A Simple Hidden Markov Model Could Prevent Physician Error in Failure To Diagnose Infectious Mononucleosis

Infectious mononucleosis (Mono) is mostly caused by the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and can spread through infected people sharing food and drinks with others. Once this virus gets into your system, it is there to stay. The virus can get activated when a person has low immunity and can cause major complications. Furthermore, if physicians miss the diagnosis of this disease, and prescribe penicillin-based antibiotics, it can cause severe rash and adverse reactions that compromise patient safety. This paper develops a simple Hidden Markov Model using which a Viterbi algorithm provides the maximum a posteriori probability estimate for the most likely hidden state path, given a sequence of symptoms arising as observations from a patient with hidden EBV positive or negative states. Apart from bringing awareness to help reduce missed diagnoses and subsequent adverse events, this work provides a tool for health care systems to better incorporate prompts during electronic medical record (EMR) interactions to help physicians catch potential missed diagnoses during a visit. This research demonstrates how statistical models can be used to assess likelihood of underlying conditions that require tests to be offered by physicians in order to make a definitive diagnosis. The model developed and applied herein for estimating likelihood of EBV infection from a series of observations has the potential to alter guidelines within healthcare systems to ensure that the safety of patients, particularly teens, is not compromised due to a lack of definitive diagnosis for Mono at point of care.