Effects of Ambient Temperature and Fall Related Injuries in Ma'anshan, Anhui Province, China: A Distributed Lag Non-linear Analysis

Abstract Despite the significant economic cost of falls and injuries to individuals and communities, little is known about the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of fall-related injuries (FRIs). Therefore, a time-series study was conducted to explore the effects of meteorological factors on FRIs in Ma'anshan City, East China. Injury data from 2011 to 2017 were collected from the National Injury Monitoring Station in Ma'anshan City. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Meteorological Information Center. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used in this study to evaluate the correlation between ambient temperature and fall injuries. The results showed a significant exposure-response relationship between temperature and FRIs in Ma'anshan City. There was an asymmetric U-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and injuries, if the lowest risk temperature (4°C) was used as the reference temperature. The high temperatures increases the risk of FRIs (RR = 1.110, 95%CI:1.005–1.225). Sensitivity to ambient temperature varied by different ages and genders, and the ≥ 60 years subgroup seemed to be more sensitive in low temperature (RR = 1.071, 95༅CI:1.024–1.120). The cumulative result is similar to the single-day effect. This study would help the establishment of fall-related injury prediction and provide evidence for the formulation and implementation of preventive strategies and measures in the future.