Tree phylogenetic diversity supports nature’s contributions to people, but is at risk from human population growth

ABSTRACT There is growing evidence for a link between biodiversity and ecosystem function, and for a correlation between human population and the species diversity of plants and animals in a region. Here, we suggest these relationships might not be independent. Using a comprehensive phylogeny of southern African trees and structural equation modelling, we show that human population density correlates with tree phylogenetic diversity and show that this relationship is stronger than the correlation with species richness alone. Further, we demonstrate that areas high in phylogenetic diversity support a greater diversity of ecosystem goods and services, indicating that the evolutionary processes responsible for generating variation among living organisms are also key to the provisioning of nature’s contributions to people. Our results raise the intriguing possibility that the history of human settlement in southern Africa may have been shaped, in part, by the evolutionary history of its tree flora. However, the correlation between human population and tree diversity generates a conflict between people and nature. Our study suggests that future human population growth may threaten the contributions to people provided by intact and phylogenetically diverse ecosystems.