Toward a Pandemic-Resilient City: The Effects of Spatial Development Models of the City on the Spread of Covid-19

This research aims to assess the effect of the spatial development model of cities on the spread of airborne pandemics, specifically COVID-19, with a particular focus on Mashhad, Iran. In order to achieve this aim, the conceptual assessment model of urban resilience against the COVID-19 pandemic was developed after reviewing the background. Utilizing ArcGIS spatial statistics, the relationship between 91 spatial indices and COVID-19 patient statistics in various urban areas over a long period of time comprised of five distinct waves of prevalence was evaluated. Consequently, the spatial components associated with population density, urban traffic, and spatial congestion in the city had a significantly greater impact on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison with the intensity of land use or open spaces, and unlike many studies, social vulnerability components such as level of education and income in underprivileged areas had no significant impact on the prevalence rate during most waves. Finally, the recommendations for enhancing resilience focus on decentralization of activities and urban centers to reduce congestion and promote a balanced spatial distribution of flows and densities of urban traffic. Considering the causal relationship between variables and spatial pathology, in this case, designing a connected and continuous network of eco-friendly transportation and preserving the city's ecological breathing sites from overload, are essential components of a pandemic-resilient city.