A Dynamical Modelling of the Epidemic Diseases to Assessing the Rates of Spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: SEIQR Model

Abstract A model of critical epidemic dynamics for the emergence of the new coronavirus COVID-19 is being established in this paper. A new approach to the assessment and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is given with the SEIQR pandemic model. This paper uses real knowledge on the distribution of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia for mathematical modeling and dynamic analyses. The reproductive number and detailed stability analysis are provided in the SEIQR model dynamics. In a Jacobian method of linearization, we will address the domain of the solution and the equilibrium situation based on the SEIQR model. The equilibrium and its importance have been proven, and a study of the stability of the equilibrium free from diseases has been implemented. The reproduction number was evaluated in accordance with its internal parameters. The Lyapunov theorem of stability has proven the global stability of the current model's equilibrium. The SEIQR model was contrasted by comparing the results based on the SEIQR model with the real COVID-19 spread data in Saudi Arabia. Numerical evaluation and predictions were given. The results indicate that the SEIQR model is a strong model for the study of the spread of epidemics, such as COVID-19. At the end of this work, we implemented an optimum protocol that can quickly stop the spread of COVID-19 among the Saudi populations. The key solution to slowing COVID-19 transmission is to stay home and bring sick persons as far as possible in a remote location or in a safe place. Ultimately, it is vital to offer safe and adequate treatment to ill people, and to avoid them, medications, tones, and nutrients should be provided to non-infected persons.