Risk assessment of failure of irrigation rules for parallel "reservoir-pumping station" system under the background of climate change

Risk assessment of failure of irrigation rules for parallel "reservoir-pumping station" system under the background of climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Risk assessment of failure of irrigation rules for parallel "reservoir-pumping station" system under the background of climate change Cong Wei, Yi Gong, Wenpeng Zhao, Zhicheng Zhong This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8453167/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Against the backdrop of continuously intensifying global climate change, extreme hydro meteorological events occur frequently, posing a severe challenge to irrigation systems that rely on joint scheduling of multiple types of water source projects. This study constructed a risk assessment framework: firstly, an optimized irrigation model considering the water demand characteristics of multiple crops in the irrigation area was constructed for the irrigation system with reservoir groups and pump station groups operating in coordination, and the irrigation rules of the parallel "reservoir-pumping station" system were extracted based on the machine learning model; Secondly, based on the runoff data output from the Global Climate Model (GCM), a multivariate Copula method is used to generate multiple long series runoff samples under future climate scenarios to characterize the impact of climate uncertainty on hydrological processes; Finally, based on the assessment of future climate drought risks, fuzzy set analysis and probability change point analysis are used to comprehensively evaluate the failure risk and probability of irrigation rules under future climate scenarios. The research results indicate that under future climate scenarios, the risk of failure of current irrigation rules significantly increases, manifested in a sustained decline in the economic benefits of irrigation areas. Furthermore, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the dry and wet changes in future climate scenarios and the risk of irrigation rule failure: the drier the climate, the higher the risk of failure, and the earlier the occurrence of failure events. The risk assessment framework constructed in this study not only helps irrigation area managers identify vulnerable links and critical thresholds of irrigation systems in the face of climate change, but also provides theoretical basis and decision support for enhancing the climate adaptation capacity of agricultural infrastructure. Climate change Complex irrigation systems Irrigation rules Risk assessment Full Text Supplementary Files Highlights.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 09 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 27 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8453167","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":578139015,"identity":"9c951c72-a87b-4953-84da-417828033392","order_by":0,"name":"Cong 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Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate change, Complex irrigation systems, Irrigation rules, Risk assessment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8453167/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8453167/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAgainst the backdrop of continuously intensifying global climate change, extreme hydro meteorological events occur frequently, posing a severe challenge to irrigation systems that rely on joint scheduling of multiple types of water source projects. This study constructed a risk assessment framework: firstly, an optimized irrigation model considering the water demand characteristics of multiple crops in the irrigation area was constructed for the irrigation system with reservoir groups and pump station groups operating in coordination, and the irrigation rules of the parallel \"reservoir-pumping station\" system were extracted based on the machine learning model; Secondly, based on the runoff data output from the Global Climate Model (GCM), a multivariate Copula method is used to generate multiple long series runoff samples under future climate scenarios to characterize the impact of climate uncertainty on hydrological processes; Finally, based on the assessment of future climate drought risks, fuzzy set analysis and probability change point analysis are used to comprehensively evaluate the failure risk and probability of irrigation rules under future climate scenarios. The research results indicate that under future climate scenarios, the risk of failure of current irrigation rules significantly increases, manifested in a sustained decline in the economic benefits of irrigation areas. Furthermore, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the dry and wet changes in future climate scenarios and the risk of irrigation rule failure: the drier the climate, the higher the risk of failure, and the earlier the occurrence of failure events. The risk assessment framework constructed in this study not only helps irrigation area managers identify vulnerable links and critical thresholds of irrigation systems in the face of climate change, but also provides theoretical basis and decision support for enhancing the climate adaptation capacity of agricultural infrastructure.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Risk assessment of failure of irrigation rules for parallel \"reservoir-pumping station\" system under the background of climate change","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-23 12:49:13","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8453167/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2026-02-24T00:34:29+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-21T13:03:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"Water Resources Management","date":"2026-01-09T14:44:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-12-27T07:22:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Water Resources Management","date":"2025-12-26T23:27:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"water-resources-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"warm","sideBox":"Learn more about [Water Resources Management](https://www.springer.com/journal/11269)","snPcode":"11269","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11269/3","title":"Water Resources Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a8ec1c67-425c-4d6f-b305-bb05dea7ac52","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 23rd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-23T12:49:14+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-23 12:49:13","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8453167","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8453167","identity":"rs-8453167","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}