The tragedy of the cows: exploring the short and long-term warming effect of methane emissions in agricultural mitigation

Abstract This paper investigates how the short-lived character of methane could have important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture, sector which is often seen to have a limited contribution to a net-zero carbon economy. Motivated by the renewed attention for the short-term versus long-term warming effects of methane, we explore how various appreciations of global warming affect cost-efficient mitigation policies and dietary transitions, and the implied warming. Results show that the choice of a particular metric is decisive if used to determine optimal mitigation options. For instance, focusing on the long-term warming effect of agricultural methane emissions could lead to a higher relevance of low meat diets relative to stringent mitigation policies. Moreover, a combination of stringent mitigation and dietary changes could help reverse the contribution of agriculture to global warming.