An Assessment of the Potential of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Application in South Africa – System Dynamics Perspective

An Assessment of the Potential of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Application in South Africa – System Dynamics Perspective | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An Assessment of the Potential of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Application in South Africa – System Dynamics Perspective Gontse Mathibedi, Kgabo Mokgohloa, Tumelo Seadira, Kemllal Ramdass This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6914719/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract South Africa’s coal-powered electricity grid, which supplies over 85% of the country’s power, experienced major load shedding in 2022. With electricity demand expected to double by 2025, there has been rapid growth in rooftop solar systems — increasing from 1,000 MW in 2022 to 5,000 MW by 2024. This study uses System Dynamics (SD) modeling and Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) to explore key factors driving change, including power outages, social inequality, and weather patterns. It highlights how feedback loops are shaping the energy transition: for instance, frequent load shedding encourages more households and businesses to install solar panels, while cloudy or rainy weather reduces their effectiveness. These dynamics point to the urgent need for both fair energy policies and technical solutions to support a more sustainable and reliable electricity system. Energy Transition Solar PV Renewable Energy Load Shedding Equity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6914719","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":473025270,"identity":"cf1ff3d7-0a1a-482a-b80b-6b96a3a9ae92","order_by":0,"name":"Gontse Mathibedi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABL0lEQVRIie2RMUvDQBTHXzhIHM5mvZBiv8JFoShI/CoXAnFx6BhQMBK4LPkAlX6Jil/gSqBdMkskDhFXh3bLoOglgjgctqPg/aa74/14//cOQKP5gxhZtmgIvfJteRbstH9LflVQXob0OF6GjqwTLNpBsaZsTOISGXMhFYh2CLafi4g8chMdPZRUNDIZrdN03YI/ArtoVIqT3RQnt3w4GNcXVDCZjD4tuJND6CWwpCrFy0VQO7JLrwRtAbQKOGBATM6kVM4qRt13joz7Wd/lo1PSzRtcM0DWWqUYU3ZISDe+2yuiUxIXQ8HAxMouRrdkIpdM6mgilRA7Mpg7pCuPYzxRKt9fOQvvnlvmHwyq85fNa3w5su3VXKX8YK+Pgb8u8mxuqZdYzfYajUaj+Zd8AmJ9aBWOz1JjAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of South Africa","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gontse","middleName":"","lastName":"Mathibedi","suffix":""},{"id":473025271,"identity":"8af4ba30-7ba7-4a17-85d2-cdfd2f4aa19a","order_by":1,"name":"Kgabo Mokgohloa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of South Africa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kgabo","middleName":"","lastName":"Mokgohloa","suffix":""},{"id":473025272,"identity":"d60feca6-4c68-4db2-9bb1-d83d18c01e2a","order_by":2,"name":"Tumelo Seadira","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of South Africa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tumelo","middleName":"","lastName":"Seadira","suffix":""},{"id":473025273,"identity":"751f281c-dc68-4cd7-9c9d-ae377253d882","order_by":3,"name":"Kemllal Ramdass","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of South Africa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kemllal","middleName":"","lastName":"Ramdass","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-17 13:08:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6914719/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6914719/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86340866,"identity":"b83d344e-a727-4cb8-ab24-95a3b36c54e5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-09 14:14:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":580770,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AnAssessmentofthePotentialofSolarPhotovoltaicPVApplicationinSouthAfricaSystemDynamicsPerspective0.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6914719/v1_covered_dfb21af1-ae5b-46e9-be69-3fe4edc38d09.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"An Assessment of the Potential of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Application in South Africa – System Dynamics Perspective","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy Transition, Solar PV, Renewable Energy, Load Shedding, Equity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6914719/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6914719/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSouth Africa\u0026rsquo;s coal-powered electricity grid, which supplies over 85% of the country\u0026rsquo;s power, experienced major load shedding in 2022. 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