Reconstructing emission pathways for developing countries

Reconstructing emission pathways for developing countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Reconstructing emission pathways for developing countries Jing Meng, Shuping Li, Jinglei Wang, Dabo Guan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5988032/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Addressing climate change requires accurate emission baseline and robust model-based projections to simulate future emission mitigation pathways. However, emission baseline data in existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are inaccurate and inconsistent. In particular, they cannot capture recent emission surges in those small and medium-sized developing countries, causing large discrepancies of projections of global carbon space, which are crucial for setting climate policy. We compiled time-series emission inventories for 60 developing countries, ensuring consistency and full validation using all available regional, national and international energy and socioeconomic data. We refine emission baseline for six leading IAMs, and find that their original baselines differ from the new estimates in a range of -45.7% to 76.4% between 2010 and 2020, primarily due to inappropriate growth rates settings. Adopting refined historical emission trends, we re-calculate future emission pathways for developing countries and the globe. Our new estimates show that countries in Asia would require a median of 81 Gt of carbon space (2.2 times of global total emission in 2023) in the SSP245 scenario from 2020 to 2050 cumulatively, a difference of -30.3% to 35.5% compared to the estimates provided by IAM models. Even under the fast decarbonization scenario of SSP119, developing countries like Vietnam, Benin and Ethiopia reliant on fossil fuels, would need a median carbon space of 120.6 Mt, 4.9 Mt, and 11.5 Mt, respectively, by 2040. In the short term, constrained capacities impede these countries from shifting emissions trajectories, as inertia scenarios incorporating historical trends frequently align with SSP585 scenarios, revealing the dilemma between development priorities and the pursuit of low-carbon goals. These findings emphasize additional carbon space needed by swiftly growing developing countries, which is shadowed by projections from current IAM models and should be fully considered in global carbon budget allocations and future mitigation effort needed. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Carbon and energy/Energy modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementarysoftwarefile.pdf Supplementary software file SupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Information suppsoftware.pdf Supplementary software file Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5988032","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":416630034,"identity":"909e04a6-e06d-40aa-905c-cb8ed9bded63","order_by":0,"name":"Jing Meng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxmYQyQNhP2BgsICwGojUwmzAwCBBWAsyYJMgSgtzO+/hFwwyDNH80u3XqnlqJBj42w+wSc7A6zC+NAugw3JnzjlTdpvnmASDxJkENskNeLXwmBmAtGy4kZN2m7cB6LAbDGySD4jRsh+opRikRZ4ILcYPwLZIpB9jBmkxAGkh5DCGBB6J3Bk3cpgl5xyT4DE8k9hsic/7hv1njD987LHJ7Z+R/vDDmxobObnjhw/e7MGnpQEYHYk9oOjgMQAJ8BCMSHlg1Hxg+AFisj/Aq3IUjIJRMApGLgAArQZDbQQ/wtkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8708-0485","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"","lastName":"Meng","suffix":""},{"id":416630035,"identity":"03dbb63c-5219-4ca4-8f38-1f777c38c3bb","order_by":1,"name":"Shuping Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shuping","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":416630036,"identity":"fa313e35-404d-4869-8227-357e317f73de","order_by":2,"name":"Jinglei Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jinglei","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":416630037,"identity":"9046f674-7fa0-4db8-a278-7df7cd9562f1","order_by":3,"name":"Dabo Guan","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3773-3403","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dabo","middleName":"","lastName":"Guan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-08 13:35:09","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5988032/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5988032/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99793534,"identity":"697eb2f9-a7b2-42d1-807e-4a5ea5b075af","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:31:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1278417,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File - 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However, emission baseline data in existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are inaccurate and inconsistent. In particular, they cannot capture recent emission surges in those small and medium-sized developing countries, causing large discrepancies of projections of global carbon space, which are crucial for setting climate policy. We compiled time-series emission inventories for 60 developing countries, ensuring consistency and full validation using all available regional, national and international energy and socioeconomic data. We refine emission baseline for six leading IAMs, and find that their original baselines differ from the new estimates in a range of -45.7% to 76.4% between 2010 and 2020, primarily due to inappropriate growth rates settings. Adopting refined historical emission trends, we re-calculate future emission pathways for developing countries and the globe. 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