Long-Term Methane Emissions from Unmanaged Municipal Solid Waste Landfills in Baghdad under Population Growth Scenarios (2025–2100)

Long-Term Methane Emissions from Unmanaged Municipal Solid Waste Landfills in Baghdad under Population Growth Scenarios (2025–2100) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Long-Term Methane Emissions from Unmanaged Municipal Solid Waste Landfills in Baghdad under Population Growth Scenarios (2025–2100) Salah Farhan A Sharif This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9057089/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills represent a major anthropogenic source of methane (CH₄), particularly in developing countries where unmanaged disposal practices remain prevalent. Baghdad, one of the fastest-growing cities in the Middle East, relies predominantly on landfill-based waste management systems with limited methane recovery infrastructure. This study presents a long-term quantitative assessment of methane emissions from unmanaged municipal solid waste landfills in Baghdad under multiple population growth and waste generation scenarios extending to the year 2100. Population projections were developed using exponential growth rates (2.5% and 3%), and per capita waste generation rates ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 kg/person/day were considered. Methane emissions were estimated using the IPCC 2006 default methodology for unmanaged landfill conditions, with emissions converted to CO₂-equivalent using a 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) of 28. Results indicate that cumulative methane emissions by 2100 may range from approximately 44 to 85 million tons of CH₄ depending on scenario assumptions. Under a moderate growth scenario (2.5% population growth and 1.25 kg/person/day), cumulative emissions are projected to reach approximately 55.7 million tons of CH₄, corresponding to nearly 1.56 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent. This magnitude is equivalent to roughly eight years of Iraq’s 2022 fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. Waste diversion strategies could significantly mitigate emissions, with a 30% landfill reduction avoiding approximately 0.47 gigatons CO₂-equivalent and a 50% reduction preventing nearly 0.8 gigatons by 2100. The findings highlight that landfill methane may represent a substantial yet under-addressed component of Iraq’s long-term climate mitigation challenge. Integrating waste sector reforms into national climate strategies could provide a meaningful pathway to support commitments under the Paris Agreement while delivering additional environmental co-benefits. Climate mitigation Landfill methane Methane emissions Municipal solid waste Nationally Determined Contributions Urban sustainability Waste diversion Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 15 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 25 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 25 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 07 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9057089","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":621598199,"identity":"28a5d8d3-1371-4184-9448-9b4258821ff0","order_by":0,"name":"Salah Farhan A Sharif","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Al-Kitab University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Salah","middleName":"Farhan A","lastName":"Sharif","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-07 09:09:07","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9057089/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9057089/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106803463,"identity":"b510b18b-c27e-4085-abac-e2337fafd6d1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-13 14:58:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":468906,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LongTermMethaneEmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9057089/v1_covered_e70b3a20-4237-4c8e-8291-fa3412ded713.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Long-Term Methane Emissions from Unmanaged Municipal Solid Waste Landfills in Baghdad under Population Growth Scenarios (2025–2100)","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emas","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Monitoring and Assessment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10661)","snPcode":"10661","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10661/3","title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate mitigation, Landfill methane, Methane emissions, Municipal solid waste, Nationally Determined Contributions, Urban sustainability, Waste diversion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9057089/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9057089/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMunicipal solid waste (MSW) landfills represent a major anthropogenic source of methane (CH₄), particularly in developing countries where unmanaged disposal practices remain prevalent. Baghdad, one of the fastest-growing cities in the Middle East, relies predominantly on landfill-based waste management systems with limited methane recovery infrastructure. This study presents a long-term quantitative assessment of methane emissions from unmanaged municipal solid waste landfills in Baghdad under multiple population growth and waste generation scenarios extending to the year 2100.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePopulation projections were developed using exponential growth rates (2.5% and 3%), and per capita waste generation rates ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 kg/person/day were considered. Methane emissions were estimated using the IPCC \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e default methodology for unmanaged landfill conditions, with emissions converted to CO₂-equivalent using a 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) of 28.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eResults indicate that cumulative methane emissions by 2100 may range from approximately 44 to 85\u0026nbsp;million tons of CH₄ depending on scenario assumptions. Under a moderate growth scenario (2.5% population growth and 1.25 kg/person/day), cumulative emissions are projected to reach approximately 55.7\u0026nbsp;million tons of CH₄, corresponding to nearly 1.56 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent. This magnitude is equivalent to roughly eight years of Iraq\u0026rsquo;s 2022 fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. Waste diversion strategies could significantly mitigate emissions, with a 30% landfill reduction avoiding approximately 0.47 gigatons CO₂-equivalent and a 50% reduction preventing nearly 0.8 gigatons by 2100.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings highlight that landfill methane may represent a substantial yet under-addressed component of Iraq\u0026rsquo;s long-term climate mitigation challenge. Integrating waste sector reforms into national climate strategies could provide a meaningful pathway to support commitments under the Paris Agreement while delivering additional environmental co-benefits.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Long-Term Methane Emissions from Unmanaged Municipal Solid Waste Landfills in Baghdad under Population Growth Scenarios (2025–2100)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-13 14:57:38","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9057089/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"203878642413577293914526455042596065515","date":"2026-05-15T11:22:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"8348699864949407546681263065804385926","date":"2026-05-09T20:16:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"127368171747496238642662655343260683132","date":"2026-04-07T06:57:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-07T03:46:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-25T07:40:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-25T07:40:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","date":"2026-03-07T09:01:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emas","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Monitoring and Assessment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10661)","snPcode":"10661","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10661/3","title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3f8a0ffe-06a6-45b9-83dc-c70307ecaf66","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 13th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"203878642413577293914526455042596065515","date":"2026-05-15T11:22:01+00:00","index":54,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"8348699864949407546681263065804385926","date":"2026-05-09T20:16:42+00:00","index":50,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-13T14:57:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-13 14:57:38","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9057089","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9057089","identity":"rs-9057089","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}