 95%. Boudhar et al. [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR68\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e68\u003c/span\u003e] implemented the concept of virtual water within an input output framework. The model is used to quantitatively assessing the relationships between economic sectors and water use (direct use), intersectoral water relationships (indirect use), and the economic benefits of water use. Haddad and Mengoub [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR69\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e69\u003c/span\u003e] estimated the virtual water exchanged between the Moroccan regions and with the rest of the world through the implementation of the concept of virtual water in an interregional input-output model. However, there is no scholar who has analysed the virtual water export and import in Morocco\u0026rsquo;s foreign trade of crop products and observed the changes over a long time. Therefore, the research on Morocco's international virtual water trade of agricultural products needs to be enriched.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between agrarian production, foreign trade of crop products and water sector in Morocco by deriving a comprehensive estimate of virtual water export and import in Morocco\u0026rsquo;s foreign trade of 40 crop products during the period from 2000 to 2017. The main objectives include determining the status of Morocco\u0026rsquo;s virtual water trade, calculating the intensity of water consumption of exported and imported crops and quantifying the water consumed and saved, respectively, by locally producing and importing these products. The results of this research provide new insights to mitigate the water stress situation the country is suffering from throughout a virtual water trade strategy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe original contribution of this study lies in the estimation method of the data used. In order to assess the water intensity of the exported and the imported crops, this paper use \u0026ldquo;crop water requirements\u0026rdquo; Data estimated according to climatic conditions and soil characteristics of the regions where they are cultivated and not crop water consumption data. In fact, the determinants of the orientation of certain agricultural sectors towards exports and the orientation of others towards the local market have historical roots. Therefore, the export-oriented sectors have benefited from a great support and have become much mechanized. Consequently, the irrigation techniques used in these sectors, and therefore water waste, are different compared to sectors oriented towards the local market. As a result, the use of crop water consumption data leads to erroneous conclusions. Thus, we can assert the advantage / disadvantage of locally producing, exporting or importing an agricultural product only if we neutralize the effect of mechanization through the estimation of the crop water requirements according to the climatic conditions and soil characteristics\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ewater ressources (10\u003csup\u003e6\u003c/sup\u003e m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), Population and Area (10\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e) by river basin\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"9\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c9\" colnum=\"9\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRiver basin\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurface water (10\u003csup\u003e6\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp;m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGroundwater (10\u003csup\u003e6\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp;m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotal fresh water (10\u003csup\u003e6\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp;m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCumulative proportions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePopulation (10\u003csup\u003e4\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCumulative proportions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea (10\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp;km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCumulative proportions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoukkos\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3600\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e146\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3746\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e17\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e300\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e10\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.805\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSebou\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5600\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1123\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6723\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e47\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e620\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e19\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.43\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoulouya\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1300\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e610\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e936\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e55\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e250\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e74.145\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.86\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBouregreg\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e852\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e84\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3880\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e59\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e700\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e63\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e20.47\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e20.74\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOum Er Rbia\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3300\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e580\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1780\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e77\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e500\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e48.07\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e27.50\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTensift\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1140\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e640\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1780\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e85\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e272.310\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e90\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e30.99\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eZiz Guir Rheris\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e656\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e240\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e896\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e89\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e76.250\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e92\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e58.841\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e39.27\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSous Massa Draa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1500\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e710\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2210\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e98\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e190\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e99\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e126.48\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e57.06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSahara\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e300\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e340\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e100\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41.649\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e100\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e305.239\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e100\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Material and methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1. Estimation of the crop water requirements\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe estimating process of the crop water requirements and virtual water is presented in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e. In this study, the crop water requirements are estimated by using the FAO Penman - Monteith model and the CROPWAT software developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe crop water requirement is defined in Allen et al [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR70\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e70\u003c/span\u003e] as the amount of water required by a crop achieving full production potential to compensate the water lost through the evapotranspiration. The same authors define the evapotranspiration as \u0026laquo; a combination of two separate processes whereby water is lost on the one hand from the soil surface by evaporation and on the other hand from the crop by transpiration \u0026raquo;. After irrigating a crop, liquid water enters the soil. Much of this water is absorbed by the roots of the plant, goes up into the leaves, and is evacuated as vapor through the stomata. This evacuation is called transpiration. Another quantity of water is evacuated as vapor from soil. This second type of evacuation is called evaporation. the sum of evaporation and transpiration is evapotranspiration (ET\u003csub\u003ec\u003c/sub\u003e). The share of evaporation and transpiration in ET\u003csub\u003ec\u003c/sub\u003e varies according to the leaf area. At sowing, nearly 100% of the ETc comes from evaporation, while in full plant cover, more than 90% of the ET\u003csub\u003ec\u003c/sub\u003e comes from transpiration. Thus, the evapotranspiration and the crop water requirement are identical.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the FAO Penman-Monteith model, evapotranspiration (ETc) depends on the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e) and the cultural coefficient (Kc) [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR71\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e71\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR72\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e72\u003c/span\u003e]:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eET\u003csub\u003ec\u003c/sub\u003e=K\u003csub\u003ec\u003c/sub\u003e\u0026times;ET\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e (1.6)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe cultural coefficient depends on the characteristics of the plants and their development phases. The reference evapotranspiration is calculated according to the following equation [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR73\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e73\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR74\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e74\u003c/span\u003e] :\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:{ET}_{0}=\\frac{0.408\\varDelta\\:\\left({R}_{n}-G\\right)+\\gamma\\:\\frac{{C}_{n}}{T+273}{u}_{2}\\left({e}_{s}-{e}_{a}\\right)}{\\varDelta\\:+\\gamma\\:\\left(1+{C}_{d}{u}_{2}\\right)}\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\left(1.7\\right)$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhere ET\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e or ET\u003csub\u003eref\u003c/sub\u003e is the reference evapotranspiration; R\u003csub\u003en\u003c/sub\u003e is the net radiation at the crop surface; G is the soil heat flux density at the soil surface; T is the mean daily or hourly air temperature at 1.5 to 2.5 m height; u\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e is the mean daily or hourly wind speed at 2 m height; ; e\u003csub\u003es\u003c/sub\u003e is the saturation vapor pressure at 1.5 to 2.5 m height calculated for daily time steps as the average of saturation vapor pressure at maximum and minimum air temperature and for hourly time steps using hourly average air temperature; e\u003csub\u003ea\u003c/sub\u003e is the mean actual vapor pressure at 1.5 to 2.5 m height; \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\text{∆}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the slope of the saturation vapor pressure-temperature curve; \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\gamma\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the Psychrometric constant; C\u003csub\u003en\u003c/sub\u003e and C\u003csub\u003ed\u003c/sub\u003e are respectively the numerator and the denominator constant those change with calculation time step as shown in Tabe 2.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnits of Penman-Monteith equation parameters, C\u003csub\u003en\u003c/sub\u003e and C\u003csub\u003ed\u003c/sub\u003e values for different calculation time steps\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"10\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c9\" colnum=\"9\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c10\" colnum=\"10\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTime step\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eC\u003csub\u003en\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eC\u003csub\u003ed\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colspan=\"7\" nameend=\"c10\" namest=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnits\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eU\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e\u0026nbsp;; C\u003csub\u003ed\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eT\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ee\u003csub\u003es\u003c/sub\u003e\u0026nbsp;; ea\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eΔ; γ\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eET\u003csub\u003eo\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eC\u003csub\u003en\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eR\u003csub\u003en\u003c/sub\u003e, G\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDaily time step\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e900\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.34\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003em s\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003csup\u003e\u0026deg;\u003c/sup\u003eC\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ekPa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ekPa \u0026deg;C\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003emm d\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eK mm s\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e Mg\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e d\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMJ m\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2\u003c/sup\u003e d\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHourly time step during daytime\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.24\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003emm h\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eK mm s\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e Mg\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e h\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMJ m\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2\u003c/sup\u003e h\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHourly time step during nighttime\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.96\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003emm h\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eK mm s\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e Mg\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e h\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMJ m\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2\u003c/sup\u003e h\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003ctfoot\u003e \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"10\"\u003eSource: Author's own, based on Pereira et al. [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR75\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e75\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tfoot\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 1992, FAO integrated the FAO-Penman-Monteith model into a software called CROPWAT in order to facilitate the calculation of crop water requirements and irrigation requirements [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR76\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e76\u003c/span\u003e]. In order to overcome the lack of data needed to compute the FAO-Penman-Monteith model variables, FAO has developed the CLIMWAT for CROPWAT database [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR77\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e77\u003c/span\u003e], which provides the necessary climatic data assembled from 146 countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2. Quantification of the imported and the exported virtual water\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe international flows of imported virtual water (VWM\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) and exported virtual water (VWX\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) associated with a crop \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e, expressed in cubic meters, are calculated in this work, by multiplying the annual trade flows (exports (X\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) and imports (M\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e)) of the crop \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e, expressed in ton/year, by the water content of the crop \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e (WC\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e), expressed in m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/tons:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVWM\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e = Mi* WC\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e (1.1)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnd:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVWX\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e= X\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e* WC\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e (1.2)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA crop\u0026rsquo;s net exports of virtual water (NVW\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e) are the value of its total virtual water exports minus the value of its total virtual water imports:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNVW\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e = VWX\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e - VWM\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e (1.3)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe water content (WC\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e) associated with a crop \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e is defined as the volume of water required to produce one ton of this crop. It is obtained by dividing the crop water requirements (CWR\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e) (m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/ha) by the crop yield (Y\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e) (Ton/ha):\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWC\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e= CWR\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e/Y\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e (1.4)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe yield of each crop \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e is obtained by dividing the production (P\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e) by the cultivated area (CA\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e):\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eY\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e= P\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e/CA\u003csub\u003ei\u003c/sub\u003e (1.5)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3. Data\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this study, we have taken into account the imported and the exported virtual water embodied in trade from 2000 to 2017. A total of 40 crop products are considered. The crops imports and exports data come from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Trade System Database. The yield of each crop is extracted from the FAOSTAT database of FAO.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMorocco's climatic data: The average daily maximum and minimum temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, the average daily sun hours, average solar radiation, and the monthly precipitations are extracted from CLIMWAT 2.0 for CROPWAT 8.0 database. Twelve meteorological stations covering the territory of Morocco are available in this database.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegarding the crop factors, CROPWAT contains a database of the variables that are needed. Nevertheless, this database does not contain all the crops considered in this paper. Therefore, we have created the files of the unavailable crops using data of crop planting times in Morocco from the FAO Crop Calendar database. Crop coefficients, crop development stages and rooting depths of each crop are obtained from Doorenbos and Pruitt [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR78\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e78\u003c/span\u003e]. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e. Presents a summary of data sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab3\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 3\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of data sources\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"2\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData sources\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eExportation and importation per crop (Ton)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUSDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) database [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR79\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e79\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYield per crop (Ton/ha)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFAOSTAT database of FAO [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR80\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e80\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimatic data\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCLIMWAT database [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR81\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e81\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCrop factors\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCROPWAT database [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR82\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e82\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFAO crop Calendar database [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR83\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e83\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCrop coefficients, crop development stages and rooting depths of crops\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDoorenbos and Pruitt.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.1. Analysis of Morocco’s import and export\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.1.1. The variation of agricultural products import and export\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFollowing Morocco’s increasing openness to the world after Morocco joined GATT in 1987 and WTO in 1995, exports of agricultural products continuously increased during the period from 2000 to 2017. Morocco’s total export volume of agricultural products has achieved USD 33.583\u0026nbsp;billion during the study period. The export volume increased from USD 698.964\u0026nbsp;million in 2000 to USD 3399.168\u0026nbsp;million in 2017, by 4.9 times. Since 2012, this volume has experienced a vigorous growth. The number increased by 12% from USD 1691\u0026nbsp;million in 2009 to USD 2458\u0026nbsp;million in 2010 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;3).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMorocco has established trading relationships with most countries and areas in the world. The top ten export destinations of Morocco’s agricultural products during the period 2000–2017 are France (USD 11.03\u0026nbsp;billion), Spain (USD 4.04\u0026nbsp;billion), Russia (USD 2.65\u0026nbsp;billion), Netherlands (USD 2.23\u0026nbsp;billion), United States of America (USD 1.5\u0026nbsp;billion), United Kingdom (USD 1.1\u0026nbsp;billion), Italy (USD 939\u0026nbsp;million), Germany (USD 926\u0026nbsp;million), Belgium (USD 819\u0026nbsp;million), and Canada (USD 629\u0026nbsp;million) (Fig.\u0026nbsp;4). The top ten countries accounted for 77% of total exported agricultural products during the study period.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFrom the perspective of import, Morocco’s total import volume of agricultural products was USD 57.9\u0026nbsp;billion during the period from 2000 to 2017. This volume has increased from USD 1674\u0026nbsp;million in 2000 to USD 5254\u0026nbsp;million in 2017, by 3.13 times. During the period 2000–2006, the import volume increased steadily from USD 698.964\u0026nbsp;million to USD 2328\u0026nbsp;million, at an average rate of 6% per year. Since 2007, Morocco’s imports have been booming, reaching the highest value (5853\u0026nbsp;million USD) in year 2011 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;5). The top ten import sources of Morocco during this period are France (USD 10.77\u0026nbsp;billion), United States of America (USD 8.82\u0026nbsp;billion), Brazil (USD 8.60\u0026nbsp;billion), Argentina (USD 6.26\u0026nbsp;billion), Canada (USD 3.86\u0026nbsp;billion), Spain (USD 3.11\u0026nbsp;billion), Germany (USD 2.80\u0026nbsp;billion), China (USD 2.70\u0026nbsp;billion), Ukraine (USD 2.27\u0026nbsp;billion) and Netherlands (USD 1.84\u0026nbsp;billion) (Fig.\u0026nbsp;8). The imported volume of agricultural products of Morocco from the above ten countries accounted for approximately 88% of its total import volume from 2000 to 2017.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.1.2. The variation of studied crops import and export\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFigure\u0026nbsp;6 presents the variation of Morocco’s exports by crop category from 2000 to 2017. It appears clearly that the crop categories that have significantly pulled the agriculural products import are Fruits and vegetables. The study period exhibits a rising trend. Morocco’s Fruits and vegetables exports increased respecterly from 2.76\u0026nbsp;million tons and 2.73\u0026nbsp;million tons in 2000 − 7.02\u0026nbsp;million tons and 8.11\u0026nbsp;million tons in 2017. during the period 2000–2017, the above-mentioned crop categories were responsible for respectively 78.81and 104.36\u0026nbsp;million tons of export. The highest values of fruits and vegetables exports were in 2010. (8.29 and 10.22\u0026nbsp;million tons respectively).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, cereals were the main imported crops (Fig.\u0026nbsp;7). The tendency of cereals imports is basically on an irregular trend. The period from 2000 to 2017 suffers ups and downs every other year. The Morocco’s imports of cereals reached the highest value in 2016 (18\u0026nbsp;million tons). The lowest value was recorded in 2003 (3\u0026nbsp;million tons) and Morocco had accumulatively imported 150\u0026nbsp;million tons of cereals during the study period.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eComparing the exports by crop category with the imports from 2000 to 2017, it can be found that Fruits and Vegetables are a net exporters crop categories. Their net exports were in a rising trend year by year and increased from 2.67 and 2.11\u0026nbsp;million tons respectively in 2000 to 6.38 and 7.31\u0026nbsp;million tons in 2017 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;8). Their aggregate net exports in the seventeen years achieved respectively 72.32 and 94.46\u0026nbsp;million tons.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCereals and pulses show a negative balance, which means that the imported volume is higher than the exported volume. Cereals is the most net importer crop category. It had a total net imports of 150,24\u0026nbsp;million tons during the study period, while pulses had a total net imports of 0.27\u0026nbsp;million tons.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAnalysis of the virtual water exports and imports in Morocco’s international trade of the studied crop products\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.2.1. Total virtual water imports and exports\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOur calculations show that the virtual water that Morocco exported to the world during the period 2000–2007 was 95.03 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e. The amount was 1.73 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e in 2000 and 7.86 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e in 2017. The exported virtual water flows had little inter-annual changes and the tendency of total virtual water export was on a rising trend (Fig.\u0026nbsp;9). The highest volume was recorded in 2017. That is because fruits and vegetables exports, which are water intensive agricultural commodities, significantly increased durring the period 2010–2017 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;6). Therefore, there was a significant pulling effect of these crop products on Moroccos’s virtual water export.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRegarding the virtual water imports, Morocco had accumulatively imported 690.77 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017. The total virtual water that Morocco imported during the study period was basically on a downward trend (Fig.\u0026nbsp;9). Morocco’s virtual water imports were 151.60 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e in 2000 and 26.66 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e in 2017. The annual average was 38.38. The highest volume of water imports (151.60 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e) and the lowest volume (10.96) were reached respectively in 2000 and 2010.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.2.2. The variation of virtual water exports by crop category\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIt can be seen from Table.4, which demonstrates the virtual water exported by crop category, that the main exported virtual water was from vegetables. Virtual water exported by Morocco’s vegetables exports was approximately 68872.17 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017, accounted for about 72.47% of the total volume of exported virtual water. The second was Fruits products (25773.69 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 27.12%), then cereals (250.79 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 0.26%) and pulses (137.29 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 0.14%).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv\u003e\n \u003ctable id=\"Tab4\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv\u003eTable 4\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eExported and imported virtual water by crop category from 2000 to 2017\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVirtual water exports (Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePercent (%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVirtual water imports (Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePercent (%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTotal cereals\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e250.79\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.26\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e679681.71\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e98.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTotal pulses\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e137.29\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.14\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2073.37\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.3\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTotal Fruits\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e25773.69\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e27.12\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7569.30\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.1.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTotal vegetables\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e68872.17\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e72.47\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1445.50\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTotal\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e95033.94\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e690769.87\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;10, the tendency of the exported virtual water was on a rising trend as a whole in all crop categories except pulses. The detailed trend of the exported virtual water through the exports of vegetables and fruits is as follows: From 2000 to 2011, exported virtual water has experienced ups and downs every year. The highest exported virtual water volumes of fruits and vegetables during this period were respectively, 4325.50 hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2010 and 6133.24 hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2004, while the lowest exported virtual water volumes were respectively 356.22 hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e recorded in 2003 and 982.60 hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e recorded in 2000.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe exported virtual water of fruits and vegetables followed a rising trend. In 2008, Morocco launched the \"Green Morocco Plan (GMP) 2008–2020\", which is a comprehensive development strategy aimed at transforming the agricultural sector into a source of growth and employment. Regarding exports development, this strategy aimed to increase agricultural exports from 1.35\u0026nbsp;million tons in 2008 to 4.6\u0026nbsp;million tons in 2020 (that is + 254%). As shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;9, the GMP promoted the export of agricultural products in Morocco. As a result, from 2011 to 2017, the tendency of virtual water exports of fruits and vegetables was on a rising trend.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWith regard to cereals and pulses, the exported virtual water through the exports of these crop categories had slight inter-annual variations. The tendency of the total virtual water exported through the export of pulses per year were on the decline as a whole, while the tendency of the total virtual water exported through cereals exports was on a rising trend.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe top five crop products in terms of virtual water export from 2000 to 2017 were olives (61201.13 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), pears (19819.31 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), Tomatoes (5126.37 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), Dates (1572.86 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e) and Mandarin, Clementine (1479.36 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e). The exported virtual water embedded in these crop products accounted for 94% of the total volume of exported virtual water through the exports of the crop products studied.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn cereals category (Fig.\u0026nbsp;11), the main exported virtual was from Corn. The amount was 205.22 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017, accounted for approximately 82% of the total virtual water embodied in cereals category. The second was Wheat (45.21 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 18%), then Barley, Millet and Oats.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWith regard to the virtual water embedded in Pulses category (Fig.\u0026nbsp;12), chickpeas was the main virtual water exporter. The amount was approximately 117 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017, accounted for 85% of the total volume of virtual water exported in Pulses category. The second was lentils Dried with approximately 20.30 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, accounted for 15% of the total volume of virtual water exported in this category.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAs is illustrated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;13, the top five fruits in terms of virtual water exports were pears (19819.31 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.,77%), Dates (1572.86 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 6%), Mandarin, Clementine (1479.36 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 6%), Raspberries (1104 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.,4%), and Plums (578.60 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 2%). The virtual water embedded in these products accounted for approximately 26% of the total volume of the exported virtual water embedded in the crop categories studied.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn vegetables category (Fig.\u0026nbsp;14), the top four crop products that pulled Morocco’s virtual water exports are olives, tomatoes, beans and potatoes. From 2000 to 2017, the total virtual water exported by the above-mentioned 5 crop Products were respectively 61201.13 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, 5126.37 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, 1034.60 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e and 843 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, accounted for 89%, 7%, 2%, and 1% of the total exports of virtual water in vegetables category. The proportion of the virtual water exported by these 4 crop products in the total exported virtual water embedded in the 41 crop products studied had been kept above 72%.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.2.3. The variation of virtual water imports by crop category\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWe see in Table.4 that the main imported virtual water was from cereals category during the period 2000–2017. The total amount of virtual water imported by Morocco’s cereals import was approximately 679.68 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017, accounted for about 98.4% of the total volume of imported virtual water. The second was fruits products (7.57 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e ., 1.1%), then pulses (2.07 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 0.3%) and vegetables (1.45 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 0.2%).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe trend that Morocco imported virtual water per year through the imports of cereals was on the decline while the exported was on a rising trend (Fig.\u0026nbsp;15). The annual average water imports of cereal was 37.76 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e. The highest volume was 150.60 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2000 and the lowest volume was 10.40 reached in 2010. Concerning pulses category, the tendency of the total virtual water imported as well as that of the total virtual water exported through the exports of this category per year were on the decline as a whole. The year 2000 had the highest water imports with a figure of 813.69 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e. The lowest volume was 5.91 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2015. The annual average was 115.19 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe tendency of imported virtual water was on a rising trend as a whole in fruits and vegetables categories. The highest imported virtual water volumes of fruits and vegetables during this period were respectively 635.27 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2015 and 122.22 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2017. The lowest volumes were respectively 77.39 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2000 and 12.94 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e reached in 2010 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;15). In addition, as is reflected in Fig.\u0026nbsp;16 and Fig.\u0026nbsp;17, the virtual water imports and exports through the imports of vegetables raised at a growing rate. However, the average annual growth rate of virtual water imports (45%) was higher than that of virtual water exports (26%). Regarding fruits, the exported virtual water through fruits exports raised at an increasing rate and the virtual water imports raised at a decreasing rate. The average annual growth rate of virtual water imports of fruits was 22% while that of virtual water exports was 33%.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe top five crop products in terms of virtual water imports during the study period were barley (304.95 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), corn (191.34 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), wheat (182.70 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), dates (5.52 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e) and lentils dried (2.01 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e). The imported virtual water embedded in these crop products accounted for 99% of the total volume of imported virtual water through the exports of the 40 crop products taken into account in this study.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAs is illustrated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;18, the main imported virtual water in cereals category was from barley. The imported virtual water through the imports of this crop product from 2000 to 2017 accounted for approximately 45% of the total virtual water embodied in cereals category. The second was corn (28%), then wheat (27%), Millet and Oats. The imported virtual water embedded in cereal products accounted for approximately 68% of the total volume of the imported virtual water embedded in the crop categories studied.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWith regard to the virtual water embedded in Pulses category (Fig.\u0026nbsp;19), lentils dried was the main virtual water importer. The amount was approximately 2014.50 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017, accounted for 97% of the total volume of virtual water exported in Pulses category. The second was chickpeas with 58.87 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe top five fruits from the perspective of virtual water imports were dates (5523.69 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.,73%), Pears (554.66 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 7%), apples (520.01 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 7%), grapes (411.37 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.,5%), and bananas (333.97 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 4%) (Fig.\u0026nbsp;20). The imported virtual water through the import of the sub-mentioned fruits products accounted for approximately 1% of the total volume of the imported virtual water embedded in the crop categories studied.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eConcerning vegetables category (Fig.\u0026nbsp;21), during the period 2000–2017, the top five crop products from the perspective of virtual water import are Potatoes (1177.17 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 81%), Olives (105.21 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e.,7%), Tomatoes (71.24 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 5%) peas (55.61 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 4%) and Asparagus (16.76 Hm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 1%).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.2.4. The net exports of virtual water driven\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWith regard to virtual water balance, the results show that Morocco was a net virtual water importer during the study period. The deficit was 595.74 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e. At first glance, these findings seem satisfactory because the water situation in Morocco is alarming. Taking into account only these results, we can conclude that Morocco's foreign trade strategy is favorable to the country's water resources. However, Pursuant to Fig.\u0026nbsp;22, which shows the trend of the virtual water net exported from 2000 to 2017 through the trade of crop products, the tendency of the net imported virtual water was on a declining trend. The net imports of virtual water declined from 149.86 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e (2000) to 18.8 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e (2017). This is because the trend that Morocco exported virtual water was on the increase while the imported was on the decline. Compared to freshwater withdrawals in 2017, whish was 10.43\u0026nbsp;billion m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, the net imports of virtual water in 2017 accounted for 178%.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;23, cereals and pulses had a negative virtual water trade balance during 2000–2017, which means that the amount of water imported is higher than the water exported, while fruits and vegetables categories had a positive virtual water trade balance due to the great volume of water exported when exporting these crop products. On the one hand, the main net imported virtual water during this period was from cereals category, approximately 679.43 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e during 2000–2017, then pulses (2 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017). On the other hand, the main net exported virtual water was from vegetables, approximately 6 Gm3 from 2000 to 2017. The second was fruits category with 1.13 Gm3. It is important to note that cereals and pulses are important in Moroccans’ diet. Therefore, the satisfaction of the country's needs in these basic agricultural products through the external market and the lacks of water needed to produce them locally because of its allocation to export- oriented crops make Morocco in a situation of food and water dependency.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eComparing the trade balance of crop products with crops water content, it can be found that the exported virtual water through exports of vegetables is far higher than the imported virtual water because of the exportation of water-intensive products, mainly olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas, artichokes, carrots, turnips and cauliflowers (Fig.\u0026nbsp;24). Olives had the highest water content and showed a significant exporting net balance. This finding strikes our attention since the Moroccan agriculture policy 2009–2020 “Green Morocco Plan” was intended to increase the areas under olive cultivation by 40% during the period 2009–2020. As a result, the area under olive trees increased from 720,000 ha in 2007 to 1,073,000 ha in 2019. The total production of olives sector has increased from 549,000 tons in 2007 to 1,414,000 tons in 2019 [84].\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRegarding fruits, the top ten crop products with a negative water trade balance in term of water content, are mandarin and clementine, figs, orange, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, grapefruit, watermelons, raspberry and Peaches and nectarines (Fig.\u0026nbsp;25). It is outstanding that dates are a very water-intensive crop. Nevertheless, it has made a significant investment to increase production and exports of this sector. The Green Morocco Plan (GMP) had set the objective of increasing production of dates from 68,000 tons (2007) to 160,000 tons (2020). As a result, the area cultivated with date palm crop increased by 25% to 60,000 ha in 2019. The production increased by 50%, from 68,000 tons between to 102,000 tons over the same period [85]. The GMP was also intended to increase areas under citrus fruit and other fruits and vegetables cultivation by 52% and 76% respectively from 2009 to 2020. This suggests that the GMP did not aim to change agricultural specialization in crops with extremely high-water requirements. Instead, it aimed to intensify water-intensive crops that are primarily export-oriented (citrus, olives, other fruits and vegetables).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Conclusions and Policy implications","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper conducted a study of the relationship between international trade in crop products and water resources in Morocco by means of the concept of virtual water. For this purpose, we quantified the virtual water imported and exported through the trade of the 40 crop products from 2000 to 2017 with a view to explore new ways to alleviate the pressure on water resources in Morocco.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAt the end of this research, we could make a summary of the main conclusions of our analysis as follows:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003col\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom 2000 to 2017, Morocco was a net virtual water importer. The net imported virtual water during this period was 595.74 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e. However, the exported virtual water per year was on a rising trend while the imported was on the decline. As a result, the tendency of the net imported virtual water embedded in agricultural products was on a declining trend. The net imports of virtual water declined from 149.86 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e in 2000 to 18.8 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e in 2017. The main imported virtual water was from cereals (679.43 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), which are a strategic agricultural product for Morocco\u0026rsquo;s food security. This situation makes the country in a situation of food and water dependence on other world regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eFruits and vegetables are the major crop categories for pulling Morocco\u0026rsquo;s virtual water exports. The main net exported virtual water during this period was from vegetables, approximately 6 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e from 2000 to 2017. The second was fruits category (1.13 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e). The exported virtual water through the export of vegetables is far higher than the imported virtual water because of the exportation of water-intensive products, mainly olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas, artichokes, carrots, turnips and cauliflowers. Concerning fruits category, the top ten crop products in term of water content with a negative water trade balance are mandarin and clementine, figs, orange, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, grapefruit, watermelons, raspberry and Peaches and nectarines.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe agricultural policy 2009\u0026ndash;2020 increased the production of export-oriented crop products that require a lot of water, mainly Dates, olives and citrus and other fruits and vegetables.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003c/ol\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom our findings, we could draw some interesting conclusions concerning the international trade of crop products in relation to water resource in Morocco. We could formulate our first conclusion as follows: Morocco, which is facing a difficult water situation, is a net exporter of products that intensively use water (mainly fruits and vegetables). This first conclusion seems to be geeing against the virtual water trade theory, that is, water-poor countries should import water-intensive commodities and produce locally non-water intensive commodities. These findings tend to reveal that Morocco has a trade structure of virtual water detrimental to its water resource.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe second conclusion is that the GMP has strongly encouraged the production and export of water-intensive products. this suggests that it did not include a virtual water trade strategy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on the above conclusions, we are convinced there is a great potential to alleviate Morocco\u0026rsquo;s water scarcity by adjusting its international trade structure of crop products. To achieve this goal, Morocco should review its productive structure and reducing exports of products that require a large amount of water and replace them with products that require a small amount of water. For example, if we imported vegetables and fruits, we would be able to save a lot of water. In addition, if the export-oriented vegetables and fruits production was to be replaced by cereals, we would be able to mitigate the situation of food and water dependence on other world regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNevertheless, it should not be overlooked that changes in the productive specialization and the international commercial relations are very difficult and can only be achieved in the long term. In the short term, Morocco should change the use of water in agriculture on a large scale. The modification of the agricultural specialization and the commercial dealings remains however an unavoidable option.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDeclaration of competing interest\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe thank anonymous referees. All errors are our responsibility\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\n"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eR. J. 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Steduto, J. M. Faur\u0026egrave;s, J. Hoogeveen, J. Winpenny, J. Burke, Coping with water scarcity: an action framework for agriculture and food security. FAO water reports, 16 (2012) 78.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFAO, Term portal. https://www.fao.org/faoterm/en/?defaultCollId=7, 2022 (accessed 26 March 2022).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Footnotes","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003e The definition of \u0026laquo; Total water withdrawal \u0026raquo; adopted in this study is that provided by FAO [89] : Total water withdrawal is the annual quantity of water withdrawn for agricultural, industrial and municipal purposes. It can include water from renewable freshwater resources, as well as water from over-abstraction of renewable groundwater or withdrawal from fossil groundwater, direct use of agricultural drainage water, direct use of (treated) wastewater, and desalinated water.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Virtual water trade, Water scarcity, Agricultural products, Penman-Monteith climate model, Morocco","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6080363/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6080363/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMorocco, a semi-arid/arid country located at the northwest of Africa, is facing serious water scarcity driven by the dual-stresses of decreasing availability of water resources and increasing water demands. Virtual water trade could be an effective tool to alleviate water scarcity. The paper presents an analysis of the relationships between agrarian productions, foreign trade and water sector in Morocco by deriving a comprehensive estimate of virtual water export and import in Morocco\u0026rsquo;s foreign trade of 40 crop products during the period from 2000 to 2017. Our objectives include determining the intensity of water consumption of exported and imported crop products and quantifying the water consumed and saved, respectively, by locally producing and importing these products. To this end, FAO's Penman-Monteith climate model was used to estimate crop water requirements based on data on meteorological factors. The results show that Morocco was a net virtual water importer during the study period. The deficit was 595.74 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e. The tendency of total virtual water export was on a rising trend, while the total virtual water import was on a downward trend. The main exported virtual water was from vegetables (68.87 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 72.47%) and the main imported virtual water was from cereals (679.68 Gm\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e., 98.4%). Regarding crop product's water intensity, we found that the exported crop products were excessively concentrated on water intensive products such as mandarin and clementine, figs, orange, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas and artichokes. On the other hand, the agricultural policy 2009\u0026ndash;2020 increased the production of water-intensive products. This finding seems to be geeing against the virtual water trade theory, which states that water-poor countries should import water-intensive products, and produce locally products with lower water requirements.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Water scarcity and the agricultural trade structure in Morocco: A quantification of virtual water flows in Morocco’s foreign trade of agricultural products","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-02-24 16:50:08","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6080363/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5133fdb9-e17d-4cba-8985-8ca666ee14e6","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":44691495,"name":"Agricultural Economics \u0026 Policy"},{"id":44691496,"name":"Renewable Resources"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-02-24T16:50:08+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-02-24 16:50:08","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6080363","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6080363","identity":"rs-6080363","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}