Building retrofits and urban climate feedback trigger heating energy rebounds and inequity

Building retrofits and urban climate feedback trigger heating energy rebounds and inequity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Building retrofits and urban climate feedback trigger heating energy rebounds and inequity Zhiwen Luo, Yiqing Liu, Sue Grimmond This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7851015/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Building retrofits are critical for decarbonizing heating globally, yet their unintended consequences for local climates and energy equity remain poorly quantified. We reveal that by reducing waste heat emissions, retrofits can intensify wintertime outdoor cooling, triggering heating energy rebounds in retrofitted homes and imposing significant penalties on adjacent non-retrofitted buildings. Using a coupled urban climate and building energy model across diverse US neighbourhoods and climates, we demonstrate that retrofits lead to nocturnal cooling exceeding 2 °C in medium/high-density areas with low wind (e.g., Denver, Albuquerque). This offsets up to 4% (3.1 kWh m⁻²) of expected retrofit savings and increases heating demand for nearby non-retrofitted homes by up to 12% (11.6 kWh m⁻²). Conversely, stronger atmospheric mixing in windy or low-density neighbourhoods minimizes cooling, reducing rebounds and penalties, and can yield net energy benefits. Our findings necessitate integrating neighbourhood-scale climate feedback into retrofit planning to ensure equitable and sustained energy reductions. Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy conservation Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Physical sciences/Engineering/Mechanical engineering Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files LiuetalbuildingretrofitSIfinal.pdf Supplementary Information: Building retrofits and urban climate feedback trigger heating energy rebounds and inequity Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7851015","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":529897465,"identity":"728a43ac-bc84-4b9f-8149-6a8328e72a18","order_by":0,"name":"Zhiwen Luo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA00lEQVRIie3RPQrCMBTA8VcKdQl27WSukNLVj6u8EujkILh0LAh1dC14CUsvEMga6gG66OJcN0cb6+SQZnTIf8ibfiSPALhcf9hcH5gv9WBinOAbSaCPm8pGMk4L4t1L+SFgRyIue1RXGp5lLQQCDQuSMDPJkGHexVWb7TSJK0ESNJMtQ1QdgiJMPl/gXYAkYoqItGyRDkTfsrEhcZGWAtmXpJqYH0YeHFDxuFaB3iXilQz2xvXDGR82yNd0ofymF7hcnY6HJjKR36KpX3G5XC6XTW/ed0rEjazaSgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2082-3958","institution":"Cardiff University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhiwen","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":529897466,"identity":"0c71246a-f35d-4c59-ba6b-5460ac296e6d","order_by":1,"name":"Yiqing Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yiqing","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":529897467,"identity":"34a259a7-c026-47a1-a380-853fd0e23a8f","order_by":2,"name":"Sue Grimmond","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Reading","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sue","middleName":"","lastName":"Grimmond","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-13 16:28:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7851015/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7851015/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":95526263,"identity":"dc872863-7f3e-46ff-aafa-1ebe2d555ba2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-10 10:06:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1363754,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Liuetalbuildingretrofitfinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7851015/v1_covered_3242bb41-0aeb-4185-bb0a-5933976c9885.pdf"},{"id":93652638,"identity":"7bbad37c-1121-4b89-8251-75657e5b8f6d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-16 06:15:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3570038,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information: Building retrofits and urban climate feedback trigger heating energy rebounds and inequity","description":"","filename":"LiuetalbuildingretrofitSIfinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7851015/v1/e0340ec46eb0d3f924789acb.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Building retrofits and urban climate feedback trigger heating energy rebounds and inequity","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7851015/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7851015/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Building retrofits are critical for decarbonizing heating globally, yet their unintended consequences for local climates and energy equity remain poorly quantified. 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