Identifying Cultivation Hotspots of Aquilegia fragrans Benth.-an Endangered Medicinally Important Plant via Ensemble Modelling under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change is one of the main drivers for species redistribution and biodiversity loss, especially for endemic and medicinally important plant species with a restricted distributional range. For that reason, it is vital to comprehend "how" and "where" priority medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) might be effectively used to address conservation-related issues under rapid climate change. In the current study, we used an ensemble modelling approach to investigate the present and future potential distribution coupled with the range dynamics of the Aquilegia fragrans –a medicinally important endangered plant species in the entire spectrum of the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. The findings of the current study revealed that, under current climatic conditions, the northwest states of India (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and the northern part of Uttarakhand); the eastern and southern parts of Pakistan Himalaya have highly suitable and optimal climatic conditions for the growth of A. fragrans. The ensemble model exhibited high forecast accuracy, with temperature seasonality (BIO4) and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) as the main climatic variables responsible for the distribution in the biodiversity hotspot. Furthermore, the study predicted that future climate change scenarios will diminish habitat suitability for the species by -46.922% under RCP4.5 2050 and − 55.052% under RCP4.5 2070. Likewise, under RCP8.5 the habitat suitability will decrease by -51.760% in 2050 and-94.351% in 2070. The current study also revealed that the western Himalayan area will show the most habitat loss. Some regions that are currently unsuitable such as the northern Himalayan regions of Pakistan will become more suitable under climate change scenarios. Hopefully, the current approach will provide a robust technique and showcases a model with learnings for predicting cultivation hotspots and devising scientifically sound conservation plans for this endangered medicinal plant in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot.