An Analysis of Outbreak Dynamics and Intervention Effects for COVID-19 Transmission in Europe

As of March 13, 2020, Europe became the center of COVID-19 pandemic. In order to prevent further spread and slow down the increase in confirmed cases and deaths, many countries in European Union have taken some interventions since mid-March. In this study, a metapopulation model was used to model the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe and the effectiveness of these interventions were also estimated. The findings suggested that many countries successfully kept the reproduction number R t less than 1 (e.g., Belgium, Germany, Spain, and France) while other countries exhibited R t greater than 1 (e.g., United Kingdom, Cyprus). Based on the assumed reopen strategy, this study also revealed that a 2-week delay in response predicted approximately 2,000 deaths and 200,000 cases (daily peak value), while a 3-week delay predicted approximately 5,000 deaths and 600,000 cases (daily peak value). Therefore, a quick response upon signs of a re-emerging pandemic in the world is highly imperative to mitigate potential loss of life and to keep transmission of Covid-19 under control.