Time Series Analysis of Sustainable Debt and Economic Growth in Ethiopia

Time Series Analysis of Sustainable Debt and Economic Growth in Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Time Series Analysis of Sustainable Debt and Economic Growth in Ethiopia Temesgen Furi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6946779/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the dynamic relationship between sustainable debt and economic growth in Ethiopia over the period 1992–2022. Utilizing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen cointegration approach, and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research explores both short-run and long-run effects of key macroeconomic variables, including GDP, tax revenue, government expenditure, exchange rate, total debt, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The results reveal strong GDP persistence, indicating that past economic performance significantly influences current growth. A higher debt-to-GDP ratio is found to negatively affect growth, underscoring the importance of prudent debt management. The debt-to-revenue ratio and tax revenue exhibit short-term contractionary effects but contribute positively to growth in the long run, reflecting the delayed benefits of fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization. Government policy changes and the COVID-19 pandemic had significant lagged negative impacts, highlighting the economic costs of structural adjustments and global shocks. These findings align with existing literature on fiscal sustainability and provide critical insights for policymakers aiming to balance debt management with growth objectives. The study concludes that sustainable debt practices, supported by effective fiscal policy, are essential for Ethiopia’s long-term economic development and resilience. Sustainable Debt sustainability economic growth VE Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 INTRODUCTION Fiscal sustainability refers to the ability of a government to maintain its current spending, tax policies, and other financial commitments over the long term without jeopardizing its solvency or defaulting on its liabilities or promised expenditures (GORIE & NICOLA, 2023). Sustainable Debt is the instrument by which a government regulates its level of spending to control and affect a nation’s economy. Sustainable Debt does not only achieve economic development but also eliminate the hindrances that assist economic stability. According to (Marín-Rodríguez et al., 2023), the cumulative impact on the budget outcome of the economic activity is related to Sustainable Debt. According to (Akin & Gunes, 2022) Sustainable Debt is a long-term problem of a country’s Sustainable Debt, while finance ability is the short-term financing problem of that long-term fiscal problem. The World Bank Group and the IMF work with low-income countries to produce regular Debt Sustainability Analyses, which are structured examinations of developing country debt based on the Debt Sustainability Framework. The intricate relationship between government debt, fiscal policy, and economic growth is a subject of extensive debate in economic literature. Classical and monetarist schools of thought, for instance, posit that while increased government spending may stimulate aggregate demand, it simultaneously drives up interest rates. This, in turn, can lead to the "crowding out" of private investment, ultimately having a negligible impact on the overall output level (Zulkarnain et al., 2022). Conversely, the interaction between public and private sector resource allocation is crucial, with studies such as Mose (2022) highlighting a significant positive impact of both private investment and capital on income per capita. Empirical time series evidence further explores the dynamic effects of sustainable debt on macroeconomic indicators (Al-Masaeed & Tsaregorodtsev, 2018). This research often points to the exchange rate as a key channel through which debt impacts economic growth, noting that the effects of expansionary debt policies can take a considerable time to materialize. Beyond overall debt, the components of fiscal policy also show varied impacts. Tax revenues are generally found to have a positive influence on economic growth, while the impact of a fiscal deficit on growth outcomes can be modest (Emuebie et al., 2021). Furthermore, government spending's effect on economic growth may exhibit asymmetric patterns, as demonstrated by Emuebie et al. (2021) in their study on Nigeria. The broader context of international finance also plays a role, as nations' demand for foreign currencies is driven by various factors, including international transactions, balance of payments requirements, imports of goods and services, foreign travel expenditures, and speculative gains from currency appreciation (LIBARGACHEW, 2019; Jain et al., 2023). The concept of sustainable debt is often operationalized through various thresholds and benchmarks for public and external debt burdens. Key indicators include the present value (PV) of external debt-to-exports ratio (typically 240%), PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio (55%), external debt service-to-exports ratio (21%), external debt service-to-revenue ratio (23%), and PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio (70%). Specifically, a PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio of up to 35%, 55%, and 70% typically categorizes debt as weak, medium, and strong sustainable debt, respectively. Building upon this existing literature, the present study aims to investigate the relationship between sustainable debt and economic growth in Ethiopia. For this analysis, variables are classified as dependent and independent. Consistent with previous research (Antwi et al., 2021; Sadiq et al., 2023; Islam et al., 2023), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita will serve as the proxy measure for economic growth, representing the dependent variable. The primary independent variable of interest is government spending, which is hypothesized to have a variable impact on economic growth, potentially positive or negative, though often leaning towards a positive influence (Nyasha & Odhiambo, 2019). According to(Republic et al., nd.) Exchange rate negatively related to economic growth while FDI have positive effect on economic growth as (Muse & Mohd, 2021). Output (Y) depends on the variable like tax revenue (TR), government expenditure(GE), exchange rate(EX) and Debt (DBT) and Foreign Direct Investment(FDI), are the Sustainable Debt variables employed in this study. Whereas: GE t =Government expenditure at the time DBT=Debt at the time TR t =Tax Revenue at the time. FDI t =Foreign Direct Investment at the time EX t =Exchange rate at the time The model in its econometric linear form can be written as: ((Haidari & Junejo, 2024). Results and Discussion Table 1.1. Descriptive analysis of the data CA_DEF DEBT/REV DEBT/Export DSER_EXPOR FINANCING %EXPORTS PUBL/DEBT Mean 5.292749 36.73724 16.35342 18.60586 2467.173 87.71768 46.67003 Median 4.849325 36.30454 16.31385 18.60829 2360.267 82.61100 46.89065 Maximum 6.771623 40.28332 18.59519 20.89904 3504.114 114.9012 50.95918 Minimum 4.241052 33.78881 14.73052 16.84230 1337.035 71.18962 41.76993 Std. Dev. 1.051676 2.418524 1.281470 1.327211 742.7006 16.24763 3.378294 Skewness 0.565423 0.222481 0.509930 0.432993 0.043149 0.654435 -0.226757 Kurtosis 1.648566 1.670509 2.479111 2.481645 2.078171 2.041151 1.697351 Jarque-B 0.905680 0.573282 4.325 0.297098 0.250021 0.767821 0.554916 Probab 0.635820 0.750781 0.825925 0.861958 0.882488 0.681192 0.757707 Sum 37.04924 257.1607 114.4739 130.2410 17270.21 614.0238 326.6902 Sq. Dev. 6.636132 35.09555 9.852990 10.56894 3309625. 1583.913 68.47724 Source: Researchers’ own computation (Eview 10) Table 1.1 above presents Table 1.1 provides a descriptive statistical summary of several economic indicators. Most variables exhibit moderate variability, with FINANCING showing the highest dispersion (Std. Dev. = 742.70). To assess debt distress, we compare Ethiopia's mean values for the relevant indicators against the established sustainability thresholds. PV External Debt-to-Exports Ratio: Ethiopia's average external debt-to-exports ratio (36.74%) is significantly well below the 240% threshold. This indicates a very strong capacity to service external debt through export earnings. Ethiopia's average external debt service-to-exports ratio (18.61%) is below the 21% threshold. This suggests that the cost of servicing external debt is manageable relative to export revenues. Ethiopia's Mean (PUBL/DEBT): 46.67003% (Assuming PUBL/DEBT represents the PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio). Ethiopia's average public debt-to-GDP ratio (46.67%) is below the 70% threshold. This indicates that the overall public debt burden relative to the size of the economy is within a sustainable range by this benchmark. With a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 46.67%, Ethiopia falls into the medium sustainable debt category (between 35% and 55%). Ethiopia's average external debt-to-exports and external debt service-to-exports ratios are comfortably within sustainable limits, indicating a low risk of distress from these perspectives. The average total public debt-to-GDP ratio places Ethiopia in the medium sustainable debt category, suggesting that while not in the "strong" category, its public debt burden is currently manageable and not indicative of high distress. GDP (Gross Domestic Product): A growing GDP typically indicates economic health, which can help reduce the risk of debt distress. Higher GDP means more capacity to generate revenue and service debt. TR (Total Revenue): Increased government revenue makes it easier to meet debt obligations. If revenue fails to keep up with borrowing, it can lead to debt stress. GE (Government Expenditure): While stable government spending can support consistent public services, excessive or poorly managed spending relative to revenue can worsen debt burdens. EX (Exports): Declining exports reduce foreign exchange earnings, making it harder to pay off external debt, especially if the country relies on exports to generate hard currency. DBT (Debt): A sharp rise in debt, especially without proportional increases in GDP or revenue, is a direct driver of debt distress. Your data indicates a spike after 2015, which could be a red flag. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment): Falling FDI reduces capital inflows, potentially weakening economic growth and eroding confidence in debt sustainability. The above graph 1.2. Described the distribution of data around a zero line to indicate the stationary of the variables. Fig 1.3 shows all debt sustainability variables decrease as year increase . Post-Estimation Diagnostic Tests for ARDL Model Suitability After estimating the ARDL model, a series of diagnostic tests were carried out on the residuals to ensure that the underlying assumptions of the model were satisfied. These tests helped validate the model’s appropriateness and its reliability in making long-run inferences. Normality Test of Residuals: The Jarque-Bera (JB) test was applied to examine whether the residuals followed a normal distribution. While normality is not a strict requirement for OLS estimators to remain unbiased and consistent, it is crucial for valid hypothesis testing in small samples. The test results showed that the residuals were normally distributed, supporting the robustness of the model’s statistical inference. ARDL-Specific Cointegration Test (Bounds Test): To determine the existence of a long-run relationship among variables, the ARDL Bounds Test was conducted. Preliminary unit root tests revealed that the variables were integrated of different orders—some I(0) and others I(1)—but none were I(2), fulfilling the core requirement for ARDL application. The Bounds Test confirmed the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship, thereby validating the model’s applicability for long-term analysis. Table 1.2 ARDL Model Regression result Dependent Variable: GDP , Maximum dependent lags: 1 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC), Dynamic regressors (2 lags, automatic): Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. GDP(-1) 1.032948 0.133765 7.722113 0.0000 DEBT_GDP -6.00E-06 2.12E-06 -2.835272 0.0162 DEBT_REV 0.005346 0.005419 0.986540 0.3451 DEBT_REV(-1) -0.019941 0.006319 -3.155596 0.0092 DEBT_REV(-2) 34.70326 13.93177 2.490945 0.0300 DEBT_SERV -0.119886 0.448475 -0.267321 0.7942 FDI 4.73E-08 9.96E-07 0.047493 0.9630 FDI(-1) 1.09E-06 9.55E-07 1.143766 0.2770 GOVT_POLICY -14.46279 35.22003 -0.410641 0.6892 GOVT_POLICY(-1) -113.4147 48.27951 -2.349128 0.0385 GOVT_POLICY(-2) -94.91061 45.12481 -2.103291 0.0593 YEAR_DUMMY 72.16246 45.21965 1.595821 0.1388 YEAR_DUMMY(-1) -148.6868 43.19062 -3.442572 0.0055 YEAR_DUMMY(-2) -67.16798 41.54670 -1.616686 0.1342 REVENEU 1.63E-09 1.80E-09 0.906582 0.3841 REVENEU(-1) -6.32E-09 2.18E-09 -2.894256 0.0146 REVENEU(-2) 7.42E-09 1.65E-09 4.497299 0.0009 C 17.71018 64.16869 0.275994 0.7877 R-squared 0.999619 Mean dependent var 1128.519 Adjusted R-squared 0.999030 S.D. dependent var 753.0659 S.E. of regression 23.45851 Akaike info criterion 9.420323 Sum squared resid 6053.320 Schwarz criterion 10.26899 Log likelihood -118.5947 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.686114 F-statistic 1696.714 Durbin-Watson stat 2.000751 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model selection. Table 1.2 shows EViews result of ARDL model investigates the dynamic impact of various factors, particularly debt sustainability indicators, on Ethiopia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).. Lag Structure: The selected ARDL(1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2) model indicates: Current GDP is influenced by its previous period's value (1 lag). Lagged GDP (GDP(-1)) The coefficient is positive and highly significant (p = 0.0000), indicating strong persistence in economic growth. It implies Ethiopia's economic growth exhibits strong persistence; past GDP levels have a substantial influence on current GDP, indicating momentum in the economy. Debt-to-GDP Ratio: A higher debt-to-GDP ratio negatively influences Ethiopia's growth at (p = 0.0162). This suggests that rising debt burdens, relative to the size of the economy, constrain economic growth, consistent with findings from other Sub-Saharan African countries where excessive debt can crowd out productive investment and create macroeconomic instability. Debt-to-Revenue Ratio: Short-Run (Lag 1): Negative and significant (p = 0.0092). Long-Run (Lag 2): Positive and significant (p = 0.0300). This variable reflects the debt overhang hypothesis. In the short run, higher debt relative to revenue negatively affects growth, potentially due to discouragement of investment. However, in the longer run, if managed well, it can support growth, possibly reflecting delayed fiscal stimulus effects or debt-financed investments that take time to yield returns. Government Policy Change or Transformation: Effect (Lagged): Negative and significant (p = 0.0385) implies past government policy actions, likely related to fiscal or debt management, had a contractionary effect on growth. This aligns with research on Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) where ineffective or poorly timed fiscal policies often worsened debt sustainability and slowed growth. Revenue and Growth (Delayed Positive Impact): Short-Run (Lag 1): Negative and significant (p = 0.0146) while Long-Run (Lag 2): Positive and highly significant (p = 0.0009) these indicate while a sudden increase in revenue collection (e.g., through taxation) might have a short-term dampening effect on growth, revenue mobilization significantly supports growth in the longer term. This is consistent with studies showing that aggressive short-term tax hikes can suppress economic activity initially, but efficient domestic resource mobilization supports long-term growth. 6. Year Dummy (Covid-19) (-1):The first lag of the Covid-19 dummy captures structural or policy shocks during the pandemic period that adversely affected Ethiopia's economic growth. In general, The ARDL model results for Ethiopia highlight that economic growth exhibits strong persistence. While high debt-to-GDP ratios are detrimental, the impact of the debt-to-revenue ratio is nuanced, showing short-term negative but long-term positive effects, suggesting the importance of effective debt management. Government policy changes can have contractionary effects, and revenue mobilization, though potentially dampening growth initially, is crucial for long-term support. The COVID-19 pandemic also exerted a significant negative impact. These findings largely resonate with broader trends observed in other developing economies, underscoring the importance of balanced debt management, strategic fiscal policy, and long-term investment planning for sustainable economic growth in Ethiopia. Therefore, government advised to: The negative impact of the debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenue ratios on growth highlights the need for prudent borrowing strategies. Debt should be directed toward productive investments with clear growth returns, such as infrastructure, education, and health. Strengthen Domestic Revenue Mobilization Since revenue has a delayed positive effect on growth, the government should focus on broadening the tax base, improving tax compliance, and reducing dependency on external borrowing. Since past government policy review and reform negatively affect growth, emphasis should be placed on transparency, efficiency, and accountability in public spending. The mixed effects of revenue and debt variables across different lags imply that timing matters. The government should consider the short-term trade-offs and long-term benefits of fiscal decisions. Ethiopia advised to invest in diversifying its economy, improving institutional capacity, and building buffers to withstand external and internal disruptions. Declarations I confirm that I understand Discover Sustainability is an open access journal that levies an article processing charge per articles accepted for publication. By submitting my article, I agree to pay this charge in full if my article is accepted for publication. I want to apply for an APC discount or waiver. I understand the corresponding author will be asked to provide evidence to support their request, including details of any funding to date (this does not apply to authors covered by our policies for low- and lower-middle income countries). Funding Declaration This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The study was conducted for academic purposes as part of the authors' independent research. Ethics Declaration The authors affirm that the research presented in this manuscript is original and has been conducted in accordance with ethical standards. This study utilized publicly available time-series data from official sources such as the National Bank of Ethiopia, Ministry of Finance, and World Bank databases. No human participants or animals were involved in this research, and therefore, ethical approval was not required. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest related to the publication of this manuscript. All sources have been properly acknowledged and referenced. The study is the result of the authors’ own analysis and does not represent the views of any institution or funding body. This manuscript has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration by another journal. The authors have agreed to submit it for peer-reviewed publication and are committed to ensuring the integrity and transparency of the research process. Consent to Participate Declaration: Not applicable. This study did not involve human participants. Consent to Publish Declaration” Not applicable. This study did not involve human participants or identifiable data requiring consent for publication. Clinical Trial Registration: Clinical trial number: Not applicable. This study is a time-series analysis of publicly available economic data and is not a clinical trial. Data Availability Statement: All data utilized in this study are publicly available from official sources, specifically the National Bank of Ethiopia, Ministry of Finance, and World Bank databases. Specific datasets and their access links, if applicable, are provided in the methodology section and references. References Akin T, Gunes S. (2022). Sustainability of External Debt: Panel Cointegration Analysis of The Fragile Five. Journal Of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics And Administrative Sciences Faculty . Al-Masaeed AA, Tsaregorodtsev E. The impact of Sustainable Debt on the economic growth of Jordan. Int J Econ Finance. 2018;10(10):145. Antwi S, Boateng PY, Salley A. Τhe effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Ghana: the role of exchange rate volatility. Bull Appl Econ. 2021;8(1):81. Bhatt S. Entrepreneurial Activity at the State Level. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6946779","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":492927230,"identity":"b7bd10e8-6b98-4d3b-9c11-9a4f62e23f24","order_by":0,"name":"Temesgen Furi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCCgYGORB94AExqnlAxBkGBmOwlgRStCQ2gBhEabFn7058cLDtXvr8sMMPgbbYyek2ELKF5+xmg4Ntxbkbb6cZALUkG5sdIKRFIneb9Me2hNyNsxNAWg4kbiOoRf7t9h8H2xLSDWenfyBSiwTvNgaglgR56RxibTmTu1niwLkEww3SOQUHEgyI8At7+9mNHw6UJcjLz07f/OFDhZ0cQS1wYABWaUCschCQbyBF9SgYBaNgFIwoAAAHyEib+26h9gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Wollega University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Temesgen","middleName":"","lastName":"Furi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-21 20:53:02","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6946779/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6946779/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88038088,"identity":"6f22e7d7-529f-4fc6-98d7-df0a2ce91dd9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-31 16:36:02","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":62418,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLegend not included with this version.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6946779/v1/f137630c72115394d07a148c.jpg"},{"id":88039122,"identity":"8f5db3c9-5cb8-49ca-b551-d77ecca90f5a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-31 16:44:02","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":78775,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 1.2 the differenced description of the data stationarity around a zero line\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6946779/v1/576ca17f769cab80a7296bb3.jpg"},{"id":88038089,"identity":"e57a956a-3a25-44e4-a14d-fd858aa246e3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-31 16:36:02","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":71497,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 1.3 Debt sustainability variables\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6946779/v1/943a74c5976962684fdf2899.jpg"},{"id":91178736,"identity":"55f7fa87-3fee-4c4a-afcc-3fabb5ca2ef5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-12 12:26:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":690028,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6946779/v1/cf97ab56-e735-4def-803b-b0b5896fe7f9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Time Series Analysis of Sustainable Debt and Economic Growth in Ethiopia","fulltext":[{"header":"INTRODUCTION","content":"\u003cp\u003eFiscal sustainability refers to the ability of a government to maintain its current spending, tax policies, and other financial commitments over the long term without jeopardizing its solvency or defaulting on its liabilities or promised expenditures (GORIE \u0026amp; NICOLA, 2023). Sustainable Debt is the instrument by which a government regulates its level of spending to control and affect a nation\u0026rsquo;s economy. Sustainable Debt does not only achieve economic development but also eliminate the hindrances that assist economic stability. According to (Mar\u0026iacute;n-Rodr\u0026iacute;guez et al., 2023), the cumulative impact on the budget outcome of the economic activity is related to Sustainable Debt.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to (Akin \u0026amp; Gunes, 2022) Sustainable Debt is a long-term problem of a country\u0026rsquo;s Sustainable Debt, while finance ability is the short-term financing problem of that long-term fiscal problem. The World Bank Group and the IMF work with low-income countries to produce regular Debt Sustainability Analyses, which are structured examinations of developing country debt based on the Debt Sustainability Framework.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe intricate relationship between government debt, fiscal policy, and economic growth is a subject of extensive debate in economic literature. Classical and monetarist schools of thought, for instance, posit that while increased government spending may stimulate aggregate demand, it simultaneously drives up interest rates. This, in turn, can lead to the \u0026quot;crowding out\u0026quot; of private investment, ultimately having a negligible impact on the overall output level (Zulkarnain et al., 2022). Conversely, the interaction between public and private sector resource allocation is crucial, with studies such as Mose (2022) highlighting a significant positive impact of both private investment and capital on income per capita.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEmpirical time series evidence further explores the dynamic effects of sustainable debt on macroeconomic indicators (Al-Masaeed \u0026amp; Tsaregorodtsev, 2018). This research often points to the exchange rate as a key channel through which debt impacts economic growth, noting that the effects of expansionary debt policies can take a considerable time to materialize. Beyond overall debt, the components of fiscal policy also show varied impacts. Tax revenues are generally found to have a positive influence on economic growth, while the impact of a fiscal deficit on growth outcomes can be modest (Emuebie et al., 2021). Furthermore, government spending\u0026apos;s effect on economic growth may exhibit asymmetric patterns, as demonstrated by Emuebie et al. (2021) in their study on Nigeria.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe broader context of international finance also plays a role, as nations\u0026apos; demand for foreign currencies is driven by various factors, including international transactions, balance of payments requirements, imports of goods and services, foreign travel expenditures, and speculative gains from currency appreciation (LIBARGACHEW, 2019; Jain et al., 2023).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe concept of sustainable debt is often operationalized through various thresholds and benchmarks for public and external debt burdens. Key indicators include the present value (PV) of external debt-to-exports ratio (typically 240%), PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio (55%), external debt service-to-exports ratio (21%), external debt service-to-revenue ratio (23%), and PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio (70%). Specifically, a PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio of up to 35%, 55%, and 70% typically categorizes debt as weak, medium, and strong sustainable debt, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBuilding upon this existing literature, the present study aims to investigate the relationship between sustainable debt and economic growth in Ethiopia. For this analysis, variables are classified as dependent and independent. Consistent with previous research (Antwi et al., 2021; Sadiq et al., 2023; Islam et al., 2023), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita will serve as the proxy measure for economic growth, representing the dependent variable.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe primary independent variable of interest is government spending, which is hypothesized to have a variable impact on economic growth, potentially positive or negative, though often leaning towards a positive influence (Nyasha \u0026amp; Odhiambo, 2019). According to(Republic et al., nd.) Exchange rate negatively related to economic growth while FDI \u0026nbsp;have \u0026nbsp; positive \u0026nbsp;effect on economic growth as (Muse \u0026amp; Mohd, 2021).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOutput (Y) depends on the variable like tax revenue (TR), government expenditure(GE), exchange rate(EX) and Debt (DBT) and Foreign Direct Investment(FDI), are \u0026nbsp;the Sustainable Debt variables employed in this study.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhereas: GE\u003csub\u003et\u003c/sub\u003e=Government expenditure at the time \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDBT=Debt at the time\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTR\u003csub\u003et\u003c/sub\u003e=Tax Revenue at the time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFDI\u003csub\u003et\u003c/sub\u003e=Foreign Direct Investment at the time\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEX\u003csub\u003et\u003c/sub\u003e=Exchange rate at the time\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe model in its econometric linear form can be written as:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\" style=\"width: 512px;\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;((Haidari \u0026amp; Junejo, 2024).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003eTable 1.1. Descriptive analysis of the data\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"595\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 36px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 12px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 73px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; CA_DEF\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT/REV\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT/Export\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;DSER_EXPOR\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFINANCING\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e%EXPORTS\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePUBL/DEBT\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Mean\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;5.292749\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;36.73724\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;16.35342\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;18.60586\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2467.173\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;87.71768\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;46.67003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Median\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;4.849325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;36.30454\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;16.31385\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;18.60829\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2360.267\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;82.61100\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;46.89065\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Maximum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;6.771623\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;40.28332\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;18.59519\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;20.89904\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;3504.114\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;114.9012\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;50.95918\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Minimum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;4.241052\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;33.78881\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;14.73052\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;16.84230\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1337.035\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;71.18962\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;41.76993\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Std. Dev.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1.051676\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2.418524\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1.281470\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1.327211\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;742.7006\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;16.24763\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;3.378294\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Skewness\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.565423\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.222481\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.509930\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.432993\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.043149\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.654435\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.226757\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Kurtosis\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1.648566\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1.670509\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2.479111\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2.481645\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2.078171\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;2.041151\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1.697351\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Jarque-B\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.905680\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.573282\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.325\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.297098\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.250021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.767821\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.554916\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Probab\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.635820\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.750781\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.825925\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.861958\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.882488\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.681192\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;0.757707\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Sum\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;37.04924\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;257.1607\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;114.4739\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;130.2410\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;17270.21\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;614.0238\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;326.6902\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Sq. Dev.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;6.636132\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 65px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;35.09555\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 63px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;9.852990\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 105px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;10.56894\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 84px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;3309625.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 97px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;1583.913\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 59px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;68.47724\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 1px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Researchers\u0026rsquo; own computation (Eview 10)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1.1 above presents Table 1.1 provides a descriptive statistical summary of several economic indicators. Most variables exhibit moderate variability, with FINANCING showing the highest dispersion (Std. Dev. = 742.70). To assess debt distress, we compare Ethiopia\u0026apos;s mean values for the relevant indicators against the established sustainability thresholds. PV External Debt-to-Exports Ratio: \u0026nbsp;Ethiopia\u0026apos;s average external debt-to-exports ratio (36.74%) is significantly well below the 240% threshold. This indicates a very strong capacity to service external debt through export earnings. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEthiopia\u0026apos;s average external debt service-to-exports ratio (18.61%) is below the 21% threshold. This suggests that the cost of servicing external debt is manageable relative to export revenues. Ethiopia\u0026apos;s Mean (PUBL/DEBT): 46.67003% (Assuming PUBL/DEBT represents the PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio). Ethiopia\u0026apos;s average public debt-to-GDP ratio (46.67%) is below the 70% threshold. This indicates that the overall public debt burden relative to the size of the economy is within a sustainable range by this benchmark. \u0026nbsp;With a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 46.67%, Ethiopia falls into the medium sustainable debt category (between 35% and 55%). \u0026nbsp;Ethiopia\u0026apos;s average external debt-to-exports and external debt service-to-exports ratios are comfortably within sustainable limits, indicating a low risk of distress from these perspectives. The average total public debt-to-GDP ratio places Ethiopia in the medium sustainable debt category, suggesting that while not in the \u0026quot;strong\u0026quot; category, its public debt burden is currently manageable and not indicative of high distress.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGDP (Gross Domestic Product): A growing GDP typically indicates economic health, which can help reduce the risk of debt distress. Higher GDP means more capacity to generate revenue and service debt.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTR (Total Revenue): Increased government revenue makes it easier to meet debt obligations. If revenue fails to keep up with borrowing, it can lead to debt stress.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGE (Government Expenditure): While stable government spending can support consistent public services, excessive or poorly managed spending relative to revenue can worsen debt burdens.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEX (Exports): Declining exports reduce foreign exchange earnings, making it harder to pay off external debt, especially if the country relies on exports to generate hard currency.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDBT (Debt): A sharp rise in debt, especially without proportional increases in GDP or revenue, is a direct driver of debt distress. Your data indicates a spike after 2015, which could be a red flag.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFDI (Foreign Direct Investment): Falling FDI reduces capital inflows, potentially weakening economic growth and eroding confidence in debt sustainability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe above graph 1.2. Described the distribution of data around a zero line to indicate the stationary of the variables.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFig 1.3 shows all debt sustainability variables decrease as year increase .\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePost-Estimation Diagnostic Tests for ARDL Model Suitability\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter estimating the ARDL model, a series of diagnostic tests were carried out on the residuals to ensure that the underlying assumptions of the model were satisfied. These tests helped validate the model\u0026rsquo;s appropriateness and its reliability in making long-run inferences.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eNormality Test of Residuals:\u003c/strong\u003e The Jarque-Bera (JB) test was applied to examine whether the residuals followed a normal distribution. While normality is not a strict requirement for OLS estimators to remain unbiased and consistent, it is crucial for valid hypothesis testing in small samples. The test results showed that the residuals were normally distributed, supporting the robustness of the model\u0026rsquo;s statistical inference. \u0026nbsp;\u003cstrong\u003eARDL-Specific Cointegration Test (Bounds Test):\u003c/strong\u003e To determine the existence of a long-run relationship among variables, the ARDL Bounds Test was conducted. Preliminary unit root tests revealed that the variables were integrated of different orders\u0026mdash;some I(0) and others I(1)\u0026mdash;but none were I(2), fulfilling the core requirement for ARDL application. The Bounds Test confirmed the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship, thereby validating the model\u0026rsquo;s applicability for long-term analysis.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1.2 ARDL Model Regression result \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"7\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 534px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDependent Variable: GDP , \u0026nbsp;Maximum dependent lags: 1 (Automatic selection)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModel selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC), Dynamic regressors (2 lags, automatic):\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 80px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 81px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVariable\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCoefficient\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eStd. Error\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003et-Statistic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eProb. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGDP(-1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.032948\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.133765\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.722113\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT_GDP\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-6.00E-06\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.12E-06\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-2.835272\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0162\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT_REV\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.005346\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.005419\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.986540\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.3451\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT_REV(-1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.019941\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.006319\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-3.155596\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0092\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT_REV(-2)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e34.70326\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e13.93177\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.490945\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0300\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDEBT_SERV\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.119886\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.448475\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.267321\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.7942\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFDI\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.73E-08\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.96E-07\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.047493\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.9630\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFDI(-1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.09E-06\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.55E-07\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.143766\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.2770\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGOVT_POLICY\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-14.46279\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e35.22003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.410641\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.6892\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGOVT_POLICY(-1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-113.4147\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e48.27951\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-2.349128\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0385\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGOVT_POLICY(-2)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-94.91061\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e45.12481\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-2.103291\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0593\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eYEAR_DUMMY\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e72.16246\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e45.21965\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.595821\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1388\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eYEAR_DUMMY(-1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-148.6868\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e43.19062\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-3.442572\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0055\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eYEAR_DUMMY(-2)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-67.16798\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e41.54670\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-1.616686\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1342\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eREVENEU\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.63E-09\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.80E-09\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.906582\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.3841\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eREVENEU(-1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-6.32E-09\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.18E-09\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-2.894256\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0146\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eREVENEU(-2)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e7.42E-09\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.65E-09\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.497299\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0009\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eC\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17.71018\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e64.16869\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.275994\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.7877\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 96px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 102px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 114px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 80px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 81px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eR-squared\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.999619\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 161px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; Mean dependent var\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1128.519\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAdjusted R-squared\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.999030\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 161px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; S.D. dependent var\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e753.0659\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eS.E. of regression\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e23.45851\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 161px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; Akaike info criterion\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.420323\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSum squared resid\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6053.320\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 161px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; Schwarz criterion\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e10.26899\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLog likelihood\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-118.5947\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 161px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; Hannan-Quinn criter.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.686114\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eF-statistic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1696.714\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"3\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 161px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; Durbin-Watson stat\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.000751\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 148px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eProb(F-statistic)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 74px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.000000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 80px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 81px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 151px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"7\" valign=\"bottom\" style=\"width: 534px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNote: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model selection.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1.2 shows EViews result of \u0026nbsp;ARDL model investigates the dynamic impact of various factors, particularly debt sustainability indicators, on Ethiopia\u0026apos;s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)..\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLag Structure: The selected ARDL(1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2) model indicates: \u0026nbsp; Current GDP is influenced by its previous period\u0026apos;s value (1 lag).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLagged GDP (GDP(-1)) The coefficient is positive and highly significant (p = 0.0000), indicating strong persistence in economic growth. \u0026nbsp;It implies Ethiopia\u0026apos;s economic growth exhibits strong persistence; past GDP levels have a substantial influence on current GDP, indicating momentum in the economy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Debt-to-GDP Ratio: A higher debt-to-GDP ratio negatively influences Ethiopia\u0026apos;s growth at (p = 0.0162). This suggests that rising debt burdens, relative to the size of the economy, constrain economic growth, consistent with findings from other Sub-Saharan African countries where excessive debt can crowd out productive investment and create macroeconomic instability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDebt-to-Revenue Ratio: Short-Run (Lag 1): Negative and significant (p = 0.0092).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Long-Run (Lag 2): Positive and significant (p = 0.0300). This variable reflects the debt overhang hypothesis. In the short run, higher debt relative to revenue negatively affects growth, potentially due to discouragement of investment. However, in the longer run, if managed well, it can support growth, possibly reflecting delayed fiscal stimulus effects or debt-financed investments that take time to yield returns.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGovernment Policy Change or Transformation: \u0026nbsp;Effect (Lagged): Negative and significant (p = 0.0385) implies past government policy actions, likely related to fiscal or debt management, had a contractionary effect on growth. This aligns with research on Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) where ineffective or poorly timed fiscal policies often worsened debt sustainability and slowed growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRevenue and Growth (Delayed Positive Impact): \u0026nbsp;Short-Run (Lag 1): Negative and significant (p = 0.0146) while \u0026nbsp; Long-Run (Lag 2): Positive and highly significant (p = 0.0009) these indicate while a sudden increase in revenue collection (e.g., through taxation) might have a short-term dampening effect on growth, revenue mobilization significantly supports growth in the longer term. This is consistent with studies showing that aggressive short-term tax hikes can suppress economic activity initially, but efficient domestic resource mobilization supports long-term growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;6. \u0026nbsp;Year Dummy (Covid-19) (-1):The first lag of the Covid-19 dummy captures structural or policy shocks during the pandemic period that adversely affected Ethiopia\u0026apos;s economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn general, The ARDL model results for Ethiopia highlight that economic growth exhibits strong persistence. While high debt-to-GDP ratios are detrimental, the impact of the debt-to-revenue ratio is nuanced, showing short-term negative but long-term positive effects, suggesting the importance of effective debt management. Government policy changes can have contractionary effects, and revenue mobilization, though potentially dampening growth initially, is crucial for long-term support. The COVID-19 pandemic also exerted a significant negative impact. These findings largely resonate with broader trends observed in other developing economies, underscoring the importance of balanced debt management, strategic fiscal policy, and long-term investment planning for sustainable economic growth in Ethiopia.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTherefore, government advised to:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe negative impact of the debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenue ratios on growth highlights the need for prudent borrowing strategies. Debt should be directed toward productive investments with clear growth returns, such as infrastructure, education, and health.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eStrengthen Domestic Revenue Mobilization Since revenue has a delayed positive effect on growth, the government should focus on broadening the tax base, improving tax compliance, and reducing dependency on external borrowing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSince past government policy review and reform negatively affect growth, emphasis should be placed on transparency, efficiency, and accountability in public spending.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe mixed effects of revenue and debt variables across different lags imply that timing matters. The government should consider the short-term trade-offs and long-term benefits of fiscal decisions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEthiopia advised to invest in diversifying its economy, improving institutional capacity, and building buffers to withstand external and internal disruptions.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003eI confirm that I understand Discover Sustainability is an open access journal that levies an article processing charge per articles accepted for publication. By submitting my article, I agree to pay this charge in full if my article is accepted for publication.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI want to apply for an APC discount or waiver. I understand the corresponding author will be asked to provide evidence to support their request, including details of any funding to date (this does not apply to authors covered by our policies for low- and lower-middle income countries).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFunding Declaration\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The study was conducted for academic purposes as part of the authors' independent research.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eEthics Declaration\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe authors affirm that the research presented in this manuscript is original and has been conducted in accordance with ethical standards. This study utilized publicly available time-series data from official sources such as the National Bank of Ethiopia, Ministry of Finance, and World Bank databases. No human participants or animals were involved in this research, and therefore, ethical approval was not required. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest related to the publication of this manuscript. All sources have been properly acknowledged and referenced. The study is the result of the authors’ own analysis and does not represent the views of any institution or funding body. This manuscript has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration by another journal. \u0026nbsp;The authors have agreed to submit it for peer-reviewed publication and are committed to ensuring the integrity and transparency of the research process.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eConsent to Participate Declaration: Not applicable. This study did not involve human participants.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eConsent to Publish Declaration” Not applicable. This study did not involve human participants or identifiable data requiring consent for publication.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eClinical Trial Registration: \u0026nbsp;Clinical trial number: Not applicable. This study is a time-series analysis of publicly available economic data and is not a clinical trial.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eData Availability Statement: \u0026nbsp;All data utilized in this study are publicly available from official sources, specifically the National Bank of Ethiopia, Ministry of Finance, and World Bank databases. Specific datasets and their access links, if applicable, are provided in the methodology section and references.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAkin T, Gunes S. 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(2022) Response of Dependency Ratio on Govern\u0026micro;ent Expenditures in Indonesia. J Asian Finance Econo\u0026micro;ics Bus, \u003cem\u003e9\u003c/em\u003e(2).\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Sustainable Debt sustainability, economic growth, VE ","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6946779/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6946779/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates the dynamic relationship between sustainable debt and economic growth in Ethiopia over the period 1992\u0026ndash;2022. Utilizing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen cointegration approach, and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research explores both short-run and long-run effects of key macroeconomic variables, including GDP, tax revenue, government expenditure, exchange rate, total debt, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The results reveal strong GDP persistence, indicating that past economic performance significantly influences current growth. A higher debt-to-GDP ratio is found to negatively affect growth, underscoring the importance of prudent debt management. The debt-to-revenue ratio and tax revenue exhibit short-term contractionary effects but contribute positively to growth in the long run, reflecting the delayed benefits of fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization. Government policy changes and the COVID-19 pandemic had significant lagged negative impacts, highlighting the economic costs of structural adjustments and global shocks. These findings align with existing literature on fiscal sustainability and provide critical insights for policymakers aiming to balance debt management with growth objectives. The study concludes that sustainable debt practices, supported by effective fiscal policy, are essential for Ethiopia\u0026rsquo;s long-term economic development and resilience.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Time Series Analysis of Sustainable Debt and Economic Growth in Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-31 16:35:57","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6946779/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"92dff4ba-5cc5-4199-a4fa-5d65075dec8c","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 31st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-12T12:25:16+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-31 16:35:57","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6946779","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6946779","identity":"rs-6946779","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}