Mitigating Future Respiratory Pandemics in Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries: A Modelling Study of Health, Economic and Educational Losses

Mitigating Future Respiratory Pandemics in Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries: A Modelling Study of Health, Economic and Educational Losses | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Mitigating Future Respiratory Pandemics in Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries: A Modelling Study of Health, Economic and Educational Losses Patrick Doohan, Rob Johnson, Alessandra Løchen, Christian Morgenstern, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9418446/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract There is scant evidence on the broader societal losses of pandemics, though this is crucial for evaluating mitigation strategies and quantifying benefits of pandemic preparedness investments. We project the socioeconomic loss of respiratory pandemics, the sum of health, economic and educational losses, under four reactive business and school-closure strategies, six hypothetical diseases and three country-income groups using epidemiological economic modelling. The socioeconomic loss varies considerably between pandemics, with means ranging (as % of annual GDP) from 2.9% to 439.5%, 2.3% to 359.4% and 1.9% to 288.4% in low-/lower-middle-, upper-middle and high-income countries respectively. Stringent closure strategies are more likely to minimise losses for severe diseases, high-income countries and higher life-year valuations. Strategies with reactive school and business closures usually outperform those with long-term school closures, but the latter may be preferable under fiscal/political constraints. These findings provide decision-makers with crucial evidence to better prepare for and respond to future pandemics. Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases Humanities/Health humanities Social science/Economics Full Text Additional Declarations Yes there is potential Competing Interest. PD and RJ declare receipt of personal fees from WHO for consultancies on integrated epidemiological-economic modelling and pandemic vulnerabilities, respectively. GF declares receipt of personal fees from WHO and Imperial College London for consultancies. KDH declares receipt of personal fees from WHO, Pfizer and GSK for work unrelated to this study, payments for expert testimony from Infected Blood Inquiry (UK) and stocks from Astra Zeneca. Supplementary Files MitigatingFutureRespiratoryPandemicsSI.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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