Analysis of the correlation between climatic variables and Dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas/BA

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This study analyzed climatic variables and dengue cases in Alagoinhas, Brazil, finding that relative humidity moderately correlated with dengue incidence, while temperature and precipitation showed low correlations.

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The paper studies how climatic variables—air temperature, relative humidity, and weekly average precipitation—correlate with reported dengue cases in Alagoinhas, Bahia, Brazil, using a 2017 to early 2021 time period. The authors apply a trend-free cross-correlation approach (ρDCCA) to assess how fluctuations in these environmental variables relate to dengue incidence over time. They find a moderate correlation between relative humidity and dengue incidence, with low correlations for air temperature and precipitation, concluding that humidity predominates for dengue occurrence in this locality. A major caveat is that the work focuses on statistical correlation from time-series data rather than demonstrating causation. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector of dengue and is an extremely synanthropic insect and due to its anthropophilic nature, it has specific reproductive needs. In addition to that, it also needs tropical regions that provide climate-prone conditions that favor vector development. In this article, we propose the cross-correlation analysis between the climatic variables air temperature, relative humidity, weekly average precipitation and dengue cases in the period from 2017 to early 2021 in the municipality of Alagoinhas, Bahia, Brazil. To do so, we apply the trend-free cross-correlation, $\rho DCCA$, being a generalization of the fluctuation analysis without trend, where we calculate the cross correlation between time series to establish the influence of these variables on the occurrence of dengue disease. The results obtained here were a moderate correlation between relative humidity and the incidence of dengue cases, and a low correlation for relative air temperature and precipitation. However, the predominant factor in the incidence of dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas is relative humidity and not air temperature and precipitation.
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Analysis of the correlation between climatic variables and Dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas/BA | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Analysis of the correlation between climatic variables and Dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas/BA Figuredo Marcos Batista, Monteiro Roberto Luiz Souza, Silva Alexandre Nascimento, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2475586/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 May, 2023 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector of dengue and is an extremely synanthropic insect and due to its anthropophilic nature, it has specific reproductive needs. In addition to that, it also needs tropical regions that provide climate-prone conditions that favor vector development. In this article, we propose the cross-correlation analysis between the climatic variables air temperature, relative humidity, weekly average precipitation and dengue cases in the period from 2017 to early 2021 in the municipality of Alagoinhas, Bahia, Brazil. To do so, we apply the trend-free cross-correlation, $\rho DCCA$, being a generalization of the fluctuation analysis without trend, where we calculate the cross correlation between time series to establish the influence of these variables on the occurrence of dengue disease. The results obtained here were a moderate correlation between relative humidity and the incidence of dengue cases, and a low correlation for relative air temperature and precipitation. However, the predominant factor in the incidence of dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas is relative humidity and not air temperature and precipitation. Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Applied mathematics Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics/Data processing Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 May, 2023 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revision 09 Apr, 2023 Reviews received at journal 06 Apr, 2023 Reviews received at journal 27 Feb, 2023 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Feb, 2023 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Feb, 2023 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Feb, 2023 Editor assigned by journal 15 Feb, 2023 Editor invited by journal 23 Jan, 2023 Submission checks completed at journal 23 Jan, 2023 First submitted to journal 13 Jan, 2023 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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