Demographic Transition and Violence Reduction in Brazil: A Quantitative Analysis of Fertility Decline and Homicide Rate Trends (2000–2025) with Projections to 2070

This study examines the parallel demographic transitions occurring in Brazil: the dramatic decline in fertility rates and the significant reduction in homicide rates. Using comprehensive data from 1950-2025 for fertility and 2007-2024 for homicides, we analyze the trajectories, regional variations, and potential interconnections between these demographic phenomena. Mathematical modeling techniques are employed to quantify these trends and project future scenarios. Our findings reveal that Brazil's fertility rate has declined from 6.12 children per woman in 1950 to 1.57 in 2023, with projections indicating a further decrease to 1.44 by 2040 before a slight recovery to 1.50 by 2070. Concurrently, homicide rates have fallen from 26.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018 to 17.9 in 2024, representing a 33% reduction. However, significant regional disparities persist in both indicators, with fertility rates ranging from 1.39 to 2.26 across states and homicide rates varying from 6.8 to 31.2 per 100,000. Through statistical analysis and demographic modeling, we establish correlations between these transitions and socioeconomic factors. The study contributes to understanding how demographic shifts influence public safety outcomes and provides a methodological framework for projecting these trends. Our findings have important implications for policy development in population management, public security, and social welfare in Brazil and similar developing nations experiencing demographic transitions.