A Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting Framework for Fragile Coastal Regions: Evidence from Yemen

A Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting Framework for Fragile Coastal Regions: Evidence from Yemen | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting Framework for Fragile Coastal Regions: Evidence from Yemen Hussein Bakery Hussein Dedy This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9019728/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Cholera remains endemic in Yemen, with recurrent outbreaks strongly influenced by climate variability, fragile health infrastructure, and structural vulnerabilities. Traditional surveillance models often fail to integrate environmental amplification and biological susceptibility dynamics. Poverty, poor health infrastructure, inadequate water and sanitation services, and climate factors such as rainfall and high temperatures are major drivers of cholera risk, while integrating climate and surveillance data enhances early warning system performance [ 1 – 10 ]. Methods A Unified Relative Time (URT) equation integrating epidemiological inertia and environmental-biological exposure was used: Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 03 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 06 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 05 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 03 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9019728","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":602772045,"identity":"c6dc0324-6cb6-4280-905c-d30bce1dc1b9","order_by":0,"name":"Hussein Bakery Hussein Dedy","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABB0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAyjJ2MCQwP5DwsAGyGNsPECsFgYJi4o0kJYGIrQwQLVUnDkM5uHVYi6R/vjDh4I7sv3sOQYGN9vO261tPwy0pcYmGpcWyxk5ZpIzDJ4Zz+x5Y5A4s+128rYziUAtx9JyG3A57EYOGzOPweHEDTdyDA5LArWYHQBqYWw4jEdL+uPPf4Ba9t/IMWz+23Yu2ez8Q0JaEgykGUC2SOQYM0icOWBndoOQLWfemEn2GBw2nnHmWRkwyJITzG4AbUnA55fjwBD78eewbH978jYGCQM7e7Pz6Q8ffKixwakFCXCA4ygRrDKBsHIQYH8AIu2JUzwKRsEoGAUjCQAAa59tN9Tw0SgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Al Thwra hospital Authority","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hussein","middleName":"Bakery Hussein","lastName":"Dedy","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-03 11:38:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9019728/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9019728/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104782780,"identity":"58e9fccd-994b-49d5-ad8d-6e92b84d120c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-17 07:57:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":693142,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"20172030.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9019728/v1_covered_3eb97440-baf4-4612-a4e4-4bbcf74ca66d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting Framework for Fragile Coastal Regions: Evidence from Yemen","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-public-health","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"pubh","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Public Health](http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/pubh/default.aspx","title":"BMC Public Health","twitterHandle":"@BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9019728/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9019728/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eCholera remains endemic in Yemen, with recurrent outbreaks strongly influenced by climate variability, fragile health infrastructure, and structural vulnerabilities. Traditional surveillance models often fail to integrate environmental amplification and biological susceptibility dynamics. 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