Bridging History with AI: A Comparative Evaluation of GPT- 3.5, GPT-4, and Google-BARD in Predictive Accuracy and Fact- Checking

The rapid proliferation of information in the digital era underscores the importance of accurate historical representation and interpretation. While artificial intelligence (AI) has shown promise in various fields, its potential for historical fact-checking and gap-filling remains largely untapped. This study evaluates the performance of three large language models (LLMs)—GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Google- BARD—in the context of predicting and verifying historical events based on given data. A novel metric, "Distance to Reality" (DTR), is introduced to assess the models' outputs against established historical facts. The results reveal a substantial potential for AI in historical studies, with GPT-4 demonstrating superior performance. This paper underscores the need for further research into AI's role in enriching our understanding of the past and bridging historical knowledge gaps.