Predicting uptake and elimination kinetics of chemicals in invertebrates: a technical note on residual variance modeling

Toxicokinetic models for predicting contents of nanomaterials and other toxic chemicals are often fitted without evaluation of the residual variance structure. The aim of the present study was to evaluate various residual variance structures, assuming either homoscedasticity or heteroscedasticity, when fitting non-linear toxicokinetic one-compartment models for predicting uptake, bioaccumulation and elimination of chemicals in invertebrate organisms. Data describing the exposure of several aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates to specific metal nanomaterials and other chemicals were available from real experiments for evaluating the residual variance functions for toxicokinetic models. As proof of concept, datasets of truly homoscedastic and heteroscedastic nature were simulated. Depending the dataset, applying models with different residuals variance assumption largely affected the residual plots and the error margins of parameters or the predicted content of a chemical. Consequently, selecting the most accurate residual variance functions for toxicokinetic modeling, either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic, improves the prediction of chemical contents in invertebrate organisms and the estimation of the associated uptake and elimination rates. Highlights Residual plots indicate if an accurate model was fitted to the toxicological data Choice of residual variance function affects the error margins of predicted chemicals Selecting proper residual variance models may prevent false positives and negatives