Growth and Democracy:a U-shaped Relationship

Growth and Democracy:a U-shaped Relationship | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Growth and Democracy:a U-shaped Relationship Nauro Campos, Marco Frigerio, Fabrizio Coricelli This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4847234/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper contributes to the study of the income-democracy relationship in three ways: it argues that the causal relation is U-shaped, not linear as often stated; it uses night-lights (in addition to official GDP statistics) to address measurement concerns; and it strengthens causal identification by implementing novel advances on differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects. The results show that “intermediate” regimes lead to a 20% decline in economic performance vis-à-vis both democracies and autocracies; and identify political instability as the key channel. Other potential mechanisms (such as education, investment, and inequality) lack empirical support. These findings are robust to a wide range of alternative estimators, specifications, and measures. democracy income growth political development economic development institutions non-linearity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4847234","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":340799030,"identity":"da3fde41-facf-4db5-9e77-1dabed023f8e","order_by":0,"name":"Nauro Campos","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDADfgYGxgNgFg+xWiQbGBhI1GJwgFgt5gzMDz/d3GFjb3wj+cEBhho7BoMzB/BrsWxgM5bOPZOWuO1GGtCiY8kMBmcbCLmHh0E6t+1wgtmNHKDD2A4wGJwn6AUe5t9ALfbGM0Ba/hGnhQ1kC+MGCaAWxrYDRDjsMJuZNcgvM848MziQ2JfMI0nI+wbHmx/fzgWGGH978sMHH77ZyfGdSSDgMmYgZoQ5JYHoiIRrGQWjYBSMglGADQAAJMdDsxn1gfgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nauro","middleName":"","lastName":"Campos","suffix":""},{"id":340799031,"identity":"96016948-87b5-4f54-890b-744099b32a9e","order_by":1,"name":"Marco Frigerio","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Siena","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marco","middleName":"","lastName":"Frigerio","suffix":""},{"id":340799032,"identity":"e953ac44-2fb0-468a-989d-c8bd545c56de","order_by":2,"name":"Fabrizio Coricelli","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Paris School of Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fabrizio","middleName":"","lastName":"Coricelli","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-08-02 09:19:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4847234/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4847234/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":71091271,"identity":"178fc535-0677-4cbd-9f37-173c1d6a9c06","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-11 04:53:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1902775,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PoliticalUJoEG.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4847234/v1_covered_4f3b0d48-316c-4779-ad39-f462e0c13b48.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eGrowth and Democracy:a U-shaped Relationship\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"democracy, income, growth, political development, economic development, institutions, non-linearity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4847234/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4847234/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper contributes to the study of the income-democracy relationship in three ways: it argues that the causal relation is U-shaped, not linear as often stated; it uses night-lights (in addition to official GDP statistics) to address measurement concerns; and it strengthens causal identification by implementing novel advances on differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects. The results show that \u0026ldquo;intermediate\u0026rdquo; regimes lead to a 20% decline in economic performance vis-\u0026agrave;-vis both democracies and autocracies; and identify political instability as the key channel. Other potential mechanisms (such as education, investment, and inequality) lack empirical support. These findings are robust to a wide range of alternative estimators, specifications, and measures.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Growth and Democracy:a U-shaped Relationship","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-30 06:10:03","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4847234/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"48d3e018-50a2-43b7-be6a-4c9abd60ba5a","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 30th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-12-11T04:53:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-30 06:10:03","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4847234","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4847234","identity":"rs-4847234","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}