Technical Analysis Meets Machine Learning: Bitcoin Evidence

In this note, we make a comparison between a novel machine learning method, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and two trading strategies using technical analysis: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence with Average Directional Index (MACD+ADX). The purpose is to use trading signals to maximize profits in the Bitcoin digital commodity. The comparison was motivated by the approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 9, 2024. The results show that the LSTM algorithm delivers a cumulative return of approximately 65.23% over a testing period of less than nine months, significantly outperforming both the EMA and MACD+ADX strategies, as well as the baseline buy-and-hold approach typically followed by fundamental investors. Our work highlights the potential for further integration between machine learning and technical analysis in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency markets.